Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Quixotic]

Have they sampled anything yet? I forgot where the dropsonde info is. Been too long.

[Ntxw]

Euro will put more at edge.

lol.

I'm on the Edge of Glory, and I'm hanging on a moment of truth.

I was teasing it's a great run for I-30. Back to a foot.

[snownado]

lol.

I'm on the Edge of Glory, and I'm hanging on a moment of truth.

I was teasing it's a great run for I-30. Back to a foot.

It's no worse than the 00z and 06z runs, at least.

[Quixotic]

Euro will put more at edge.

lol.

I'm on the Edge of Glory, and I'm hanging on a moment of truth.

You’re about 15-20 miles west of me. So we are both kinda in the same boat.

[orangeblood]

King Euro trends

0z


6z


12z

[bubba hotep]

Some minor changes on the Euro at 500mb. This run looks a tad cooler, and the coastal low is stronger and closer to the coast.

[Ntxw]

King Euro trends

0z
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736121600/1736618400-kfPLORO7GrA.png

6z
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736143200/1736618400-n1lbzVVifTM.png

12z
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736618400-dJ4e8RtU074.png

There's another battle going on between the Euro/EPS and the other guidance. It's been going towards the eastern/northeastern idea with the best QPF vs the western regions with temps and some qpf. Something to watch as our posters come from a wide range.

[txtwister78]

Probably best example of what you want to see/look for going forward in terms of trends in the high-res guidance for a bigger snow event across areas further north. Much earlier start time with precip developing over SC TX on this run of the FV3 where sleet and snow already mixing. Upper levels cold enough all over at that point. NAM similar although doesn't generate precip until early Thursday morning. Something to watch. Sometimes these events can be a little early than what models depict several days out so let's track where our system is and see if models adjust.

[snownado]

King Euro trends

0z
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736121600/1736618400-kfPLORO7GrA.png

6z
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736143200/1736618400-n1lbzVVifTM.png

12z
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736618400-dJ4e8RtU074.png

Verbatim, some of that is sleet contaminated.

But I'm just happy the NW shifts have stopped.

[Ralph's Weather]

Keys right now are placement of the Gulf low and mid/low level WAA intensity.

Hi-Res models are indicating that globals are overdoing WAA ahead of and during the event. It'll be a battle between the Rockies high CAA and the surface low WAA. The placement of the Gulf low goes a long ways towards deciding where the battle zone is. It should set up somewhere within a Temple to Austin NE towards Texarkana to Shreveport box. The battle zone will feature all precip types. 50 miles south and its mainly rain or freezing rain depending on surface temps. 50 miles north and its all snow.

[rwfromkansas]

One thing I will say is this is not a situation where we are 50 degrees the day before. So, I know many are saying there will be melting, but there many not be as much melting as typical with a marginal setup. It may cool the ground/roads more quickly than usual here despite being above freezing before the event.

[txtwister78]

Keys right now are placement of the Gulf low and mid/low level WAA intensity.

Hi-Res models are indicating that globals are overdoing WAA ahead of and during the event. It'll be a battle between the Rockies high CAA and the surface low WAA. The placement of the Gulf low goes a long ways towards deciding where the battle zone is. It should set up somewhere within a Temple to Austin NE towards Texarkana to Shreveport box. The battle zone will feature all precip types. 50 miles south and its mainly rain or freezing rain depending on surface temps. 50 miles north and its all snow.

Yup mentioned the coastal low earlier but at this range, you go with high-res guidance in my opinion and that looks colder as it stands right now and if precip can get going sooner that what globals indicate, that adds even more confidence in precip types being adjusted further south again (including all snow into the DFW region).

18z NAM should be interesting as well as other short range guidance to see if these colder profile temps hold and whether we see more uptick in precip earlier.

[Ntxw]

The cold at the end of the GFS run coming into the US. Why not throw in late January 1949 -PNA.

[gpsnowman]

The cold at the end of the GFS run coming into the US. Why not throw in late January 1949 -PNA.

Jan 49 went below zero I believe. The next month or so looks really good.

[Ntxw]

EPS keeps ticking up. Notice again it's SW to NE strip of high totals along I-20/I-30.

[Nederlander]

This is setting up to really suck here north of Houston

[txtwister78]

One more example of what I was referring to above regarding short range modeling. Latest RAP extended has 543-546 thickness profiles all the way into south Texas Wednesday morning and also hints at developing light mixed precipitation with a 1041 HP sitting over Central Oklahoma. Not something I'm seeing on globals for sure. Subtle but important differences can make all the difference as you look for details that can mean so much later on.

[bubba hotep]

EPS keeps ticking up. Notice again it's SW to NE strip of high totals along I-20/I-30.

https://i.imgur.com/mApgu3p.png

This makes me weak in the knees.

[Quixotic]

EPS keeps ticking up. Notice again it's SW to NE strip of high totals along I-20/I-30.

https://i.imgur.com/mApgu3p.png

Unbelievable. Wish I could fast forward to Wednesday night.

[WacoWx]

FWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1228 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold weather will continue through the rest of the
workweek, with wind chill values in the teens Tuesday and
Wednesday morning.

- Confidence is high that most of North and Central Texas will see
wintry precipitation Wednesday night through Friday morning.
There is increasing confidence in a more impactful winter storm
during this timeframe, including snowfall accumulations >4".

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/

The short term forecast period continues to be very cold but free
of precipitation due to very dry air in place behind Sunday`s
arctic front. Wind chill values this morning were in the single
digits across most of North and Central Texas due to gusty north
winds, but these wind speeds are now beginning to decline as
surface high pressure settles across the Central and Southern
Plains. Strong cold advection will offset warming due to
insolation this afternoon with highs only reaching the mid and
upper 30s for most. It will still be quite cold overnight with
wind chill values in the teens, but our forecast area should
safely remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

Increasing cloud cover will spread in from the west overnight
into tomorrow, and this canopy of cloud cover will also limit
daytime warming with highs in the the 30s again. Some radar
echoes may make an appearance as mid-level saturation increases
in advance of our potent winter storm system later in the
workweek. However, with very dry air in the lowest 12,000 ft, it
will essentially be impossible for any precipitation to fall from
this cloud deck tomorrow as it would immediately sublimate within
the drier sub-cloud airmass.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 328 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025/
/Tuesday Night and Beyond/

Confidence continues to increase in a potentially impactful winter
storm across much of North and Central Texas during the second
half of the work week. By Tuesday night, an impressive upper-level
low will sink south toward Baja California setting the stage for
what could be quite the snow event across much of the region.
Climatologically, this upper-level pattern favors more long
duration, large areal coverage snow events across North and
Central Texas with a near continuous supply of 700mb-500mb Pacific
moisture streaming overhead from the southwest. This Pacific fetch
of moisture content keeps the dendritic growth zone saturated, a
layer in the atmosphere between -12C and -18C favorable for ice
crystal development and growth. A very dry layer of air beneath
700mb will prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground
until we tap into a southeast-northwest oriented plume of 850mb
Gulf moisture Wednesday evening.

So, we will have the moisture and we will have the lift. Now we
just need temperatures to be cold enough through entire
atmospheric column to produce snow. And here in Texas, we are used
to our winter weather events being a game of just a few degrees,
because as we know slightly colder or slightly warmer temperatures
can lead to drastically different final results. At this time,
ensemble and deterministic guidance favors temperatures profiles
supportive of snow across much of North Texas and a rain-snow mix
over Central Texas with a deepening surface low along the Texas
Coast keeping cold, northerly low-level flow over our forecast
area. This Baja California cut-off low synoptic setup is known for
having warmer temperatures aloft which could bring some warm-nose,
wintry mix action to locations south of I-20. Right now, this
layer (if to materialize) looks shallow and cool enough to support
primarily sleet rather than freezing rain. Still can`t rule a
light glazing in portions of our Central Texas and Brazos Valley
counties.

The devil is in the details, so let`s break it down:

Timing: Although some models try to start wintry precipitation in
our western North and Central counties early Wednesday afternoon,
the vast majority of guidance starts our event later Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night. Precipitation will overspread much
of our area from southwest to northeast during the day Thursday
exiting to the east Friday morning.

Amounts: Confidence is growing that a large portion of our
forecast area will see impactful snow accumulations. The most
likely amounts now range from 2-4" generally from the Red River
down toward a Goldthwaite-Hillsboro-Canton line. Higher totals are
certainly possible within this area with a 30-40% chance that
totals exceed 6" through Friday morning. Lower totals are expected
down in the Brazos Valley and the Killeen-Temple MSA with a
~30-40% chance that this area misses out on the snow event
entirely.

Type: It is still a bit too early to be confident in the
precipitation type and precisely where and when
rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain will occur. We are entering the
range of some medium-range guidance and will soon gain access to
high-resolution guidance that will help us make these distinctions
over the next 2-3 days.

Other than that, expect highs in the 30s Wednesday and Thursday
with a gradual warm-up into the 40s this weekend. Overnight lows
will dip into the 20s each night with lows in the 30s increasingly
possible by Friday morning. Stay warm, bundle up, and prepare for
an increasingly likely impactful winter weather event later this
week!

Langfeld