Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Interesting that the 06Z GFS 2m temps forecast for International Falls, MN was off by 20 degrees just 6 hours out (-25F forecast, -45F measured):

[srainhoutx]

Interesting that the 06Z GFS 2m temps forecast for International Falls, MN was off by 20 degrees just 6 hours out (-25F forecast, -45F measured):

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/inlgfs6zjan2.gif

Excellent illustration as to how far off the MOS/MAV/MEX text forecasts are busting left and right.

[gpsnowman]

If the cold does stick around I am beginning to wonder if the rain forecast next week has frozen potential. Snow please.

[wxman57]

Interesting that the 06Z GFS 2m temps forecast for International Falls, MN was off by 20 degrees just 6 hours out (-25F forecast, -45F measured):

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/inlgfs6zjan2.gif

Excellent illustration as to how far off the MOS/MAV/MEX text forecasts are busting left and right.

Note that the observed temperature at International Falls was -38F at 12AM, but the GFS initialized the temperature at -25F. I'm getting cold just typing that...

[Portastorm]

Attempting to put aside my cold bias ... I'm at a loss to understand why people would think Texas temps will moderate so quickly next week after starting out so cold? Honestly ... if you've made any attempt to follow weather over the years here, especially winter weather, these Arctic/polar airmasses don't erode in a day or two. And the models ALWAYS seem to forecast that happening. As much as we see a winter storm in the GFS at Day 12, we see an Arctic airmass eroded after a day or two. Neither seldom verify.

All I'm saying here is that if you believe the depth of the cold air to impact the state early next week, then you're really kidding yourself if you think it'll be gone by Wednesday. I don't care what computer model is showing it ... it's bunk.

[gpsnowman]

The Weather Channel is great for many things. The coverage of the snow and blizzard looming for New England is fun to watch. This particular storm is named "Hercules". Vomit. I really can not stand the naming of winter storms. I cringe every time I hear the anchors mention the "name" of a winter storm. It seems very smug and arrogant. Do they think people of New England in twenty years are going to be reminiscing about winters past and say "Remember Hercules? Now that was a storm." Arrrgh!!!

[Lagreeneyes03]

Attempting to put aside my cold bias ... I'm at a loss to understand why people would think Texas temps will moderate so quickly next week after starting out so cold? Honestly ... if you've made any attempt to follow weather over the years here, especially winter weather, these Arctic/polar airmasses don't erode in a day or two. And the models ALWAYS seem to forecast that happening. As much as we see a winter storm in the GFS at Day 12, we see an Arctic airmass eroded after a day or two. Neither seldom verify.

All I'm saying here is that if you believe the depth of the cold air to impact the state early next week, then you're really kidding yourself if you think it'll be gone by Wednesday. I don't care what computer model is showing it ... it's bunk.

Agreed-look how long it took for it to moderate after Icemageddeon in DFW, partially from snow pack I'm sure but partially because it does not just go away. It's laughable how TWC (just watching for the entertainment value) is predicting the arctic airmass through Friday with the winter storm then 40's and rain up there in the NE by Sunday. Those folks are going to be in for a rude awakening of snow on top of snow, not rain to wash it away IMO.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Strong cold front has progressed across the area this morning leaving cold and gusty north winds in its wake.

Temperatures have continued to fall this morning under strong cold air advection regime in progress with current readings in the low to mid 30’s up north and near 40 along the coast with N winds of 15-25mph and gusts to 40mph. In the past hour Galveston has gusted to 40mph. Low temperatures combined with the strong winds have driven wind chill values into the low 20’s over our northern counties. A wind advisory is in effect for the central and southern parts of the area today, but think this will be marginal with only a few gust to near 40mph mainly before noon. High level cirrus clouds continue to spill NNE across the area, but should gradually push southward leaving mainly clear skies by late afternoon. Not sure temperatures will warm much…and think the mid to upper 40’s this afternoon will be all we can manage under continued cold air advection and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Quick hitting polar high will be situated over N TX tonight leading to a very cold night across the region. Dewpoints falling into the 10’s and 20’s by late this afternoon with clear skies and expected light winds will result in a widespread freeze across the area tonight. Lows will likely range from the mid 20’s up north to upper 20’s along US 59 to near freezing along the coast. Could see a few locations very near hard freeze criteria tonight especially in those usually cold locations (Conroe).

Polar high moves quickly eastward Friday with southerly wind returning. Clouds expand northward on Saturday and possibly enough moisture return for a few showers with temperatures warming back into the 60’s in a similar day to New Year’s Day.

Big question is how strong will be next front be on Sunday. Pretty good pool of very cold air currently over NW Canada and this appears poised to head SE into the US this weekend. Appears TX will be on the SW edge of this bitter cold air mass, but close enough to possibly produce some of the coldest weather since early 2011. Arctic boundary should pass across the region Sunday morning with temperatures quickly falling during the day on Sunday. GFS model is forecasting some “really” low dewpoints into the 10’s and 1’s across the region by next Monday and with mainly clear skies and a 1038mb arctic high centered over OK by Monday evening it could get fairly cold by Tuesday morning. Current GFS model guidance shows IAH falling to 25 Tuesday morning suggesting hard freeze criteria will be possible for a large part of the region NW of US 59 with lows possibly in the 10’s over our northern counties (GFS currently showing a 21 for College Station). Will have to keep a close eye on just how much of this cold air moves southward and potentially how cold it could get across the area early next week.

Climate:

2013 ended just as the previous four years with below average rainfall across much of the area. BUSH IAH ended the year with 38.84 inches of rainfall or 10.93 inches below normal. Hobby Airport ended 11.59 inches below normal and Galveston 11.52 inches below normal. College Station faired the best with a rainfall departure of only .71 of an inch below normal. I took a look back at the climate for the past 10 years at BUSH IAH and some impressive rainfall statistics emerged.

The normal annual rainfall for BUSH IAH is 49.77 inches:

Recorded rainfall by year:

2003: 45.76

2004: 65.06

2005: 41.21

2006: 57.86

2007: 65.52

2008: 53.00



2009: 47.01

2010: 42.72

2011: 24.57

2013: 42.32

2013: 38.84

The 5-yr total from 2003 to 2008 was 328.85 inches or 79.56 inches above normal for that 5-yr period

The 5-yr total from 2009 to 2013 was 195.46 inches or 53.39 inches below normal

Note that 2013 is the second driest year in the past 10 years only behind the severe drought year of 2011.

To put this into some perspective there is a 132.95 inch rainfall difference between the first 5-yr block and the second 5-yr block. The last 5 years have been very dry across the region and this dry pattern started after the landfall of Hurricane Ike in September 2008. However if you average out the rainfall over the past 10 years BUSH IAH is running a 26.17 inch rainfall surplus and this is due to the “very wet” years from 2003 to 2008 especially 2004 and 2007. A longer term trend in the climate signal would show a rainfall surplus for the area even though the last five years have been dry. It is also interesting to note that the rainfall deficit from 2009 to 2013 of 53.59 inches is over an entire year’s worth of rainfall missing (49.77 inches) where the period from 2003 to 2008 has a surplus of 79.56 inches or well over a year’s worth of rainfall on the positive side…so both astounding statistics effectively cancel each other out in the 10 year averaging of the rainfall.

On the temperature side of things 2013 ended slightly below normal (-.3 of a degree) and this coming off of the hottest year ever recorded for Houston in 2012 and previous very warm years in 2011 and 2010. Much of this cooling was in December which averaged almost 2-4 degrees below normal across the region…so yes it has been cold so far this winter.

[dhweather]

The Weather Channel is great for many things. The coverage of the snow and blizzard looming for New England is fun to watch. This particular storm is named "Hercules". Vomit. I really can not stand the naming of winter storms. I cringe every time I hear the anchors mention the "name" of a winter storm. It seems very smug and arrogant. Do they think people of New England in twenty years are going to be reminiscing about winters past and say "Remember Hercules? Now that was a storm." Arrrgh!!!

The arrogance of TWC is sickening. I don't watch them because of this and their deviation from their core mission, WEATHER.

[Portastorm]

So far, through 120 hours, the 12z GFS deterministic (operational) run is not backing off on the cold for Texas early next week. Numbers look very similar to the 0z run. But it's after this point where I think the model goes on crack. For example, with progged lows in the mid 20s on Tuesday (1/7) morning, the model shows progged lows near 50 on Wednesday morning (1/8). A 25-degree warm up?! Yeah, the winds are out of the south on Wednesday for the first time of the week but c'mon man! The only way you see that kind of warm up in my part of the state is if you get a screaming southwest wind out of the Mexican desert. Sorry, I'm not buying that rubbish.

[gboudx]

But we want cold AND precip. It's like those Ford Fusion commercials. AND is better.

"I wonder what these nuts are for".

[wxman57]

Attempting to put aside my cold bias ... I'm at a loss to understand why people would think Texas temps will moderate so quickly next week after starting out so cold? Honestly ... if you've made any attempt to follow weather over the years here, especially winter weather, these Arctic/polar airmasses don't erode in a day or two. And the models ALWAYS seem to forecast that happening. As much as we see a winter storm in the GFS at Day 12, we see an Arctic airmass eroded after a day or two. Neither seldom verify.

All I'm saying here is that if you believe the depth of the cold air to impact the state early next week, then you're really kidding yourself if you think it'll be gone by Wednesday. I don't care what computer model is showing it ... it's bunk.

I have no such cold bias to put aside, but I'm looking at guidance for next week and see a VERY progressive pattern. Deep upper low over the Great Lakes moves east quite fast. Flow across Texas changes from light NW at 850mb Mon/Tue to strong SW winds by Wednesday and rather deep flow off the Gulf by Thursday. That's not a cold flow pattern.

[weatherguy425]

So far, through 120 hours, the 12z GFS deterministic (operational) run is not backing off on the cold for Texas early next week. Numbers look very similar to the 0z run. But it's after this point where I think the model goes on crack. For example, with progged lows in the mid 20s on Tuesday (1/7) morning, the model shows progged lows near 50 on Wednesday morning (1/8). A 25-degree warm up?! Yeah, the winds are out of the south on Wednesday for the first time of the week but c'mon man! The only way you see that kind of warm up in my part of the state is if you get a screaming southwest wind out of the Mexican desert. Sorry, I'm not buying that rubbish.

And, at least the 6z, had a return to a cold/stormy pattern mid month - that some have already alluded too. Whether we see significant, long-lasting cold, or not, this isn't exactly a high and dry, burn your eyes kind of a pattern

[Portastorm]

Attempting to put aside my cold bias ... I'm at a loss to understand why people would think Texas temps will moderate so quickly next week after starting out so cold? Honestly ... if you've made any attempt to follow weather over the years here, especially winter weather, these Arctic/polar airmasses don't erode in a day or two. And the models ALWAYS seem to forecast that happening. As much as we see a winter storm in the GFS at Day 12, we see an Arctic airmass eroded after a day or two. Neither seldom verify.

All I'm saying here is that if you believe the depth of the cold air to impact the state early next week, then you're really kidding yourself if you think it'll be gone by Wednesday. I don't care what computer model is showing it ... it's bunk.

I have no such cold bias to put aside, but I'm looking at guidance for next week and see a VERY progressive pattern. Deep upper low over the Great Lakes moves east quite fast. Flow across Texas changes from light NW at 850mb Mon/Tue to strong SW winds by Wednesday and rather deep flow off the Gulf by Thursday. That's not a cold flow pattern.

OK, seriously, take off your model watching hat and put on your general weather observation hat. Do you honestly believe we'll have winds swinging wildly out of multiple directions like that within a day or two of each other? How could the pattern possibly be that progressive, especially when dealing with Arctic air?!

It very well may have happened in the past and I just don't remember, but that scenario seems highly improbable to me.

[wxman57]

Here's a screenshot of my workstation depicting 10m wind and dew point forecast for next Thursday. Contours are in deg. C. With a deepening onshore flow by Thursday our dew points are in the low 60s. Yes, I do believe winds can switch around that quickly. The cold advection ends on Tuesday afternoon. Warm advection begins Tuesday night and becomes quite significant by Wednesday night. Dew points near 68F across Houston by Friday.

Note that the cold air has not chilled the water temperatures very far offshore, as most of the cold air pushes have been rather shallow. Water temps just 100 miles offshore remain in the 70s.

[Portastorm]

I do not and cannot doubt the data you show and certainly won't doubt your knowledge. So, I'll check my skepticism at the door in deference to your comments, wxman57. But I don't mind saying that I'm going to be one very surprised person next week if the weather ends up behaving that way. That would be an extraordinary turnaround.

[gpsnowman]

Here's a screenshot of my workstation depicting 10m wind and dew point forecast for next Thursday. Contours are in deg. C. With a deepening onshore flow by Thursday our dew points are in the low 60s. Yes, I do believe winds can switch around that quickly. The cold advection ends on Tuesday afternoon. Warm advection begins Tuesday night and becomes quite significant by Wednesday night. Dew points near 68F across Houston by Friday.

Note that the cold air has not chilled the water temperatures very far offshore, as most of the cold air pushes have been rather shallow. Water temps just 100 miles offshore remain in the 70s.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/EC.gif

Dew point maps?!?! He has everything. Not fair.

[wxman57]

Dew point maps?!?! He has everything. Not fair.

I plot dew point temps starting at about 8F above coastal water temps in order to predict fog closures of the Houston Ship Channel. Looks like about a 36hr closure starting next Thursday afternoon/evening as warm, moist air flows over water that has been chilled to near 50 deg.

12Z GFS coming in. It's quite similar to the 00Z Euro, indicating a deepening Gulf flow by Wednesday. Here's a map for 18Z Thursday indicating dew points of 64F over Houston:



And by Friday afternoon, lots of warm, moist Gulf flow love over much of Texas:



And to top that off, a 12Z GFS meteogram for Houston. Note the 70F dew point rise from 9am Tue to 9am Thu. I sort of doubt that forecast of -5F dew point on Tuesday, though.

[dhweather]

From the FTW AFD. The single most thing I hate about winter:

VERY
DRY AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT
RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO -10 DEGREES F.
EXPECT A LOT OF SHOCKS FROM STATIC ELECTRICITY IN THIS DRY OF AIR.
THE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

[Rgv20]

I can always count on the Crazy Canadian (12zCMC) for entertainment On Tuesday it has my area in the mid 30 with a little bit of rain.