Texas Winter 2018-2019

[jasons2k]

When I lived up in the DFW area, I prayed for the most severe arctic blasts we could get. Coming from Florida and SE Georgia, this was a novelty to me, although I remember the Tampa snow of 1977, the cold snap of 1983, and later in Savannah, GA, we hit 3 degrees in 1985.

I moved to Plano in 1988 and was greeted my first couple of years up there with some impressive cold snaps, ice and snow. During one of the cold snaps the schools were closed - not from snow or ice, but from the gas curtailment to commercial buildings because it was so cold.

It's when I first learned the term "sublimation" from Harold Taft, the legendary forecaster on KXAS.

Anyway, now that I live down in SE Texas, I don't like the cold weather so much. Gardners down here inevitably plant tropical plants because they are sold at the local garden centers, and they tend to thrive in years when we don't have a hard freeze, especially in protected microclimates. So, with some work, your back yard can look lot like a yard in Florida (where I'm originally from). So for us gardening enthusiasts, the last thing we want to see is a blocking pattern with a cold dump down the plains.

But I have to admit - I remember those days up in Plano, seeing it snowing outside, and having that adrenaline rush while watching Harold on Channel 5 proclaim "There isn't anything between us and that Siberian Air but a barbed wire fence...."

As for this weekend - it looks like I'm gonna spend my Friday evening/Saturday morning covering plants, wrapping pipes, faucets, etc.

Get ready.

PS: Tim Heller did his last Weathercast last Friday night. I remember seeing him up in Dallas and then he moved down here too.

[missygirl810]

Who else isn't going to get any any sleep for the next month?

Me!!

[orangeblood]

I sure hope the drastic shift to +PNA/progressive look shown on both the GFS and CMC isn’t a trend....that will destroy most of our chances over next 2 weeks if true. Has killed most of our chances the past 2-3 years with that look

I’ve been concerned with progressive look on the ENS the past few runs as well, need to start seeing lower the heights west of us to have a decent shot at wintry weather

[harp]

0Z GFS drastically different and not in a good way.

[Ntxw]

I sure hope the drastic shift to +PNA/progressive look shown on both the GFS and CMC isn’t a trend....that will destroy most of our chances over next 2 weeks if true. Has killed most of our chances the past 2-3 years with that look

I’ve been concerned with progressive look on the ENS the past few runs as well, need to start seeing lower the heights west of us to have a decent shot at wintry weather

We always knew suppression was a risk. There is such a thing as too much cold. Luckily we're still staring way out there and it will likely change a few more times.

[Cpv17]

+PNA

[Brent]

I sure hope the drastic shift to +PNA/progressive look shown on both the GFS and CMC isn’t a trend....that will destroy most of our chances over next 2 weeks if true. Has killed most of our chances the past 2-3 years with that look

I’ve been concerned with progressive look on the ENS the past few runs as well, need to start seeing lower the heights west of us to have a decent shot at wintry weather

that would be just our luck here

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/1085035975892520961

[Lagreeneyes03]

I sure hope the drastic shift to +PNA/progressive look shown on both the GFS and CMC isn’t a trend....that will destroy most of our chances over next 2 weeks if true. Has killed most of our chances the past 2-3 years with that look

I’ve been concerned with progressive look on the ENS the past few runs as well, need to start seeing lower the heights west of us to have a decent shot at wintry weather

that would be just our luck here

Exactly what I said earlier..."Too cold to snow"...either that or "Just a cold rain". We can't win lately. This climate change is nuts.

[MississippiWx]

Oof. Some of you are going to drive yourselves silly getting hyped or beat down over individual operational runs. The cold is coming. Just be patient on the storm.

[Ralph's Weather]

Oof. Some of you are going to drive yourselves silly getting hyped or beat down over individual operational runs. The cold is coming. Just be patient on the storm.

Yep, the trend this year is for models to back storms into the SW as the timeframe nears. We have seen this rodeo several times already this winter. Yall are crazy letting your emotions ride on 7+ day op GFS surface plots.

[Brent]

0z Euro snow Saturday mostly north of the Red River

mid-week storm next week maybe a few flakes as it ends next Wednesday morning in DFW. Not as cold as the weekend system overall

[gpsnowman]

Well fart. Not good at all!!! Ok, lots of variations coming the next few days regarding the storm next week. It is not over by any means. Plenty of time for positive trends. A winter soap opera is upon us.
https://youtu.be/98T3PVaRrHU

[Cerlin]

All I want in life is just a little bit of snow...is that too hard to ask weather gods?

[WinterMax]

Dang, I understand the idea of not focusing and believing every individual run, but this is ridiculous, haha, all that red brutal cold completely disappeared in just a few hours. Can it miraculously reappear now? I know almost nothing about weather patterns, but from the performance of these models, I guess it can just reappear. Things disappear and reappear all the time with the GFS.

[stormlover2013]

rule of thumb, don't trust a model till a day or 2 out!!! Especially winter weather in Texas, Models always struggle with it.

[wxman57]

I had the last two GFS runs factor in my newly-built wall along the Canadian border. Last section of the wall is scheduled for completion on Sunday, which means no more strong front next Wednesday.

Euro has a disturbance moving across Texas next Wednesday, bringing in a little cooler air for mid-week but no new influx of cold air from Canada. Looking at the 500mb projected flow, both the EC & GFS indicate only a brief period of cross-Polar flow this weekend, then it goes away through day 10 in the EC and day 16 on the GFS. EC and GFS build a ridge along the west coast by day 10, which may signal a decrease in the southern storm track for a while and drier NW flow aloft. Could keep temps across Texas near normal on average, but there will be periods of above-normal temps and periods of below-normal temps over the next few weeks (which is normal). I'm not seeing any big snow threat for Texas through January. February could be different.

[dhweather]

Sure it's 348 hours out, but it looks brutal.

[Yukon Cornelius]

As with most of us, I really wish there was a more clear signal as to what degree of cold weather is possible and when. When your job depends 100% on the weather and to prepare for arctic cold takes numerous full days, it can get costly and time consuming pretty quick.

[orangeblood]

I had the last two GFS runs factor in my newly-built wall along the Canadian border. Last section of the wall is scheduled for completion on Sunday, which means no more strong front next Wednesday.

Euro has a disturbance moving across Texas next Wednesday, bringing in a little cooler air for mid-week but no new influx of cold air from Canada. Looking at the 500mb projected flow, both the EC & GFS indicate only a brief period of cross-Polar flow this weekend, then it goes away through day 10 in the EC and day 16 on the GFS. EC and GFS build a ridge along the west coast by day 10, which may signal a decrease in the southern storm track for a while and drier NW flow aloft. Could keep temps across Texas near normal on average, but there will be periods of above-normal temps and periods of below-normal temps over the next few weeks (which is normal). I'm not seeing any big snow threat for Texas through January. February could be different.

With all due respect, how is this not cross-polar flow being shown on the Euro Ens and GEFS ??? There appears to only be a few days that it shuts off (ironically is when the potential storm system for mid week next week comes ashore) but overall, the cross-polar flow is dominate . Day 10 is when the Ensembles are really cranking up the cross-polar flow and IMO, the real fun begins!!!