Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Ntxw yeah that gfs run was nuts , but the fact that all three ensembles have a major signal for much colder arctic air and more widespread over the central us definitely gets you’re attention for sure

[snownado]

FWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1228 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold weather will continue through the rest of the
workweek, with wind chill values in the teens Tuesday and
Wednesday morning.

- Confidence is high that most of North and Central Texas will see
wintry precipitation Wednesday night through Friday morning.
There is increasing confidence in a more impactful winter storm
during this timeframe, including snowfall accumulations >4".

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/

The short term forecast period continues to be very cold but free
of precipitation due to very dry air in place behind Sunday`s
arctic front. Wind chill values this morning were in the single
digits across most of North and Central Texas due to gusty north
winds, but these wind speeds are now beginning to decline as
surface high pressure settles across the Central and Southern
Plains. Strong cold advection will offset warming due to
insolation this afternoon with highs only reaching the mid and
upper 30s for most. It will still be quite cold overnight with
wind chill values in the teens, but our forecast area should
safely remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

Increasing cloud cover will spread in from the west overnight
into tomorrow, and this canopy of cloud cover will also limit
daytime warming with highs in the the 30s again. Some radar
echoes may make an appearance as mid-level saturation increases
in advance of our potent winter storm system later in the
workweek. However, with very dry air in the lowest 12,000 ft, it
will essentially be impossible for any precipitation to fall from
this cloud deck tomorrow as it would immediately sublimate within
the drier sub-cloud airmass.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 328 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025/
/Tuesday Night and Beyond/

Confidence continues to increase in a potentially impactful winter
storm across much of North and Central Texas during the second
half of the work week. By Tuesday night, an impressive upper-level
low will sink south toward Baja California setting the stage for
what could be quite the snow event across much of the region.
Climatologically, this upper-level pattern favors more long
duration, large areal coverage snow events across North and
Central Texas with a near continuous supply of 700mb-500mb Pacific
moisture streaming overhead from the southwest. This Pacific fetch
of moisture content keeps the dendritic growth zone saturated, a
layer in the atmosphere between -12C and -18C favorable for ice
crystal development and growth. A very dry layer of air beneath
700mb will prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground
until we tap into a southeast-northwest oriented plume of 850mb
Gulf moisture Wednesday evening.

So, we will have the moisture and we will have the lift. Now we
just need temperatures to be cold enough through entire
atmospheric column to produce snow. And here in Texas, we are used
to our winter weather events being a game of just a few degrees,
because as we know slightly colder or slightly warmer temperatures
can lead to drastically different final results. At this time,
ensemble and deterministic guidance favors temperatures profiles
supportive of snow across much of North Texas and a rain-snow mix
over Central Texas with a deepening surface low along the Texas
Coast keeping cold, northerly low-level flow over our forecast
area. This Baja California cut-off low synoptic setup is known for
having warmer temperatures aloft which could bring some warm-nose,
wintry mix action to locations south of I-20. Right now, this
layer (if to materialize) looks shallow and cool enough to support
primarily sleet rather than freezing rain. Still can`t rule a
light glazing in portions of our Central Texas and Brazos Valley
counties.

The devil is in the details, so let`s break it down:

Timing: Although some models try to start wintry precipitation in
our western North and Central counties early Wednesday afternoon,
the vast majority of guidance starts our event later Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night. Precipitation will overspread much
of our area from southwest to northeast during the day Thursday
exiting to the east Friday morning.

Amounts: Confidence is growing that a large portion of our
forecast area will see impactful snow accumulations. The most
likely amounts now range from 2-4" generally from the Red River
down toward a Goldthwaite-Hillsboro-Canton line. Higher totals are
certainly possible within this area with a 30-40% chance that
totals exceed 6" through Friday morning. Lower totals are expected
down in the Brazos Valley and the Killeen-Temple MSA with a
~30-40% chance that this area misses out on the snow event
entirely.

Type: It is still a bit too early to be confident in the
precipitation type and precisely where and when
rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain will occur. We are entering the
range of some medium-range guidance and will soon gain access to
high-resolution guidance that will help us make these distinctions
over the next 2-3 days.

Other than that, expect highs in the 30s Wednesday and Thursday
with a gradual warm-up into the 40s this weekend. Overnight lows
will dip into the 20s each night with lows in the 30s increasingly
possible by Friday morning. Stay warm, bundle up, and prepare for
an increasingly likely impactful winter weather event later this
week!

Langfeld

That long-range discussion is from this morning, FWIW...

[snownado]

EPS keeps ticking up. Notice again it's SW to NE strip of high totals along I-20/I-30.

https://i.imgur.com/mApgu3p.png

It did shift a bit NW like the GFES, but still overall it's most impressive run yet.

[orangeblood]

EPS keeps ticking up. Notice again it's SW to NE strip of high totals along I-20/I-30.

https://i.imgur.com/mApgu3p.png

Coincidentally, Bullseye is 9.6" at DFW Airport. It hasn't waivered much at all from the main axis for days now, remarkable consistency.

[WacoWx]

That long-range discussion is from this morning, FWIW...

mother father

[Ntxw]

That long-range discussion is from this morning, FWIW...

mother father

The torture you went though that night/day in 2010 watching it just to your north from Waco. Redemption?

[snownado]

That long-range discussion is from this morning, FWIW...

mother father

I'm look forward to the afternoon discussion.

If they're going to issue watches, they need to go out either this afternoon or tomorrow morning at the latest.

[gpsnowman]

EPS keeps ticking up. Notice again it's SW to NE strip of high totals along I-20/I-30.

https://i.imgur.com/mApgu3p.png

Coincidentally, Bullseye is 9.6" at DFW Airport. It hasn't waivered much at all from the main axis for days now, remarkable consistency.

The EPS runs have consistently shown very high totals in my neck of the woods. I'm in between I20 and I30.

[Gotwood]

I’m still waiting for the local weather stations to start upping potential totals most they are advertising is 4 inches max in the metroplex.

[Edwards Limestone]

Congrats to our DFW guys to have something to root for. Hopefully it comes through in the end.

I'll be enjoying some miserable cold rain down here, but any moisture is welcomed these days.

[gpsnowman]

POW Ponder confirms Cantore and Reed Timmer will be here for the storm. It's on now!!

[WacoWx]

That long-range discussion is from this morning, FWIW...

mother father

The torture you went though that night/day in 2010 watching it just to your north from Waco. Redemption?

While I'm trying to remain confident, I'm a bad luck charm weather-wise. Wherever I go, the good stuff will go north, south, or east of me. It's some sort of jinx I have to deal with re: significant weather events.

Trying to remain cautiously optimistic.

[WacoWx]

Weather.com now has 5-8" on Thursday and 3-5" Thursday night in Dallas. Ramping up!

[South Texas Storms]

I'm with Ntx, wouldnt be tooo concerned about surface temps. If the upper levels are cold, with no warm nose, then as the precip falls, temps will fall to below freezing. I would be more concerned about the upper level temps, which have been much more consistent then the surface forecasts.

Something to note on timing. I would anticipate the precip shield to fire up quicker than they expect, and further NE of the low than models show. The storm crossing the country right now is actually a good example of that.

Sorry for my SE TX folks. Cold miserable rain.

No need to apologize, I'll happily take the cold rain! No travel or power outage issues expected with that. Plus, areas that haven't seen much rain in months are expected to get a good soaking later this week. Very beneficial for the long term drought across south and west Texas!

[Stratton23]

TeamPlayersBlue yeah cold rain is the worst, id rather be 100 degrees and dry than have upper 30’s and cold rain lol, but we are used to it

[txtwister78]

Latest HRRR extended while dry shows a distinct difference between global models and short range guidance in terms of these temp profiles upstairs. Again if precip begins a little sooner on Wednesday you're talking about a whole different ballgame for many more folks. Not there yet but even if this were to start a few hours later, I can see more frozen precip further south. Just something to monitor for now.

[Cpv17]

This is setting up to really suck here north of Houston

We’ll have to wait till later in the month. Let NTX and OK have their fun this time. Hopefully we’ll get ours later.

[Quicksilver17]

I'm with Ntx, wouldnt be tooo concerned about surface temps. If the upper levels are cold, with no warm nose, then as the precip falls, temps will fall to below freezing. I would be more concerned about the upper level temps, which have been much more consistent then the surface forecasts.

Something to note on timing. I would anticipate the precip shield to fire up quicker than they expect, and further NE of the low than models show. The storm crossing the country right now is actually a good example of that.

Sorry for my SE TX folks. Cold miserable rain.

No need to apologize, I'll happily take the cold rain! No travel or power outage issues expected with that. Plus, areas that haven't seen much rain in months are expected to get a good soaking later this week. Very beneficial for the long term drought across south and west Texas!

STS,

Any thoughts on the next system coming in in regard to our chances for the Houston/Tomball area?

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro ENS snow probability maps have been updated...70% plus chance now of 6" plus across DFW and surrounding areas. Even the 12" plus category is showing up for the first time, something I've never seen on this model (Texas related) for those outside of West Texas!

[South Texas Storms]

I'm with Ntx, wouldnt be tooo concerned about surface temps. If the upper levels are cold, with no warm nose, then as the precip falls, temps will fall to below freezing. I would be more concerned about the upper level temps, which have been much more consistent then the surface forecasts.

Something to note on timing. I would anticipate the precip shield to fire up quicker than they expect, and further NE of the low than models show. The storm crossing the country right now is actually a good example of that.

Sorry for my SE TX folks. Cold miserable rain.

No need to apologize, I'll happily take the cold rain! No travel or power outage issues expected with that. Plus, areas that haven't seen much rain in months are expected to get a good soaking later this week. Very beneficial for the long term drought across south and west Texas!

STS,

Any thoughts on the next system coming in in regard to our chances for the Houston/Tomball area?

I'm pretty confident we'll see a cold moderate to heavy rain Thursday into Friday. Any ice and snow accumulations will likely remain north of the metro area. I suppose Tomball could briefly see some sleet/freezing rain at the onset but it should quickly become all rain.