Texas Winter 2018-2019

[wxman57]

With all due respect, how is this not cross-polar flow being shown on the Euro Ens and GEFS ??? Day 10 is when the Ensembles are really cranking up the cross-polar flow and IMO, the real fun begins!!!

http://i66.tinypic.com/72870x.jpg

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019011506/gfs-ens_z500aNorm_nhem_55.png

I don't see any cross-Polar flow on either of those two charts. Flow is from NW Canada area, not across the Pole.

[orangeblood]

With all due respect, how is this not cross-polar flow being shown on the Euro Ens and GEFS ??? Day 10 is when the Ensembles are really cranking up the cross-polar flow and IMO, the real fun begins!!!

http://i66.tinypic.com/72870x.jpg

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019011506/gfs-ens_z500aNorm_nhem_55.png

I don't see any cross-Polar flow on either of those two charts. Flow is from NW Canada area, not across the Pole.

Interesting....if you don't mind, what in your opinion is the meteorological definition of "Cross-Polar" flow ? It appears to me there is a portion of the Polar Jet flow coming from NW Siberia up and over the pole (Polar Circle) directly into Northern Canada/continually feeding the PV. I've always understood it to be a fairly wide-ranging definition!!

[orangeblood]

Really like what we're seeing from the overnight teleconnection indices....around the 22nd, AO and EPO both forecast to tank, typically bodes very well for the eastern 3/4th of the Lower 48. The more neutral the PNA the better as well!

[utweather]

When I lived up in the DFW area, I prayed for the most severe arctic blasts we could get. Coming from Florida and SE Georgia, this was a novelty to me, although I remember the Tampa snow of 1977, the cold snap of 1983, and later in Savannah, GA, we hit 3 degrees in 1985.

I moved to Plano in 1988 and was greeted my first couple of years up there with some impressive cold snaps, ice and snow. During one of the cold snaps the schools were closed - not from snow or ice, but from the gas curtailment to commercial buildings because it was so cold.

It's when I first learned the term "sublimation" from Harold Taft, the legendary forecaster on KXAS.

Anyway, now that I live down in SE Texas, I don't like the cold weather so much. Gardners down here inevitably plant tropical plants because they are sold at the local garden centers, and they tend to thrive in years when we don't have a hard freeze, especially in protected microclimates. So, with some work, your back yard can look lot like a yard in Florida (where I'm originally from). So for us gardening enthusiasts, the last thing we want to see is a blocking pattern with a cold dump down the plains.

But I have to admit - I remember those days up in Plano, seeing it snowing outside, and having that adrenaline rush while watching Harold on Channel 5 proclaim "There isn't anything between us and that Siberian Air but a barbed wire fence...."

As for this weekend - it looks like I'm gonna spend my Friday evening/Saturday morning covering plants, wrapping pipes, faucets, etc.

Get ready.

PS: Tim Heller did his last Weathercast last Friday night. I remember seeing him up in Dallas and then he moved down here too.

Yes, I miss Harold Taft. I don't think he used any stinkin models. His maps looked hand drawn.

[utweather]

All I want in life is just a little bit of snow...is that too hard to ask weather gods?

I'm pretty sure you can probably get some snow machines on amazon.com

[Ralph's Weather]

With all due respect, how is this not cross-polar flow being shown on the Euro Ens and GEFS ??? Day 10 is when the Ensembles are really cranking up the cross-polar flow and IMO, the real fun begins!!!

http://i66.tinypic.com/72870x.jpg

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019011506/gfs-ens_z500aNorm_nhem_55.png

I don't see any cross-Polar flow on either of those two charts. Flow is from NW Canada area, not across the Pole.

Interesting....if you don't mind, what in your opinion is the meteorological definition of "Cross-Polar" flow ? It appears to me there is a portion of the Polar Jet flow coming from NW Siberia up and over the pole (Polar Circle) directly into Northern Canada/continually feeding the PV. I've always understood it to be a fairly wide-ranging definition!!

Yea, I agree that this set up is text book cross polar flow in my book. If someone has a differing opinion I'd love to hear it. Those charts are beautiful and offer plenty of hope for Texas winter weather. Down here I will take my chances with a -EPO and some Atlantic blocking along with sub tropical flow underneath the NE Pacific ridge 100 times out of 100. That is a recipe for fluffy light snow with occasional bigger systems coming out of the west. The op GFS trends too +PNA in the long range so discount that and back its flow 500 miles for a good guess at reality. This is a great pattern we are entering.

[Ralph's Weather]

As with most of us, I really wish there was a more clear signal as to what degree of cold weather is possible and when. When your job depends 100% on the weather and to prepare for arctic cold takes numerous full days, it can get costly and time consuming pretty quick.

I'd plan on numerous sub freezing days with many nights sub 15 in your area. My family is involved heavily in agriculture (cattle and trees) and I am telling them to prep for major cold.

[Lagreeneyes03]

I don't see any cross-Polar flow on either of those two charts. Flow is from NW Canada area, not across the Pole.

Interesting....if you don't mind, what in your opinion is the meteorological definition of "Cross-Polar" flow ? It appears to me there is a portion of the Polar Jet flow coming from NW Siberia up and over the pole (Polar Circle) directly into Northern Canada/continually feeding the PV. I've always understood it to be a fairly wide-ranging definition!!

Yea, I agree that this set up is text book cross polar flow in my book. If someone has a differing opinion I'd love to hear it. Those charts are beautiful and offer plenty of hope for Texas winter weather. Down here I will take my chances with a -EPO and some Atlantic blocking along with sub tropical flow underneath the NE Pacific ridge 100 times out of 100. That is a recipe for fluffy light snow with occasional bigger systems coming out of the west. The op GFS trends too +PNA in the long range so discount that and back its flow 500 miles for a good guess at reality. This is a great pattern we are entering.

But is this the pattern that we keep saying will materialize 10-14 days out and doesn't come? From WxMan57 comments it seems as such, yet again.

[CaptinCrunch]

Harold Taft was a true weatherman, using satellite images hours old, no radar, no computer models, just straight up maps and hand crunched data he layed out a 5 day forecast that was pretty accurate.

Heard him say many of times "this is what I think is going to happen" and he was usually right

After Harold, Troy Duncan was my favorite.

[Ralph's Weather]

Interesting....if you don't mind, what in your opinion is the meteorological definition of "Cross-Polar" flow ? It appears to me there is a portion of the Polar Jet flow coming from NW Siberia up and over the pole (Polar Circle) directly into Northern Canada/continually feeding the PV. I've always understood it to be a fairly wide-ranging definition!!

Yea, I agree that this set up is text book cross polar flow in my book. If someone has a differing opinion I'd love to hear it. Those charts are beautiful and offer plenty of hope for Texas winter weather. Down here I will take my chances with a -EPO and some Atlantic blocking along with sub tropical flow underneath the NE Pacific ridge 100 times out of 100. That is a recipe for fluffy light snow with occasional bigger systems coming out of the west. The op GFS trends too +PNA in the long range so discount that and back its flow 500 miles for a good guess at reality. This is a great pattern we are entering.

But is this the pattern that we keep saying will materialize 10-14 days out and doesn't come? From WxMan57 comments it seems as such, yet again.

No this starts next week and goes for a good while. The SSW event has kicked of NW Atlantic blocking that will lock this pattern in place and the warm Gulf of Alaska is finally resulting in a solid -EPO to eject the surface cold out of the Polar regions. My only guess is he is referring to the recent op GFS, but I will let him chime in on that. Long range op GFS is for entertainment purposes only in my eyes. Honestly all of the globals have struggled mightily so beyond or so days I go to the ensembles depiction of the upper levels and beyond 6 or so days I am shifting towards teleconnections with ensembles sprinkled in.

[Yukon Cornelius]

As with most of us, I really wish there was a more clear signal as to what degree of cold weather is possible and when. When your job depends 100% on the weather and to prepare for arctic cold takes numerous full days, it can get costly and time consuming pretty quick.

I'd plan on numerous sub freezing days with many nights sub 15 in your area. My family is involved heavily in agriculture (cattle and trees) and I am telling them to prep for major cold.

That’s exactly what I was thinking. Preparations are beginning this morning. I’d rather be out a little money and time and be prepared rather than caught off guard and be out a lot of money and time.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im going to be leaving the week of Jan 26th - Feb 3rd or so, i need to know so i can set someone up to come run my pool while im gone. Dont want to come home to a big mess.

[Ralph's Weather]

Harold Taft was a true weatherman, using satellite images hours old, no radar, no computer models, just straight up maps and hand crunched data he layed out a 5 day forecast that was pretty accurate.

Heard him say many of times "this is what I think is going to happen" and he was usually right

After Harold, Troy Duncan was my favorite.

This is an almost extinct skill, but one that I still feel should be one that all meteorologists need to harken back to. Models are a tool, but the human touch is needed to make sure the output is logical. Otherwise we are like an NBA GM saying Ayton is better than Doncic because his PER stats are higher.

[dhweather]

Friendly reminder: Models in the 7+ day range are a guess at best. They may show a trend, or not.

For certain, we will have an arctic blast this weekend, with lows dropping into the low 20's in DFW. We might spend 48-60 hours below freezing.

Beyond that, well, we will see.

[Haris]

Gfs trended a few degrees warmer with the first front this weekend.

[Cerlin]

Gfs trended a few degrees warmer with the first front this weekend.

GFS always does this—warms up about 5 days out. I’m not worried.

[Portastorm]

Friendly reminder: Models in the 7+ day range are a guess at best. They may show a trend, or not.

For certain, we will have an arctic blast this weekend, with lows dropping into the low 20's in DFW. We might spend 48-60 hours below freezing.

Beyond that, well, we will see.

Thank you! I don't know how many times we need to say this. Apparently a lot.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Day 5-7 there is often a pullback, or it ramps up the storm/cold. Right now, dont get crazy over specifics. Like stated before, just watch the pattern. Watch the upper air flow, see what the surface temps look like in Canada. The specifics on the surface where we are will change much to often right now.

[Texas Snow]

Yea, I agree that this set up is text book cross polar flow in my book. If someone has a differing opinion I'd love to hear it. Those charts are beautiful and offer plenty of hope for Texas winter weather. Down here I will take my chances with a -EPO and some Atlantic blocking along with sub tropical flow underneath the NE Pacific ridge 100 times out of 100. That is a recipe for fluffy light snow with occasional bigger systems coming out of the west. The op GFS trends too +PNA in the long range so discount that and back its flow 500 miles for a good guess at reality. This is a great pattern we are entering.

But is this the pattern that we keep saying will materialize 10-14 days out and doesn't come? From WxMan57 comments it seems as such, yet again.

No this starts next week and goes for a good while. The SSW event has kicked of NW Atlantic blocking that will lock this pattern in place and the warm Gulf of Alaska is finally resulting in a solid -EPO to eject the surface cold out of the Polar regions. My only guess is he is referring to the recent op GFS, but I will let him chime in on that. Long range op GFS is for entertainment purposes only in my eyes. Honestly all of the globals have struggled mightily so beyond or so days I go to the ensembles depiction of the upper levels and beyond 6 or so days I am shifting towards teleconnections with ensembles sprinkled in.

I think what Greeneyes is saying is that there are all these projections that the cold is just going to keep reloading with multiple chances for storms from next week through most of February. Then WxMan57 chimes in with the following quote below, basically stating, yeah that's not going to happen (at least through the end of January). Unfortunately he is usually right but I love it when he is wrong

Euro has a disturbance moving across Texas next Wednesday, bringing in a little cooler air for mid-week but no new influx of cold air from Canada. Looking at the 500mb projected flow, both the EC & GFS indicate only a brief period of cross-Polar flow this weekend, then it goes away through day 10 in the EC and day 16 on the GFS. EC and GFS build a ridge along the west coast by day 10, which may signal a decrease in the southern storm track for a while and drier NW flow aloft. Could keep temps across Texas near normal on average, but there will be periods of above-normal temps and periods of below-normal temps over the next few weeks (which is normal). I'm not seeing any big snow threat for Texas through January. February could be different

[Ralph's Weather]

Just looked at the long range GFS and it is comical. All ensembles GFS, Euro and Canadian show -EPO, -AO and -NAO. In the face of that the GFS says nah I want to plow my trough east haha, not a chance in the world that happens. This weekend's trough will be fairly quick hitting as the Atlantic blocking is not yet fully locked in. After that moves out the Atlantic blocking sets up which will lock in the coldest air on the planet over Canada for weeks with the NE Pacific ridge set up just off of the West coast allowing the cold to envelop the continent east of the Rockies. A pattern locked in like this will not break down until a big storm knocks it out and I do not see that coming within the next two weeks as a -PNA will have to develop to allow a storm to strengthen enough to reset the N Hem pattern at least partially. AFter that I will be interested if the cold can rebuild enough for another big storm to end the winter.