Texas Winter 2014-2015

[gboudx]

I'm going to say were are definitely going to get a winter storm/blizzard late next week, only Because I'm supposed to travel to San Antonio on Saturday for the PAX South event.

P.S I'm hoping jinxing myself, but now I might be jinxing my jinx Oh well I guess it's a win win, Either I get a snow storm, or I get to go to PAX South and meet my friends from far away.

If it's not you guaranteeing it, then it's me. We've had a trip to Broken Bow, Ok changed 3 times for one reason or another. We're gonna have snow on top of sleet on top of ice. The trifecta.

- not a forecast

[dhweather]

December starts tomorrow.

I don't think we see another freeze in the Metroplex for 10-14 days. Not saying winter is over, we will most certainly get another opportunity for freezing weather and wintry precip in February, a favorable month for us. But for the second half of January, I don't see much happening cold wise, still hopeful significant rains late next week. Warm up, get PWATS up > 2" and bring on the dynamics. PLEASE.

And Mexico, you can keep your flipping capping inversion.

[orangeblood]

December starts tomorrow.

I don't think we see another freeze in the Metroplex for 10-14 days. Not saying winter is over, we will most certainly get another opportunity for freezing weather and wintry precip in February, a favorable month for us. But for the second half of January, I don't see much happening cold wise, still hopeful significant rains late next week. Warm up, get PWATS up > 2" and bring on the dynamics. PLEASE.

And Mexico, you can keep your flipping capping inversion.

Some of the coldest air of the season so far is showing up in the extended (8-14 day period) so care to explain your reasoning ?

[Brent]

Entire GFS run is cold after Wed/Thu... this warmup is gonna last a week at best.

[wxman57]

Some of the coldest air of the season so far is showing up in the extended (8-14 day period) so care to explain your reasoning ?

Where are you seeing this coldest air of the season? I don't see it coming down the Plains into Texas. The 00Z Euro doesn't even show any below-zero temps into the Central or Southern Plains through 240hrs. The GFS doesn't show any through 384hrs. The GFS does show some very cold temps in eastern Canada near the end of its 06Z run, but that cold air isn't moving south toward Texas.

[Portastorm]

I'm not sure I'd trust either the Euro or GFS beyond the next 3-4 days. Both, for example, show larger changes from run-to-run for weather around 1/24-1/25.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure I'd trust either the Euro or GFS beyond the next 3-4 days. Both, for example, show larger changes from run-to-run for weather around 1/24-1/25.

I'm looking forward to THIS cold air in 2 weeks (below). You game for a bet? No freeze in Austin (AUS airport) through Thursday the 28th (2 weeks). If you win then I'll switch my avatar to the "Snow Miser" for 2 weeks. If I win, you go back to your current avatar for 2 weeks. I think that tonight may be your best shot at a freeze for 2 weeks.

[orangeblood]

Some of the coldest air of the season so far is showing up in the extended (8-14 day period) so care to explain your reasoning ?

Where are you seeing this coldest air of the season? I don't see it coming down the Plains into Texas. The 00Z Euro doesn't even show any below-zero temps into the Central or Southern Plains through 240hrs. The GFS doesn't show any through 384hrs. The GFS does show some very cold temps in eastern Canada near the end of its 06Z run, but that cold air isn't moving south toward Texas.

1) I rarely look at operational runs in the extended 8-14 day period 2) The teleconnection indices are coming together for a Major Arctic Outbreak into the US... AO is crashing into territory we haven't seen since the November Outbreak but this time during a much colder time of year, its joining the EPO,WPO, and NAO into negative territory as well. All of these indices coming together for the 1st time this winter season, particularly during the coldest month of the year, sets the stage for copious amounts of Arctic Air to overwhelm the pattern. 3) After analyzing these indices, I've found that the Euro/GFS ENS means in the extended range are the best tools for forecasting the extremity of these outbreaks - sure enough they paint an extremely cold pattern towards the end of the month. GFS ENS Mean below, can't post the Euro ENS mean during same period but it's even colder!!! Keep in mind this is a MEAN of some 15-20 F below normal in the extended, some of the individual runs are off the chart! Now, yes the core of the cold is in the northern plains but this type of cold almost always finds its way into the southern plains...we've seen this time and time again over the years.

[orangeblood]

I'm not sure I'd trust either the Euro or GFS beyond the next 3-4 days. Both, for example, show larger changes from run-to-run for weather around 1/24-1/25.

I'm looking forward to THIS cold air in 2 weeks (below). You game for a bet? No freeze in Austin (AUS airport) through Thursday the 28th (2 weeks). If you win then I'll switch my avatar to the "Snow Miser" for 2 weeks. If I win, you go back to your current avatar for 2 weeks. I think that tonight may be your best shot at a freeze for 2 weeks.

Jump on it Porta...Euro ENS mean of 34 F in Austin on the morning of the 24th with some members showing mid 20's

[Ntxw]

I agree take it Porta! -EPO crashing into the -2/-3 range low level cold will beat it by the 25th! Take it!

[hriverajr]

Can I jump in on this bet? No freeze in the heart of winter in Austin? Highly unlikely.

[hriverajr]

Of course this bet is basically a one week bet...

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, LCRA came out with their latest drought update summarizing 2014. With all of the rain we have had, the hill country and tributaries have responded very little. Too much time between storms, drying out the ground, which I have mentioned numerous times. Our drought has lasted since 2008. (2007 was the last time both Lakes Buchanan and Travis were both full.) 2011 was the tipping point.

Frustrating how the weather pattern just won't cooperate. I would think a PDO the highest since the late 90s and a warm ENSO would help us out. I guess it has, but not in the right areas -- yet.


Unlike the Austin area, which had above-average rainfall last year, the Highland Lakes watershed in the Texas Hill Country had below-normal rainfall in 2014 and remains in a serious drought. The intermittent timing of storms in the Hill Country allowed the soil to dry out between rain events, which resulted in little runoff into the lakes. For water to flow into the lakes, the rain must fall on saturated ground, or the rain must be hard enough to generate substantial runoff. Very little of either occurred in 2014.

"It's not that the area around the lakes hasn't gotten rain,'' said John Hofmann, LCRA executive vice president of Water. "It's that we haven't had enough rain in the right spot - or in the right way - to make a significant difference in lake levels. Ideally, we need rain to saturate the soil, followed immediately by another series of storms."

Inflows into the Highland Lakes have been well-below average every year since 2008, when the current drought began.

http://www.lcra.org/water/water-supply/ ... fault.aspx

[gpsnowman]

Porta, do it. I'm not familiar with the mets in Austin, but here in DFW I have watched or read four mets calling for a cold end to the month. Rather early to call for something like that so I am confident a pattern change is evolving. Not to mention the numerous great posts on the forum hinting of a pattern change as well. Could be real fun later this month. Fingers crossed.

[wxman57]

Can I jump in on this bet? No freeze in the heart of winter in Austin? Highly unlikely.

Sure! You'll have to come up with a heat-loving avatar, though.

[orangeblood]

I agree take it Porta! -EPO crashing into the -2/-3 range low level cold will beat it by the 25th! Take it!

Euro Operational takes both the AO and EPO past the -4 range by the 24th....haven't seen that combo since 09-10' winter

[hriverajr]

Can I jump in on this bet? No freeze in the heart of winter in Austin? Highly unlikely.

Sure! You'll have to come up with a heat-loving avatar, though.

Ok I am in!

[weatherdude1108]

I agree take it Porta! -EPO crashing into the -2/-3 range low level cold will beat it by the 25th! Take it!

Euro Operational takes both the AO and EPO past the -4 range by the 24th....haven't seen that combo since 09-10' winter

Take it Porta! Take it!

[Ntxw]

Are y'all using Bergstrom Airport as the official station? Mabry is usually a little colder just sayin

[wxman57]

Can I jump in on this bet? No freeze in the heart of winter in Austin? Highly unlikely.

Sure! You'll have to come up with a heat-loving avatar, though.

Ok I am in!

You know, I can only lose once. Let's get everyone to jump in and you can all switch to heat-loving avatars in 2 weeks!

Need something to liven things up around here...