Texas Winter 2020-2021

[wxman22]

Yeah but if that SE ridge gets too close...

It makes less of a difference the further inland in the plains you are with a deep surface pool of cold around. This is why Feb 2011 was hardly an event along the gulf coast. It's increasing the odds of an icing event for the southern plains. That temperature gradient will focus a highway for precip.

That makes sense as to why I don’t recall anything memorable down here in southeast Texas from Feb 2011.

That's not true,there was an event along the Gulf coast in February of 2011 temps were in the low 20s across metro Houston, and an icing event transpired with hundreds of accidents in metro Houston, and Corpus received one of its biggest ice storms on record.

https://www.weather.gov/crp/feb2011_icestorm

https://www.chron.com/news/slideshow/Ho ... -16541.php

[MississippiWx]

Remember earlier in the week when the models had shown some historic ice/snow events in the southeastern US down to the coast? Well now they are showing much above normal over that way. When in doubt use the analog package as a tool. So when thinking about the panic button, just consider our friends to the east are having a much tougher luck about it than we are.

Yep. All we ever get is a Southeast ridge when these potential events happen. Never fails these days. We will more than likely be watching in envy again.

[Haris]

I shouldn’t but I’ll feel quite sad if euro doesn’t improve. This is our last shot for the winter of any meaningful action. Let’s see what happens

[Iceresistance]

I shouldn’t but I’ll feel quite sad if euro doesn’t improve. This is our last shot for the winter of any meaningful action. Let’s see what happens

But what if the Euro suddenly gets colder & breaks the Control of Wxman57 in the next 2-3 runs?

[Cpv17]

It makes less of a difference the further inland in the plains you are with a deep surface pool of cold around. This is why Feb 2011 was hardly an event along the gulf coast. It's increasing the odds of an icing event for the southern plains. That temperature gradient will focus a highway for precip.

That makes sense as to why I don’t recall anything memorable down here in southeast Texas from Feb 2011.

That's not true,there was an event along the Gulf coast in February of 2011 temps were in the teens across metro Houston, and an icing event transpired with hundreds of accidents in metro Houston, and Corpus received one of its biggest ice storms on record.

https://www.weather.gov/crp/feb2011_icestorm

https://www.chron.com/news/slideshow/Ho ... -16541.php

Gotcha. It’s weird I don’t remember it.

[bubba hotep]

Not seeing many major changes on the Euro through 72hrs, ridge in the SW is a bit stronger in response to a s/w coming in off the Pacific being a bit deeper. That s/w might be the trigger for any winter wx later in the week.

ETA: At 96hr, Euro is starting to diverge from other guidance with higher heights across the SE. However, heights across the SE are lower than 00z and the TPV seems to be consolidating farther east vs. 00z. So maybe some positive shifts from 00z?

[Stormcenter]

Just remember most major winter events in the south are
never predicted by the models until right before they
occur or in some cases never.

[Brent]

Euro is in the 60s Thursday morning

Even OKC is barely at freezing

[bubba hotep]

Euro is in the 60s Thursday morning

Yep, stout SE ridge in place, maybe some svr wx as the s/w is digging a bit more lol

[Haris]

I shouldn’t but I’ll feel quite sad if euro doesn’t improve. This is our last shot for the winter of any meaningful action. Let’s see what happens

[Iceresistance]

Not seeing many major changes on the Euro through 72hrs, ridge in the SW is a bit stronger in response to a s/w coming in off the Pacific being a bit deeper. That s/w might be the trigger for any winter wx later in the week.

ETA: At 96hr, Euro is starting to diverge from other guidance with higher heights across the SE. However, heights across the SE are lower than 00z and the TPV seems to be consolidating farther east vs. 00z. So maybe some positive shifts from 00z?

The SE Ridge at 120hr is stronger, forcing the PV westward

[Iceresistance]

Just remember most major winter events in the south are
never predicted by the models until right before they
occur or in some cases never.

Does that mean that a nasty Surprise might happen to the Southern Plains? (And to Heat Miser (Wxman57))?

[Brent]

Dallas finally approaches freezing Friday morning on the Euro

[Ntxw]

Not seeing many major changes on the Euro through 72hrs, ridge in the SW is a bit stronger in response to a s/w coming in off the Pacific being a bit deeper. That s/w might be the trigger for any winter wx later in the week.

ETA: At 96hr, Euro is starting to diverge from other guidance with higher heights across the SE. However, heights across the SE are lower than 00z and the TPV seems to be consolidating farther east vs. 00z. So maybe some positive shifts from 00z?

It's not quite as good a we want but a little improvement over the 0z.

[wxman22]

Its early but so far the Euro looks better than the 0z run as it now breaks down the 500mb ridge over Texas.

[Ntxw]

Its early but so far the Euro looks better than the 0z run as it now breaks down the 500mb ridge over Texas.

0z Euro surface high never makes it but the 12z does and opens the gates, delayed. But to emphasize subtle changes can mean different things.

[cheezyWXguy]

Doesn’t the euro have some kind of a se ridge bias? I remember discussing something along these lines during hurricane season

[Ntxw]

But just think about this and consider consistency and sensitivity. 0z Euro had DFW near 70 next Saturday while 12z is only 20-30F change in the 30s. That's not very reliable.

[South Texas Storms]

I said it a few days ago and I'll say it again: We're likely going to get quite cold later this week and into next weekend. I still think it's not a matter of if, but when. The model consensus is just too strong, even if it doesn't include our beloved Euro. Plus the inconsistency of the Euro has to give you pause in believing it's warmer solution.

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS Ensembles on COD Meteorology has stopped at +288 hours for some reason, I'll post the Ensemble snow totals at that hour for now until it updates later on.



My Personal Favorites are Members 1, 2, 6, 8, 10, 12 (Biggest Favorite ), 17 & 20. (50% have all 12z GEFS Ensembles have snow over Oklahoma at some point)

(Question: How is the CMCE doing?)