Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

Surface temps on the NAM. One thing missing is true arctic air or this would be a huge problem for the grid with the amount of moisture in place. Thankfully that's not in play here. In terms of freezing rain, this would mainly be a bridges and overpasses type problem and not surface roads as those should stay plenty warm with surface temps dipping to 31 or 30 where freezing rain is depicted.

[snownado]

You're in a great spot, the sweet spot of high QPF and freezing temps, and the NAM is now aligning with the Euro.

I'm in far SW Collin County, so cutting it close with these subtle NW shifts and the marginal temps.

Need to live on the edge if you want the big payout with this system

True, lol.

But I've never won that type of gamble with snowstorms, haha!

[Fifty Rock]

18z NAM has made it clear we're getting no breathing room (it headed in the wrong direction).

You're in a great spot, the sweet spot of high QPF and freezing temps, and the NAM is now aligning with the Euro.

I think Denton County might be able to cash in pretty good too.

I just seen a report that said Denton County will be in a doughnut hole and any snow will pass East and West of the county.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think these temps are a tad too warm on the GFS. I like us looking at the HRRR and the GFS. Large difference. Biased, of course, but leaning towards the HRRR. Snow cover is solid across the plains, will improve on Tuesday with snowfall coming through this area, and the ULL is quite strong, its going to pull down quite a bit of cooler air. Combine that with a heavy amount of precip falling out of a "cold air" from above, and voila.


My favorite busted forecast occurred here last year. Predicted alot of cold rain and maybe some snow out west of denver, well, i ended up with a foot of snow. Simply because the precip was heavy enough to pull down colder air to the surface. Models have an issue with this. Especially if much of the precip is snow. Rained for maybe 30 minutes, snowed for another 9 hours.

[snownado]

Shockingly, FWD has removed any mention of rain from the grids for most of DFW.

Also, updated graphic:

[Cpv17]

STS,

Any thoughts on the next system coming in in regard to our chances for the Houston/Tomball area?

I'm pretty confident we'll see a cold moderate to heavy rain Thursday into Friday. Any ice and snow accumulations will likely remain north of the metro area. I suppose Tomball could briefly see some sleet/freezing rain at the onset but it should quickly become all rain.

STS,

Tks for the insight. Fingers crossed that we get something this far south before end of Winter.

We might get our turn down here later this month. It’s looking interesting.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Surface temps on the NAM. One thing missing is true arctic air or this would be a huge problem for the grid with the amount of moisture in place. Thankfully that's not in play here. In terms of freezing rain, this would mainly be a bridges and overpasses type problem and not surface roads as those should stay plenty warm with surface temps dipping to 31 or 30 where freezing rain is depicted.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/t2m_f/1736186400/1736456400-UTHCvnMq9Iw.png

Can we see this map but a wet bulb version of this map? Youre right about true arctic air. Not much left around for the system, but i think the grid would be fine. Nowhere near enough cold air to give the grid fits.

[Ralph's Weather]

In Lindale per the 18Z NAM I am in line for >1.5" QPF and the max temp of the column never going above 2C and that being up0 around 800mb. 925mb never goes above -1C. Outcomes on the table here range from 0.5"+ ice to 3"+ of sleet to 6"+ of snow. So likely looking at a 2-5" variety pack of frozen precip. Sure hope my intuition is right and that Rockies high suppresses this a touch putting I-20 in E TX into snow zone.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I mean, I understand many of yalls worries about temps, but we talked about this weeks ago. A low coming down into the Big Bend region is perfect for a Tx snowstorm. I really think things will be fine for most.

[bubba hotep]

I'd take the 18z NAM every day of the week and Sunday

[orangeblood]

Several DFW record breakers now showing up on some of the individual ENS members

[txtwister78]

Afternoon discussion from Austin/San Antonio forecast office mentioning the complexities regarding precip types and the potential that models (globals) perhaps are overdoing warm air as some of the short range guidance suggest and therefore frozen precipitation becoming more likely further south.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

Key Messages...

- High confidence in below normal temperatures persisting Wednesday
through Monday.

- There is moderate to high confidence on precipitation from
Wednesday evening through early Friday.

- Confidence increasing for frozen precipitation over the Hill
Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and northern I-35 Corridor.

An upper level low will drop down into northwestern Mexico and then
open up into a trough as it lifts northeastward over Texas. Beneath
this feature an area of low pressure will form over the western Gulf
near the Texas coast brining moister air back to our region. This
will also bring some warmer air at least to our Coastal Plains
counties. The lift will essentially be isentropic. POPs will increase
Wednesday night and peak during the day Thursday. Closer to the coast
precipitation will be all rain. Farther inland the lowest layer of
the atmosphere will remain below freezing Wednesday night. The
question will be how much warm air moves in above the boundary layer.
Models are moving toward a deeper melting layer reaching I-35 and the
Hill Country with possibly a little less warm air out west. This would
push the weather type forecast to sleet/freezing rain northern I-35
and Hill Country and maybe snow/sleet farther west. The track of the
coastal low will make a big difference on the weather type.
Regardless of the details we have medium confidence that there will
be some impacts for the northern I-35 Corridor, Hill Country, and
Edwards Plateau. The most likely timing will be Wednesday night
through the day Thursday. Thursday night precipitation will be moving
off to the east with chances mainly over the eastern counties where
it will be mostly rain. By Friday afternoon dry weather will return,
but the cold temperatures will continue. Saturday morning will bring
a hard freeze across nearly all of the CWA. Saturday afternoon will
begin a warming trend, but temperatures will remain below normal
through the end of the period.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models seem locked in on I-30 and that is likely what will happen but that is awfully far north for a Gulf low to spit out its best snow totals. Maybe just -removed- this though haha. I need a Hwy 31 special.

[Stratton23]

Noaas 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks keep texas below normal beyond even the 20th, i have hunch we are going to have even more fun events to track beyond this system

[UTSARoadrunner4]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/instant_ptype/1736186400/1736456400-G3nRmjHpzRU.png

(Sigh) San Antonio is just a little too far south…again…

Well, I don't particularly want to get into freezing rain so that's just fine for me. These temp profiles however are literally one to two degrees all along the I-35 corrdior from more sleet to all snow further north and so NAM still a little warmer than the HRRR at the 48 hour range. Doesn't mean it isn't accurate but boy it's razor close in determining some of these precip types. Also temps on the 18z drop to 33 degrees at 3pm all around Bexar county compared to 35-36 on the 12z run so it's borderline even here.

I’m more of speaking on the snow side of things. Rather it just be blatantly cold than deal with freezing rain.

[txtwister78]

Several DFW record breakers now showing up on some of the individual ENS members

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1736164800/1736164800-1ITup8cOBEk.png

If the local NWS office up there is off by that much in snowfall accumulation totals they have forecast now, I'll be shocked. I think the Euro is a bit overdone personally due to sleet getting sampled into those totals but hey if it hits that will be something considering the Euro's track record on winter weather events.

[Gotwood]

Several DFW record breakers now showing up on some of the individual ENS members

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1736164800/1736164800-1ITup8cOBEk.png

I’m greedy sign me up for that 17 inches haha

[txtwister78]

(Sigh) San Antonio is just a little too far south…again…

Well, I don't particularly want to get into freezing rain so that's just fine for me. These temp profiles however are literally one to two degrees all along the I-35 corrdior from more sleet to all snow further north and so NAM still a little warmer than the HRRR at the 48 hour range. Doesn't mean it isn't accurate but boy it's razor close in determining some of these precip types. Also temps on the 18z drop to 33 degrees at 3pm all around Bexar county compared to 35-36 on the 12z run so it's borderline even here.

I’m more of speaking on the snow side of things. Rather it just be blatantly cold than deal with freezing rain.

Yeah that's a big ask for down here. It can happen with these upper level systems but it's tough when you get a costal low developing and you don't have as much cold air upstairs to work with. But not done with winter yet so who knows.

[txtwister78]

Latest NBM true snowfall accumulations through Friday

[txtwister78]

18z ICON is another example. Look at the adjustment in snowfall accumulations between one run. This is why in my opinion it's best to go with blends because these are wild swings here still showing up run to run and when you get mixed precip types involved I think that can create a false accumulation output. 12z to current 18z. Also high resolution will do a better job of sorting out where bands of precip setup so these totals won't be as broad.