Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Metalicwx220]

Next 5 Days
Monday
Jan 31
A shower possible 65°Lo 43°
Tuesday
Feb 1
Sun and some clouds 60°Lo 37°
more
Wednesday
Feb 2
Cloudy with a chance of rain 57°Lo 33°
Wed Night Showers.
Thursday
Feb 3
Cloudy with showers around 51°Lo 28° Thursday night cloudy. Friday
Feb 4
Partly sunny 53°Lo 34
Accuweather forecast. I WANT TO SEE SNOW BAD. IS THERE ANY CHANCE WE SEE SNOW NEXT? Im getting worried it might be a b__T

[BigB0882]

Where is everyone tonight, taking a nap before the 00z Euro later? lol

[bella_may]

Where is everyone tonight, taking a nap before the 00z Euro later? lol

That's what I'm wondering

[BigB0882]

It's either that or the GFS was so disgusting that people refuse to talk about it. Or maybe, just maybe, it showed an epic snowstorm for everyone inch of the South and those that saw it passed out!

[iorange55]

It's either that or the GFS was so disgusting that people refuse to talk about it. Or maybe, just maybe, it showed an epic snowstorm for everyone inch of the South and those that saw it passed out!

Hasn't come out yet, or actually it's probably starting now. For some reason though the website is being wonky for me.

[BigB0882]

It is rolling out now, out to 42 hours or so from what I can see. I just thought it was usually done by now.

[Ntxw]

Site isn't working, I'm using rapid update from accuwx it's out to 90, nothing unusual yet.

[iorange55]

Site isn't working, I'm using rapid update from accuwx it's out to 90, nothing unusual yet.

I thought it was just me, phew.

[BigB0882]

I am using twisterdata, am I even looking at the right site? lol

[bella_may]

Can you guys post the link to that site?

[heelgolfer]

My Gosh..the 12z Euro has the -12c line settling down to the North central Gulf coast, that is single digits approaching the Gulf coast

http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/9739/1 ... pus192.gif

Man not sure what that model is suggesting but it seems to repeatedly SEVERELY overstate the amount of cold air that is going to be in place next week as suggested by GSP's fcast discussion below.....for RAIN!!!!!!!!!!! Seems to me the ECMWF is always coming up with some ridiculous polar assault on the SE US that never materializes. I live 30 mins south of Raleigh, NC and we have continually been on the cutting edge for these systems all winter long looks like to me this is another bust.

000
FXUS62 KGSP 271139
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EST THU JAN 27 2011

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...BUT STILL HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF VARIOUS FEATURES.
THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE GFS FOR THE DETAILS.

THE FIRST CONCERN OF THE PERIOD CENTERS AROUND FAST MOVING...LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE ARKLATEX ON
SUNDAY. THE GFS DAMPENS THIS WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY FASTER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.
THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH ITS BETTER FORCING. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FEATURED IN
THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND I-40 CORRIDOR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME MIXED PTYPE WITH ANY PRECIP THAT IS GENERATED.
SINCE WE ARE GOING WITH THE DRIER GFS...DONT EXPECT THIS TO AMOUNT
TO MUCH IF ANYTHING AT ALL.

ONCE THAT FEATURE PUSHES EAST ON MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL SETUP
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE MODELS ALL HAVE SIMILAR
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT PHASES WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN VORT MAX THEN MOVES EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS EVOLUTION
LEAVES THE MEAN TROF WELL TO THE WEST WITH A TROF AXIS ORIENTED
ALMOST WEST TO EAST. THE MOST ENCOURAGING SIGN IS THAT BOTH MODELS
NOW DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE IT EASTWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE GULF LOW TRACK...THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD SUPPORT ONLY LIQUID
ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

[Metalicwx220]

Tuesday
Feb 1
Sun and some clouds 68°Lo 54° Wednesday
Feb 2
Warm with rain and a t-storm 72°Lo 49°
more Thursday
Feb 3
Sun through high clouds 63°Lo 37°
more FridayFeb 4
Cloudy 56°Lo 38°
more Saturday
Feb 5
Clouds giving way to some sun 62°Lo 39°
more
Bust look at the temps compared to yesterday.

[Metalicwx220]

18z DGEX Snowfall map going out to 192 hours

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... now192.gif

These maps update by themselves lol.

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from this afternoon's discussion from
the NWS in New Orleans, LA. In my opinion it really doesn't say
much (if anything)in reference to temperatures or precipitation
for late next week but as mentioned in another post they are
obviously on the GFS bandwagon.


.LONG TERM...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. DID BUMP
POPS UP TO AROUND 50PCT FOR SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW. EXPECTING A LULL IN PRECIP BUT STILL POSSIBLY SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ON MONDAY. STILL NO REAL CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN LOWS NOW ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 50. BEYOND
THAT POINT...BIGGER CHANGES IN FCST MODELS FROM 24 HRS AGO. GFS WENT
FROM BEING THE OUTLIER TO WHAT MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS AGREE WITH.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT NOT MANY CHANGES FROM MORNING FCST PACKAGE. WHILE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY/MID WEEK...AN UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS TX AND LA BEFORE MERGING WITH MAIN TROUGH WED.
POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM TUES THROUGH WED AND THEN A FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IF MODELS DECIDE TO CONTINUE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO...CONFIDENCE MAY INCREASE ABOUT THIS FORECAST.

[PTrackerLA]

Love how they don't even mention the Euro that shows possible single digits in parts of their CWA next week. Pretty bland discussion given the wide range of solutions possible IMO.

[BigB0882]

I don't understand why they are hugging the GFS so hard when almost all of the other models show the cold at least taking a bite out of LA even if isn't as severe as it is to the west in TX. If I had 1 model against 4 then I would at least mention that. I can only assume they have their reasons, we will see if they are right. 0z runs tonight are going to be interesting, as always... I would really like to see the cold come East a bit so LA can play, too.

[Lane]

Looks like the deep south will have no snow

[BigB0882]

Looks like the deep south will have no snow

Yeah, unless there is a drastic change within the next 48 hours or so I doubt we will see any snow and some models don't even want us to see the freezing point.

[BigB0882]

Long range, of course, and from the 18z GFS which is not my favorite model at the moment ( ) but maybe this will be something for us to watch for along the Gulf coast:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[MississippiWx]

^^^^ Same thing the GFS was showing for here that far out with this coming storm. You see what the GFS has come up with now.

However, I wouldn't give up completely. The European looks promising for us, but we need the other models to trend that way as well.