Texas Winter 2013-2014

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Widespread freeze ongoing this morning across the area with lows down into the mid 20’s from Conroe to Huntsville and NE toward Lake Livingston. However a much bigger and stronger cold snap is on the way for early next week.

Upper level pattern will remain amplified through the period with high pressure ridging over the eastern Pacific into Alaska which will send another shot of very cold arctic air southward this weekend. Models continue to come in colder and colder with this air mass as more of the air mass pours southward down this plains before shifting eastward. This air mass means business and may set low temperature records in the northern plains which for January is very impressive…the forecast high temperature for Fargo, ND early next week is around -20F. Arctic boundary will plow through the region on Sunday with temperatures quickly falling into the 30’s and 40’s during the day. Luckily winds will stay up Sunday night, but still expect a widespread freeze and wind chill values into the 10’s and 20’s over the entire region.

Big concern is Monday night into Tuesday morning as arctic high builds overhead and winds go nearly calm under clear skies and very low dewpoints (8-16 degrees over the area). Expect temperatures to fall below freezing shortly after sunset and remain below freezing for up to 12-15 hours. Looks like lows could fall into the upper 10’s across our northern counties with low to mid 20’s along the US 59 corridor and even freezing at the coast. Will likely need a hard freeze warning for most areas for next Monday night as many areas will fall below 25 degrees for more than 2 hours. Tropical plants will need protection along with any exposed outdoor pipes and sprinkler systems. We are still a good bit of time before the event so temperatures could trend upward or downward over the weekend…but residents should take advantage of the “warmer” weather on Saturday to prepare for the upcoming very cold conditions.

Large arctic high begins to shift eastward next Wednesday allowing a moderation of temperatures and a return of moisture and possibly some low rain chances to the region.

[Rgv20]

NWS Corpus Christi morning discussion....Temperature wise I do kind of miss the 70's.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND EARLY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DROPPING INTO
THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES
IN MODEL TIMING...BUT EXPECT FROPA GENERALLY AROUND DAYBREAK GIVE OR
TAKE...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY MORNING IN MOST ALL INLAND LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING COLDER EACH MODEL RUN...AND IT NOW APPEARS TUESDAY MORNING
IN PARTICULAR COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE COASTAL BEND. CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT COULD BE STRONGER BUT
CERTAINLY WILL BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY AS THE TIME APPROACHES.

MODELS PUSH THE COLD SURFACE HIGH OFF TO THE EAST RELATIVELY
QUICKLY...WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING LATE TUESDAY AND PICKING UP IN
EARNEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INTRODUCE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WEST
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO BRING WARMER AIR RAPIDLY BACK INTO SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE 70S AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.

[Rgv20]

Had a low of 31F this morning, houses rooftops and cars were cover with a nice layer of ice! To my knowledge this is the 3rd (light) freeze in my backyard so far this winter compare that to last year in which I only had 1!!

[TexasF6]

We are in the TEENS in many parts of Travis county! 19 in Georgetown. 21 at the Longhorn Wx Center in NW Austin!!! And the noisey subtropical Pacific looks very interestingly interesting to my eyes......

[wxman57]

A few meteograms off the 6Z GFS. Temps were similar in the Euro deterministic & ensembles. Love the 70s next week following a cold start of the week in Houston. All guidance still forecasts a quite progressive pattern with the cold Arctic high moving east very quickly on Tuesday/Wednesday, resulting in deep flow off the warm Gulf across SE TX by Wednesday. That deep Gulf flow doesn't get all the way north of Dallas, however.

Oh, and no snow or any frozen precip for north TX (Dallas area) through next week. This will be a very dry cold.

[Stormcenter]

You still have to survive the Arctic plunge early next week before you see those 70's wxman57.

[wxman57]

You still have to survive the Arctic plunge early next week before you see those 70's wxman57.

I think I can survive a light freeze Mon/Tue. Might hit 29 degrees at my house in SW Houston. I'll just wear a coat when I walk from my car to the office those days. Looks like I'll be $1 Billion dollars richer by next Wednesday!

[ronyan]

The forecast low per NWS Monday night for where I am in Lake Jackson is 26F. Pretty sure you should get at least that cold wxman.

[wxman57]

The forecast low per NWS Monday night for where I am in Lake Jackson is 26F. Pretty sure you should get at least that cold wxman.

Nah, I'm close to the SW corner of the 610 loop. Upper 20s should be about it for me. I think I'll survive. Temp hit -42F when I was in Winter Park Colorado for a ski trip back in 1989. No wind, no clouds. The temperature hit about -10F by lunch time. We sat outside at the mid mountain restaurant and had a burger with our coats unzipped so we wouldn't get too warm. Didn't need ice in our drinks. Skiing would be a lot more fun if the temperature was in the 80s or 90s and the ice didn't melt.

[weatherguy425]

Definitely getting ahead of myself here. BUT, as far as storm potential goes, I would watch the January 11th - 14th time-frame, pretty closely. Projected oscillations will make the forecast tricky - however, both ECMWF & GFS operational runs have picked up on unsettled weather during this time-frame.

[ronyan]

The forecast low per NWS Monday night for where I am in Lake Jackson is 26F. Pretty sure you should get at least that cold wxman.

Nah, I'm close to the SW corner of the 610 loop. Upper 20s should be about it for me. I think I'll survive. Temp hit -42F when I was in Winter Park Colorado for a ski trip back in 1989. No wind, no clouds. The temperature hit about -10F by lunch time. We sat outside at the mid mountain restaurant and had a burger with our coats unzipped so we wouldn't get too warm. Didn't need ice in our drinks. Skiing would be a lot more fun if the temperature was in the 80s or 90s and the ice didn't melt.

I would take the bet that you won't be above 26F Tuesday morning. Our temps here usually run close to Houston's.

[Portastorm]

You still have to survive the Arctic plunge early next week before you see those 70's wxman57.

I think I can survive a light freeze Mon/Tue. Might hit 29 degrees at my house in SW Houston. I'll just wear a coat when I walk from my car to the office those days. Looks like I'll be $1 Billion dollars richer by next Wednesday!

Gang, we have to do something to wipe that smug smile off of Heat Miser's mug. The PWC is running out of options! We're doing everything we can ... I'm even channeling my inner msstateguy to will away that damn progressive nature of next week's 500mb flow!

70s in Houston next week ... haaa! Good luck with that, Heat Miser. Ain't happening ... at least thru next Thursday.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Porta, do you still think Austin has a good chance of seeing snow this winter?

[srainhoutx]

Definitely getting ahead of myself here. BUT, as far as storm potential goes, I would watch the January 11th - 14th time-frame, pretty closely. Projected oscillations will make the forecast tricky - however, both ECMWF & GFS operational runs have picked up on unsettled weather during this time-frame.

The Canadian suggested a cold core low/upper trough moving in from Northern Mexico with a Coastal wave developing around that time frame with wintry weather associated with the upper trough/low across New Mexico into the Panhandle and portions of N Texas and Oklahoma. We will see.

[Portastorm]

Porta, do you still think Austin has a good chance of seeing snow this winter?

By my accounting, we have eight solid weeks of opportunity left. I don't count March ... at least below Waco ... because anything which might happen would be very rare. Possible, but very rare. So I consider January-February as our prime opportunity. Lots of time left. And that very warm pool of ocean temps in the NE Pacific isn't going anywhere. So that means there will be more -EPO in our future. You've seen what it has done to date. Since mid November, most of the state is well below average temperature-wise.

A "good chance" of snow? I don't know if I would say a "good chance." I'd probably go with a slightly above average chance, still. Yes.

It's a shame though that we're wasting all of this good, cold, sub-freezing weather without any precipitation. As I told my good friend srainhoutx this morning, I'm getting tired of the cold without precip. Give me a solid winter weather event (or two) and I'll willingly turn over the weather control board to the evil one, Heat Miser.

[vbhoutex]

Porta, do you still think Austin has a good chance of seeing snow this winter?

By my accounting, we have eight solid weeks of opportunity left. I don't count March ... at least below Waco ... because anything which might happen would be very rare. Possible, but very rare. So I consider January-February as our prime opportunity. Lots of time left. And that very warm pool of ocean temps in the NE Pacific isn't going anywhere. So that means there will be more -EPO in our future. You've seen what it has done to date. Since mid November, most of the state is well below average temperature-wise.

A "good chance" of snow? I don't know if I would say a "good chance." I'd probably go with a slightly above average chance, still. Yes.

It's a shame though that we're wasting all of this good, cold, sub-freezing weather without any precipitation. As I told my good friend srainhoutx this morning, I'm getting tired of the cold without precip. Give me a solid winter weather event (or two) and I'll willingly turn over the weather control board to the evil one, Heat Miser.

I'm not sure I'd give up that much and we have a lot less chance of snow in Houston than you do in Austin!!

[wxman57]

By my accounting, we have eight solid weeks of opportunity left. I don't count March ... at least below Waco ... because anything which might happen would be very rare. Possible, but very rare. So I consider January-February as our prime opportunity. Lots of time left. And that very warm pool of ocean temps in the NE Pacific isn't going anywhere. So that means there will be more -EPO in our future. You've seen what it has done to date. Since mid November, most of the state is well below average temperature-wise.

A "good chance" of snow? I don't know if I would say a "good chance." I'd probably go with a slightly above average chance, still. Yes.

It's a shame though that we're wasting all of this good, cold, sub-freezing weather without any precipitation. As I told my good friend srainhoutx this morning, I'm getting tired of the cold without precip. Give me a solid winter weather event (or two) and I'll willingly turn over the weather control board to the evil one, Heat Miser.

I'd agree that the chances for seeing a little snow in Austin are a little above average this winter. The first 2 weeks of February may be your best chance. Agree, cold is wasted without snow. But my favorite part of your answer was the "eight solid weeks of opportunity" left. I count only 55 more days until the warmth of March when I take control of the weather!

[dhweather]

Well, it looks like the glancing blow scenario is growing much more likely, thus we will rebound fairly quick. Like porta said, we have about 8 weeks left for something to happen. It just won't be in the first half of January.

[Rgv20]

Looks like the coldest day for deep south texas on the 12zGFS is Monday with high temperatures in the low 40s under cloudy skies. Since Mid November I have lost count of how many days we have spent under cloudy drizzly skies with temperatures in the 50s or 40s.

[wxman57]

I would take the bet that you won't be above 26F Tuesday morning. Our temps here usually run close to Houston's.

New GFS has warm advection starting across SE TX before sunrise Tuesday with the high center in Louisiana by midnight Monday and all the way in Alabama by sunrise Tuesday. That may put a halt to falling temps in Houston in the middle of the night on Monday.