Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

Jan 20th to Feb 20th should be primetime for winter down here!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Not sure if you have heard of eric webb. He posts alot on twitter. He said mid to end January is our only opportunity at winter weather because he thinks feb is a blowtorch for us because of niña climatology. I would like to get one more shot at winter weather with a -epo, especially if mjo gets in colder phases like forecast.

So he’s taking a textbook Nina climo map and saying that to followers?

Lazy. February, regardless of Nina or Nino, is typically a great month for us. It can be chaotic in Nina’s with wild swings, but it’s never boring.

[Itryatgolf]

Not sure if you have heard of eric webb. He posts alot on twitter. He said mid to end January is our only opportunity at winter weather because he thinks feb is a blowtorch for us because of niña climatology. I would like to get one more shot at winter weather with a -epo, especially if mjo gets in colder phases like forecast.

So he’s taking a textbook Nina climo map and saying that to followers?

Lazy. February, regardless of Nina or Nino, is typically a great month for us. It can be chaotic in Nina’s with wild swings, but it’s never boring.

I think you are correct. The guy is smart but he isn't perfect and i hope February is colder than what people think

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1609684139988467713

[Ntxw]

The AO is your long-term indicator for Nina Feb torches (really Ninas as a whole). Early in winter I made a post about what separates a blowtorch Nina-Climo winter and those are encompassed by ++AO. Having the big -AO in December really helped out.

Even this warm pattern now isn't run by the +AO. If it was the case winter would be over.

[Brent]

Not sure if you have heard of eric webb. He posts alot on twitter. He said mid to end January is our only opportunity at winter weather because he thinks feb is a blowtorch for us because of niña climatology. I would like to get one more shot at winter weather with a -epo, especially if mjo gets in colder phases like forecast.

So he’s taking a textbook Nina climo map and saying that to followers?

Lazy. February, regardless of Nina or Nino, is typically a great month for us. It can be chaotic in Nina’s with wild swings, but it’s never boring.

I mean we've had two Februaries in a row with the peak of winter in La Nina... I'm not sure I'm following why this year would be different. It's the same La Nina

Yeah in the southeast sure but not here

I'm not worried about it... Anyone who thinks winter is over on January 1st like come on

[Iceresistance]

Not sure if you have heard of eric webb. He posts alot on twitter. He said mid to end January is our only opportunity at winter weather because he thinks feb is a blowtorch for us because of niña climatology. I would like to get one more shot at winter weather with a -epo, especially if mjo gets in colder phases like forecast.

So he’s taking a textbook Nina climo map and saying that to followers?

Lazy. February, regardless of Nina or Nino, is typically a great month for us. It can be chaotic in Nina’s with wild swings, but it’s never boring.

I mean we've had two Februaries in a row with the peak of winter in La Nina... I'm not sure I'm following why this year would be different. It's the same La Nina

Yeah in the southeast sure but not here

I'm not worried about it... Anyone who thinks winter is over on January 1st like come on

If the AO becomes more positive like Ntxw mentioned, then Winter is indeed over for our area, but this winter is -AO dominant.

[harp]

Just now from Larry Cosgrove: “Massive SSW occurring will likely culminate with widespread Arctic intrusion and major storm along the Gulf and East Coasts mid-January.”

[Itryatgolf]

Just now from Larry Cosgrove: “Massive SSW occurring will likely culminate with widespread Arctic intrusion and major storm along the Gulf and East Coasts mid-January.”

Not sure i agree with Mr. Cosgrove. A stretching event to keep the pv from getting fully intact I agree with more than a SSW but imo

[Iceresistance]

Just now from Larry Cosgrove: “Massive SSW occurring will likely culminate with widespread Arctic intrusion and major storm along the Gulf and East Coasts mid-January.”

Not sure i agree with Mr. Cosgrove. A stretching event to keep the pv from getting fully intact I agree with more than a SSW but imo

A stretching event can do the same general outcome with an extremely unstable PV.

Even though it appears that the stretching is less common than the splitting events.

[dpep4]

Man, we've got an Enhanced Risk in northeast Texas tomorrow but the winter nerds are OCDing over Feb cold.

[Iceresistance]

Man, we've got an Enhanced Risk in northeast Texas tomorrow but the winter nerds are OCDing over Feb cold.

It's winter! Of course we're watching the cold more!

This needs to be watched, the mesoscale models are trending the severe weather potential further west, towards me!

[Cpv17]

Man, we've got an Enhanced Risk in northeast Texas tomorrow but the winter nerds are OCDing over Feb cold.

That’s just how most of us on here are. Severe storms are far more common down here than really cold weather with potential wintry weather. It’s much more exciting for us to talk about since it rarely happens. Severe weather happens several times a year in Texas. Plus there’s not a lot of people from northeast Texas on here. It’s mostly DFW driven.

[Cpv17]

Well the ensembles were starting to look better but the past few runs have went back to +EPO it seems.

[Iceresistance]

Today could get nasty, the dew point is 60°F.

[Tammie]

Interesting Tweet from Joe Bastardi
https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/stat ... wkPbtoDrWw

[cstrunk]

I'm watching the severe threat closely today from Longview.

[Itryatgolf]

I know it's only Jan 2nd, but I believe winter is over other than a few quick cool shots. We can look back at this post if I'm wrong but it really seems that way. Too much consensus for that outcome. The hypeist will hype, but I will remain optimistic because it's still winter and winter just started

[Cpv17]

Yeah northeast TX is gonna get hammered today. Lots of chasers setting up over there.

[Cpv17]

Today could get nasty, the dew point is 60°F.

69 here but I’m too far south for anything.