Texas Winter 2010-2011

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
244 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE OCCUR. A WEAK UPPER
TROF THEN LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE BUT ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC GETS PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROF. WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE MOISTURE IS RICHEST...SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NEXT THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ARCTIC AIR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PERSISTENTLY SHOWN A PRETTY
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SOMETIME MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROF
THEN PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS RAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE
TENDENCY FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO SOMETIMES OVERDO WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. WILL WATCH HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Still no clear picture of weather here for Super Bowl week in NTX. But with Green Bay in the game it should be fitting to have some Green Bay weather.

[jasons2k]

Ah another day another set of outcomes with the same constant variables! Though euro is same pattern, it's backed off on the cold a bit and storm to the north while the GFS is trending colder and wetter LOL. As the soap progresses...

Not a good trend on the Euro (starting to come more in line with the Canadian), system looks way too progressive and the eastern trough rules once again - meaning dry, cold northwest flow for the southern plains.

At least on this run, The cause of the progressive nature of this trough appears to be the southern stream showing up and preventing the northern stream energy from digging into the southwest. No bueno!!

I'll take it, but I feel for my friends in Florida if this run is how it ends-up. But it looks to me like the coldest push will be east of us - at least as depicted on the Euro. Whether or not it verifies is another question....

[srainhoutx]

For Portastorm (and other Central TX folks)...

Austin/San Antonio:

FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS. THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DYNAMICS
PASSING NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER
TROUGH WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A COOL AIRMASS FILTERING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE LARGER MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD MAKE FOR A
DRIER AIRMASS WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WHILE THE
GFS WOULD ALLOW FOR A COLD RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DUE TO SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS. SHOULD THE COLD AIR
INDICATED BY THE LARGER MODEL CONSENSUS MATERIALIZE ALONG WITH THE
WESTERN POSITION OF THE TROUGH BY THE GFS...THEN THERE WOULD BE A
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION. HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MEX
POPS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR SUNDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE WARMER THAN MEX SATURDAY NIGHT DUE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS...THEN COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY DUE STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

[Ntxw]

Before we frantically panic over the 12z op european run,the Euro ensembles strongly disagree with the east based shunt. That ridge out west is shooting up beyond Alaska, so I think the HPC has it right by maintaining the overall idea of a sharp trough through the rockies into Mexico and beyond. GFS continues to be our silver lining today. 18z suggest a further south/robust shortwave (as it has been harping from day 1 and I highly doubt a central plains solution will verify since the baroclinic zone will be significantly south). The northern jet and the southern jet looks like they will converge somewhere in the southern plains, usually means the creation of a strong system so I feel moisture availability with this feature is underdone at this time.

[orangeblood]

Finally noticed a good trend regarding next week. Anyone checked out the 12Z European ensembles ? If you haven't, I'd recommend looking over it. Much colder and stronger with the high pressure coming right down the lee side of the Rockies. Also, much deeper with the trough swinging through after the front arrives.

[orangeblood]

You read my mind, Ntxw!!!

[Ntxw]

You read my mind, Ntxw!!!

Just using the noggin and tools generously provided

[Portastorm]

The Portastorm Weather Center just concluded a quick media briefing, covered by Storm 2K News. The PWC director was quoted as saying:

"Phasing, schmaysing. I don't care what these operational model runs show, here at the Portastorm Weather Center our motto is 'you want snow, you got snow!' We're gonna deliver for next week. Bright minds concur about this, too. It's not just the PWC meteorologists looking at things through their snow-colored glasses. When you see talented weather minds such as Ntxw and orangeblood touting the King Euro ensembles and talking sharp West Coast ridging, we say it is GAME ON."

[srainhoutx]

Finally noticed a good trend regarding next week. Anyone checked out the 12Z European ensembles ? If you haven't, I'd recommend looking over it. Much colder and stronger with the high pressure coming right down the lee side of the Rockies. Also, much deeper with the trough swinging through after the front arrives.

Just a tad further W...

[txagwxman]

Anyway we can just get rid of the GFS model for good?

18z not even close to the ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles next week.

[srainhoutx]

Anyway we can just get rid of the GFS model for good?
18z not even close to the ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles next week.

I did sniff out the pattern. Finer details or not...

[txagwxman]

Anyway we can just get rid of the GFS model for good?
18z not even close to the ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles next week.

I did sniff out the pattern. Finer details or not...

It sniff's it out, then once it gets close it backs off.

[srainhoutx]

Anyway we can just get rid of the GFS model for good?
18z not even close to the ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles next week.

I did sniff out the pattern. Finer details or not...


It sniff's it out, then once it gets close it backs off.

Hmmm..scoring in the 5 day range slightly favors the Euro, but not by much. After all, that is crunch time. I'll give any model credit if it sniffs out a pattern and the GFS and it's ensembles have done rather well, to this point, IMO.

[Ntxw]

Lets just incorporate the GFS as a full time ensemble member . Tbh that's how we should treat it anyway, with it's biases and feedback issues.

[Portastorm]

Dude (Ntxw) ... I don't know if the Portastorm Weather Center marketing budget has anything left, but I'm checking. Brilliant avatar!

It may be time to write up a contract.

[Ntxw]

Dude (Ntxw) ... I don't know if the Portastorm Weather Center marketing budget has anything left, but I'm checking. Brilliant avatar!

It may be time to write up a contract.

Give me some snow and the services will be a one time promo, free!

[txagwxman]

[
Hmmm..scoring in the 5 day range slightly favors the Euro, but not by much. After all, that is crunch time. I'll give any model credit if it sniffs out a pattern and the GFS and it's ensembles have done rather well, to this point, IMO.[/quote]


I have been using the ECMWF for the last 15 years...it smashes the GFS on short-range and up to 6 days out. GFS improvements have done nothing, but maybe increase the skill score on first 72 hours.

[srainhoutx]

Point taken. I will say that since the upgrade, since you brought that up, the GFS is lacking in the tropics as we witnessed last summer and was well noted by the HPC. Mid latitudes, that is a different ball game, IMO. Perhaps another time and place would be better suited for this discussion. There is active weather ahead with rain chances this weekend and then the ‘event’ we’ve been tracking the 17th…

[Portastorm]

Well, I was about to enter the fray here and contest txagwxman's usage of the word "smashes" about the GFS ... but then I looked at the recent 5-day and 6-day skill scores. The Euro is indeed smashing the GFS by almost 15 points (918 to 903) in the 5-day range. In the 6-day range, the gap narrows some (857 to 844). I've not been bashful about being a Euro-hugger but even these scores surprise me a bit.

What is also interesting is that the GFS is now consistently scoring third behind King Euro and the UKMet.

By the way, if anyone wants to look at these scores, you can find them here:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

The challenge here is that one can look at daily scores and gauge which models are working effectively but then we also have instances where certain models seem to capture certain events/periods better. Example: The Canadian with the big Nor'easter a few weeks back.

[Ivanhater]

For some Tuesday Evening entertainment for my friends over in Texas..18z DGEX Snowfall accumulation map