Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tireman4]

Wxman57... I went ahead and donated $100 to storm2k with an attached Arctic juju front to fight your evil heating powers!!

Good luck on that. Meanwhile, I applied a liberal coating of grease to all of Greenland to keep things moving along. No block allowed...

Sigh......

[Ntxw]

Greenland block won't mean a thing for us if the EPO goes positive like the longer trend models are showing. It'll just be stormy and mild like last year and the year before, lots of Greenland blocking back then. It will just funnel all the cold in Canada to Europe the same way the -EPO funnels asia over to us. I hope that is isn't true, we'll be flooded with Pacific air while Alaska freezes. We'll see though, warm pool tends to win and hopefully it's a fluke. That's for the middle term, -EPO likely returns mid to late month after the current dip.

Said Greenland block is overrated for Texas. It's only felt hard on the east coast, we want ridging off the NE coast not Greenland. -EPO is where you want to see the block.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of NE coast block, a pretty decent one is going to torch the east coast in a little over a week. On the opposite end a deep trough is forced to dig dipping into the southern Rockies/northern MX, mentioned several times by several posters, suggest a snowstorm potential for the southern plains. We'll see, it's shown up on the ensembles and control several times and now some deterministic runs are pointing at it.

[Jarodm12]

nam showing sleet and freezing rain at 30 hours in north Texas hopefully the start of a trend id like to see more sleet than freezing rain

[srainhoutx]

Ugh. 1056mb Arctic high pushing into Western Montana by hour 42 via the 00Z NAM. A trailing 1050mb high pushing S in the NW Territories. The PV anomaly is a bit further W and the Southern Plains short wave is a tad further S of the Red River Valley. Snow is breaking out across Oklahoma and points NE. The front is already near the Gulf Coast before dawn on Sunday.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion..

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER WESTERN CANADA
SPILLING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXCEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OFFSHORE THE
LOWER TX COAST. MAIN CONCERN IS THE COLD AIR AND WINDS SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS BOTH GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING AND
WITH THE WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 20S
NORTH...UPPER 20S SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE MEX AND ECM MOS
CONTINUE TO RUN COLDER SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL INDICIES MAY BE COLDER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...FREEZE
WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF
THE CWA SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING.

[wxman57]

Here are some meteograms from the overnight GFS. Brief cool-down starts tomorrow but I take control of the thermostat by Tuesday evening. 00Z Euro has an upper low tracking across South TX on the 12th and a deep trof across the state on the 4th. Probably lots of precip. The bad news for anyone looking for snow is that it also has no cold air over Texas beyond early next week. Temps in the 50s and 60s with rain mid month.

[Snowman67]

NWS forecasting colder temps than meteograms indicate. They are calling for a low of 24 Houston (IAH) on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... sgZG9R5mK0

[wxman57]

NWS forecasting colder temps than meteograms indicate. They are calling for a low of 24 Houston (IAH) on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... sgZG9R5mK0

Right, the 2m temps from the models are just a guideline. Could be colder or warmer.

[Ntxw]

Leading edge of cold front is making it's way through the panhandle. Deeper cold air mass is in the northern high plains moving south. The coldest air is sitting in NW Canada with the big building HP coming down.

DFW did not register a freeze this morning, 28th will be tomorrow and 30th come Tuesday.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Arctic cold front will bring very cold conditions to the region Sun-Tues…coldest air in 3 years is likely.

Preparations for a damaging hard freeze should be underway.

Arctic boundary is blasting down the plains this morning and will plow across TX tonight and off the coast early Sunday. High temperatures will occur prior to the frontal passage with a quick drop and continued fall of temperatures all day on Sunday even under mostly clear skies. Strong north winds of 25-30mph will drive wind chills into the 20’s and 30’s on Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday morning:

Damaging advective freeze is likely across much of the area along with gusty north winds and low wind chills. Large 1040mb arctic high building into TX will continue winds overnight and this would usually save the region from a freeze however this air mass is so cold that the freezing line will push south under the influence of the strong cold air advection. Expect temperatures to fall to freezing by mid evening north of HWY 105 and midnight north of US 59. Lows Monday morning will range from 24-27 north of HWY 105 to 26-30 along and N of US 59 to 31-35 along the coast. Gusty north winds will hamper the typical freeze precautions of covering tropical vegetation as this process does not work well with the wind blowing and removing the ground warmth away from the vegetation. These types of freezes tend to be damaging for vegetation for this area. Wind chills Monday morning will range from 15-22 across the region. Duration below freezing 6-10 hours.

Cold air advection will continue on Monday with highs only reaching the low to mid 40’s under sunny conditions and continued north winds.

Monday night-Tuesday Morning:

Large arctic high pressure dome will be nearly overhead with very low dewpoints (1’s to 10’s) over the region with clear skies and near calm winds. This supports an excellent setup for a hard radiative freeze across much of the area. One item that may keep the temperatures from really bottoming out is that the large high will be moving eastward during this time and may get just far enough east to allow a weak onshore wind flow to develop between 300am and 600am Tuesday morning…however this will likely not save the area from a hard freeze…but may keep areas out of the upper 10’s. Expected lows will range from 19-22 north of HWY 105, 21-26 along and N of US 59, and 28-32 along the coast. Interior coastal counties could be in the 26-29 range. Some of the latest model guidance is even colder than this for Tuesday morning with the GFS forecasting a low of 15 at Conroe….think this is a bit too cold at the moment…but will have to watch. Duration below freezing 12-16 hours.

Large arctic high moves eastward Tuesday allowing southerly winds to return and a fairly quick return of moisture. Dewpoints will rise into the 50’s by Thursday and with very cold nearshore temperatures may start to see sea fog and drizzle move inland from Wednesday afternoon into Friday.

[Portastorm]

Greenland block won't mean a thing for us if the EPO goes positive like the longer trend models are showing. It'll just be stormy and mild like last year and the year before, lots of Greenland blocking back then. It will just funnel all the cold in Canada to Europe the same way the -EPO funnels asia over to us. I hope that is isn't true, we'll be flooded with Pacific air while Alaska freezes. We'll see though, warm pool tends to win and hopefully it's a fluke. That's for the middle term, -EPO likely returns mid to late month after the current dip.

Said Greenland block is overrated for Texas. It's only felt hard on the east coast, we want ridging off the NE coast not Greenland. -EPO is where you want to see the block.

I'm going to respectfully disagree. I think the Greenland block is pretty darn important in terms of "gumming up the works" and shutting down a progressive flow (like we have now). Yes, it could potentially create a ridge-trough pattern over the CONUS which keeps us west of the cold, stuck trough and in milder air. But that NE coast ridging you speak of can happen, ideally, when you have a Greenland block which retrogrades ... the mean trough position can be in place to continually dump cold air into Texas while keep an active jetstream/storm track in the vicinity. Don't forget it snowed in Amarillo this past spring (May 2013), courtesy of a Greenland block pattern.

Personally, I prefer a weakly positive PNA with negative AO/NAO. I think those setups end up great for us ... well, most of us. Not including Heat Miser and his minions.

[srainhoutx]

Greenland block won't mean a thing for us if the EPO goes positive like the longer trend models are showing. It'll just be stormy and mild like last year and the year before, lots of Greenland blocking back then. It will just funnel all the cold in Canada to Europe the same way the -EPO funnels asia over to us. I hope that is isn't true, we'll be flooded with Pacific air while Alaska freezes. We'll see though, warm pool tends to win and hopefully it's a fluke. That's for the middle term, -EPO likely returns mid to late month after the current dip.

Said Greenland block is overrated for Texas. It's only felt hard on the east coast, we want ridging off the NE coast not Greenland. -EPO is where you want to see the block.

I'm going to respectfully disagree. I think the Greenland block is pretty darn important in terms of "gumming up the works" and shutting down a progressive flow (like we have now). Yes, it could potentially create a ridge-trough pattern over the CONUS which keeps us west of the cold, stuck trough and in milder air. But that NE coast ridging you speak of can happen, ideally, when you have a Greenland block which retrogrades ... the mean trough position can be in place to continually dump cold air into Texas while keep an active jetstream/storm track in the vicinity. Don't forget it snowed in Amarillo this past spring (May 2013), courtesy of a Greenland block pattern.

Personally, I prefer a weakly positive PNA with negative AO/NAO. I think those setups end up great for us ... well, most of us. Not including Heat Miser and his minions.

We are just coming out of a West based -NAO/-AO/-EPO and slightly +PNA regime and what we are seeing with all the bitter cold air across the Eastern half of the CONUS is the result of that. Indications via the telecommunication indices are that the pattern will reload and return to such a pattern near mid January. Frankly I am ready for the upcoming 'January thaw'...

[Portastorm]

Winter = cancel

[wxman57]

Winter = cancel

Glad you finally agree. It's 64F and rising in southwest Houston. Time for a long bike ride! Back in 5 hours.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff via the KHOU Regional Weather Forum:

12Z GFS has 13 for CXO Tues AM and 21 at IAH. 12Z NAM has 19 for IAH. Could see upper 10's into NW/N Harris County on Tuesday AM from Katy to Cypress to Humble.

[Texas Snowman]

Winter = cancel

Glad you finally agree. It's 64F and rising in southwest Houston. Time for a long bike ride! Back in 5 hours.

I hear the equator is nice this time of year. Weren't you making plans to go there a few weeks ago?

[Texas Snowman]

Update from Jeff via the KHOU Regional Weather Forum:

12Z GFS has 13 for CXO Tues AM and 21 at IAH. 12Z NAM has 19 for IAH. Could see upper 10's into NW/N Harris County on Tuesday AM from Katy to Cypress to Humble.

good bike riding weather!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Other than maybe Feb 2011, i cant remember the last time IAH or actual Houston hit the teens. Been a while. Maybe 96

[Rgv20]

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. So there is a chance.....