Texas Winter 2017-2018

[South Texas Storms]

What are the ensembles saying?

Several GFS Ensemble members show decent snowfall totals across the northern half of TX.

6z GFS Operational continues to show the winter storm threat across a large part of the state to start the new year.

[srainhoutx]

Just shy of 30F colder this morning at my house versus yesterday morning. Another stronger shot of cold air arrives Sunday setting the stage for coats and jackets Christmas Eve night and Christmas day instead of shorts and flip flops. Merry Christmas gang. We have endured a lot this past year weather wise. I wish each of you the very best that Christmas can offer you and your Family.

[Texas Snow]

From NWS FWD

By Thursday, model solutions diverge which will have substantial
implications for the forecast through the end of next week. The
operational GFS digs a deeper trough to our west in a much more
amplified flow regime than the ECMWF. As a result, it sends
subfreezing air into North Texas along with another wave of ascent
to support precipitation. The more progressive ECMWF solution
would instead cause us to dry out while pushing the stalled front
well to our south. A quick look at GEFS solutions can shed a bit
of light on this predicament. Only 2 out of 20 of the GFS`s
ensemble brethren suggest that frozen precipitation is a
possibility during the second half of next week while the
remainder maintain a cold rain or even a dry solution more similar
to the ECMWF. Therefore, the operational GFS is representing an
outlying worst-case scenario with some wintry precip rather than
a most-likely outcome. As a result, have maintained low PoPs
through the end of the week with temperatures mostly near or just
above freezing. Obviously, we`ll keep watching model trends
through the next few days, but concerns still remain fairly low at
this time.

[gpsnowman]

Leaving for Caddo Lake for Christmas in a few hours and I don't think I will be able to post for a few days. Hope everyone has a wonderful and safe Christmas holiday. Maybe by the time I return on the 26th, we will be tracking a New Years blizzard!!

[bubba hotep]

Euro control still has an active winter wx pattern for Texas.

[South Texas Storms]

Euro control still has an active winter wx pattern for Texas.

Sure does. Euro Ensemble is also looking more promising in the long range now too.

[Ntxw]

Also the GEFS is trough-y in the new year to the SW. Maybe good sign for continued wet weather which we need

[Ntxw]

12z GFS took away 0Z late week's snowstorm, faster flow. Seasonably chilly.

[DFWLady]

Hey everyone! I've been hanging around the site for years keeping up with what's going on with the models through you guys! I have no clue how to look at models or see what's happening in Siberia lol. I keep up with it through this website and thank y'all for the information!

Im still hopeful for a winter weather event in DFW (come on snow!) Just thought I'd give a quick hello!

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS took away 0Z late week's snowstorm, faster flow. Seasonably chilly.

Yeah the 0z run was an outlier. Other models didn't really show much there. Early January has more potential to me.

[Ntxw]

Hey everyone! I've been hanging around the site for years keeping up with what's going on with the models through you guys! I have no clue how to look at models or see what's happening in Siberia lol. I keep up with it through this website and thank y'all for the information!

Im still hopeful for a winter weather event in DFW (come on snow!) Just thought I'd give a quick hello!

Welcome! Feel free to chime in anytime .

We will probably see at least one winter event in DFW (we always do even if it's just a little). All of January, February, and early March to go. Don't let the daily back and forth dissuade your hope! Sometimes it's not even the big storms that do it, it may just be a little shortwave flowing down from the north, we just need some luck.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Canadian looks kinda promising at the end of the run. Trough coming southeast out of the Rockies towards TX. Same time period as the past few GFS runs winter storm threat as well.

[Ntxw]

Both the GFS and CMC has a weak disturbance interacting with coming front this Weds/Thurs. Has DFW in the low 40s with 0C 850s close by. Maybe if we can get the STJ to work with us a little and cold air to come a little faster

[DFWLady]

Hey everyone! I've been hanging around the site for years keeping up with what's going on with the models through you guys! I have no clue how to look at models or see what's happening in Siberia lol. I keep up with it through this website and thank y'all for the information!

Im still hopeful for a winter weather event in DFW (come on snow!) Just thought I'd give a quick hello!

Welcome! Feel free to chime in anytime .

We will probably see at least one winter event in DFW (we always do even if it's just a little). All of January, February, and early March to go. Don't let the daily back and forth dissuade your hope! Sometimes it's not even the big storms that do it, it may just be a little shortwave flowing down from the north, we just need some luck.

Thank you for the welcome! My hope will stay strong! Even in the beautiful 70 degree weather we had yesterday I will hold out hope! Every year we at least get one event! I enjoy the reading everything y'all say! Come on luck lol!

[Ntxw]

12z Canadian looks kinda promising at the end of the run. Trough coming southeast out of the Rockies towards TX. Same time period as the past few GFS runs winter storm threat as well.

12z GFS has big front coming down and stalled Baja low trying to kick out overruning New Year's Eve

[South Texas Storms]

12z Canadian looks kinda promising at the end of the run. Trough coming southeast out of the Rockies towards TX. Same time period as the past few GFS runs winter storm threat as well.

12z GFS has big front coming down and stalled Baja low trying to kick out overruning New Year's Eve

Didn't really produce much this run.

Check out that nice trough digging into the West Coast on New Years Day with cold air in place across much of the region out ahead of it. 12z GFS might show another winter storm this run in early January.

[Ntxw]

12z Canadian looks kinda promising at the end of the run. Trough coming southeast out of the Rockies towards TX. Same time period as the past few GFS runs winter storm threat as well.

12z GFS has big front coming down and stalled Baja low trying to kick out overruning New Year's Eve

Didn't really produce much this run.

Check out that nice trough digging into the West Coast on New Years Day with cold air in place across much of the region out ahead of it. 12z GFS might show another winter storm this run in early January.

I hope the modeled west coast shift of the PNA to offshore pans out. That way we can get storms to dig down California and the southwest. Things have been just slightly too far east the past week or two.

[South Texas Storms]

You and me both buddy!

The trends in the long range models are promising. 12z GFS has a nice SW trough to start 2018.

[Ntxw]

Using the GFS MOS output as far as high temperatures go it's near 50+/- next 3 days at DFW. 47 and falling Wednesday, 38 Thursday, 38 Friday, and 42 next Saturday. Coldest low is 27 next Saturday and 28 for Christmas morning. Climo is 55/34 for the period averaged

[Ntxw]

Also DFW is +6.2F with no highs below 50 yet in the month. However I take this as a misconception because many of the cold days, the highs were recorded just after midnight. We've been really unlucky with frontal passage in that department so the max high counts for the +departures.

An example was yesterday when most of the day was in the upper 30s. But the official books has it 66 and 37. When 37 was what it was most of the day, the 66 occurred at 12:17AM.