Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

2nd Winter Wx event incoming on the 18z GFS

[bubba hotep]

The Wednesday night into Thursday freezing rain event will start moving into range of some of the high res models tomorrow. FWD still has plenty of time to hold tight but if trends continue then maybe watches on Monday?

[Iceresistance]

2nd Winter Wx event incoming on the 18z GFS

ETA: Lot's of snow in Oklahoma, up to 7 inches in Central Oklahoma



Also, that 2nd system was TINY & along the Red River in the 12z Run!

And Temperatures Trended a LOT COLDER NOW!

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Mid level flow across most
of the CONUS becomes zonal into mid week with a series of 500mb
shortwaves quickly working from the southern Pacific coast to
South Texas on Thursday and again on Saturday. The 500mb low spins
across eastern Canada before dropping south into the Northern
Plains and Great Lakes by the weekend. At the surface, low
pressure develops across the Plains by mid week, eventually
swinging northeast as a strong ridge of high pressure and arctic
air mass plunge out of central Canada next weekend.

The models have remained fairly inconsistent with the arctic air
mass next weekend locally. The GFS and EC especially are far from
any middle ground. Have coordinated with neighboring offices to
stick somewhere between previous forecast packages and a blend of
the GFS and NBM. This still brings the initial front through on
Thursday, with the bulk of the CAA arriving over the weekend. Have
kept any mention of freezing precip out of the forecast, however,
freezing temperatures are possible across portions of the
northern ranchlands Saturday and Sunday mornings. The best chance
of rain remains on Thursday prior to and after the front. There
may be pesky light rain or drizzle along the lower Texas coast and
lower RGV through the weekend.

[rwfromkansas]

So, I found this after seeing that map. I was curious if there was such a thing as ocean-effect snow. After I realized that wouldn't be possible here since the water is to the south, but anyway. Still fascinating. Apparently, Japan gets a lot of snow this way. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... fect-snow/

[SnowintheFalls]

2nd Winter Wx event incoming on the 18z GFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_27.png

Well I stand corrected!

[Cerlin]

GFS trended colder overall but also slightly later with the front it looks like.

[bubba hotep]

And a 3rd event! Key take away, cold air will be in place with an active wave packet coming in from the Pacific.

[Iceresistance]

And a 3rd event! Key take away, cold air will be in place with an active wave packet coming in from the Pacific.

Good Snow totals too in Oklahoma & Northern Texas!

[bubba hotep]

Wait, that 18z run keeps DFW under freezing for almost 200 hrs?????

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS much colder again. Teens down to the I-10 corridor again for next Saturday night. That hasn't shown up in several runs.

[bubba hotep]

[Iceresistance]

Wait, that 18z run keeps DFW under freezing for almost 200 hrs?????

https://media1.tenor.com/images/5b034e96d84c6c6b57a9a04ca14aac02/tenor.gif?itemid=9919713

Nearly 250 hours in OKC & Tecumseh!

JEEZ! That is NASTY COLD!

[wxman57]

No

That likely means that it was Sleeting! But I once had a hailstorm (Size of Peas) last year without lightning.

Wxman57 said it would have been hail, so I went with that.

Correct. With the freezing level at 8000 ft and little moisture above that, the only way to get ice would be in heavier convection that moved over your location. There doesn't need to be lightning for small hail to form.

[Iceresistance]

COD Meteorology GEFS Ensemble models is down, how are the 18z GEFS Ensembles doing right now?

[utweather]

Wait, that 18z run keeps DFW under freezing for almost 200 hrs?????

https://media1.tenor.com/images/5b034e96d84c6c6b57a9a04ca14aac02/tenor.gif?itemid=9919713

lol, thats the ole AVN/MRF model for ya. Thank goodness there wasn't social media back then. It cried wolf so many times.
I think I had 5hrs over 70 today though, been stuck at 69 for awhile.

[Cerlin]

-7 degrees in parts of central Oklahoma and near zero on the red river. That’s COLD. GFS is unrelenting with this cold snap.

[Iceresistance]

KFOR 7+4 in OKC calling for this:

[Iceresistance]

Temperature bust today

Only got up to 40°F today instead of 44°F

Now down to 38°F

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 has shown this forecast at 6:20 PM

They are watching a system next Monday that could be big. (Like the 18z GFS model)