Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

I swear if the pacific jet pattern comes back, all this rain means absolutely nothing, its simply a waste without cold air, could be the biggest joke of a winter we have had in a while

[txtwister78]

I swear if the pacific jet pattern comes back, all this rain means absolutely nothing, its simply a waste without cold air, could be the biggest joke of a winter we have had in a while

Oh I can assure you it means something to folks across SC TX where drought conditions still exist. I take your point about the cold pattern you were wanting/expecting to verify for all of Feb and the thought of having precip around potentially.

We've had some winter stinkers before no question, but that was a pretty wild stretch of cold we just expereinced. Hopefully we get another shot before winter is all done but my guess is the wait is going to be longer than some initially thought.

[Stratton23]

Maybe, but I still consider this heavy rain a waste given in a few months we will be lucky to see any rain at all, I would rather get this rain event in summer, when we will need it way more, disappointing to say the least

[txtwister78]

Maybe, but I still consider this heavy rain a waste given in a few months we will be lucky to see any rain at all, I would rather get this rain event in summer, when we will need it way more, disappointing to say the least

Long way to go until the summer when we transition away from an El Nino (been a weird one at that), but when you're still in a drought, folks will take what they can get when they can get it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Maybe, but I still consider this heavy rain a waste given in a few months we will be lucky to see any rain at all, I would rather get this rain event in summer, when we will need it way more, disappointing to say the least

Long way to go until the summer when we transition away from an El Nino (been a weird one at that), but when you're still in a drought, folks will take what they can get when they can get it.

This, and every bit of rain we get between now and May is a contribution to the factors that mitigate the upcoming summer heat. Since we’ll likely lose El Niño by some point during the spring, we need to take what we can get now

[gpsnowman]

Maybe, but I still consider this heavy rain a waste given in a few months we will be lucky to see any rain at all, I would rather get this rain event in summer, when we will need it way more, disappointing to say the least

Long way to go until the summer when we transition away from an El Nino (been a weird one at that), but when you're still in a drought, folks will take what they can get when they can get it.

This, and every bit of rain we get between now and May is a contribution to the factors that mitigate the upcoming summer heat. Since we’ll likely lose El Niño by some point during the spring, we need to take what we can get now

I'll take rain any day, week, month, or season. Anything to help keep the upcoming summer in check is a blessing.

[Iceresistance]

I really don't like what the CMC is showing.


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0FuL.png

[Ntxw]

I really don't like what the CMC is showing.

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0FuL.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0FuL.png

Even on the CMC temps in Oklahoma are marginal and would be overnight to early morning and then gets above freezing.

[Brent]

I really don't like what the CMC is showing.

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0FuL.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0FuL.png

Even on the CMC temps in Oklahoma are marginal and would be overnight to early morning and then gets above freezing.

Tulsa's graphic has everyone under .20" of an inch with the slightly higher amounts in Arkansas(.12" for Tulsa) so yeah im still not that concerned and again by lunch we're above freezing

Oh and far as the rain goes... I get it but most years it doesn't come around in the summer

[Iceresistance]

I really don't like what the CMC is showing.

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0FuL.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0FuL.png

Even on the CMC temps in Oklahoma are marginal and would be overnight to early morning and then gets above freezing.

Another issue is the fact the ground temperatures are low, there was one special case in Illinois in January 2014 when there was rain in the 40s, but the ground was below freezing!

[Ralph's Weather]

NWS SHV introduced a chance of a changeover to freezing rain Monday morning.

[Edwards Limestone]

Might as well just start the spring thread now

[Stratton23]

Agreed, winter is over, time to move on to a spring thread

[Cpv17]

I couldn’t give 2 cents what time of the year we get rain. I’m hella excited for it whenever we can get it.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Overnight suite of models looks mild until mid February, after this bout of cold.

Well that's quite a flip from just a couple of days ago. Is there much sudden confidence in this?

[orangeblood]

Overnight suite of models looks mild until mid February, after this bout of cold.

Well that's quite a flip from just a couple of days ago. Is there much sudden confidence in this?

Major MJO influence showing up, it showing signs of stalling in the warmer US phases and if it lags too long...winter will have already passed us by!!!!



This shows the entire North American continent being flooded by Pacific Air, from Alaska to Baja to start February. Hope we see this flip quickly in week 3 and beyond

[Stratton23]

Absolutely disgusting, thats all that map shows, pure utter atrocity

[Cpv17]

Absolutely disgusting, thats all that map shows, pure utter atrocity

Models change all the time. I wouldn’t lose sleep over it.

[orangeblood]

Absolutely disgusting, thats all that map shows, pure utter atrocity

Models change all the time. I wouldn’t lose sleep over it.

Sure but Ensemble Model consensus is tough to beat in the 10-14 day range

[South Texas Storms]

Overnight suite of models looks mild until mid February, after this bout of cold.

Well that's quite a flip from just a couple of days ago. Is there much sudden confidence in this?

Major MJO influence showing up, it showing signs of stalling in the warmer US phases and if it lags too long...winter will have already passed us by!!!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

This shows the entire North American continent being flooded by Pacific Air, from Alaska to Baja to start February. Hope we see this flip quickly in week 3 and beyond
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1705665600/1706961600-NLo5kdPce2U.png

What a beautiful sight! Let's keep the above normal rainfall pattern going as long as possible!