Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This may not be here, but Mount Sunflower, KS recorded 29 inches of snow Yesterday.

Holy crap. I never have heard of that much snow in Kansas. BTW, Mount Sunflower is actually quite flat, just the highest elevation. It's a funny name.

I did see insane videos yesterday of a ton of snow out in Western Kansas, but I was thinking more along the lines of 16 inches or so.

The most I ever saw there was about 14. If we can build the snowpack up north, that will really help us down here.

Found this from NWS-Dodge City, they got WAY more snow than the models expected.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Snowfall-totals-for-NWS-Dodge-City.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Snowfall-tot%20%20als-for-NWS-Dodge-City.png

NWS-Goodland does have the 27 inches at Mt. Sunflower.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Sno%20wfall-from-NWS-Goodland.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Sn%20owfall-from-NWS-Goodland.png

A REALLY intense band of snow stalled over a that area on the CO/KS border. It was bright yellow on the radar and didnt move for hours and hours.

[orangeblood]

Natural Gas Market just went off the rails with that Euro Run....up over 60% from $4.50 to over $6.50 per MMBTU

[txtwister78]

12z Euro is currently similar to CMC

ETA: Also has the Trough going faster like the GFS.

It's still a decent look though but the biggest takeway, IMO, is its going to a massive lower 48 Arctic Outbreak similar to GFS. Power Grid better start prepping now, wouldn't want a repeat of Feb 2021

I don't think we're looking at that level of widespread intense cold or obviously the frozen precip threat (at least right now), which certainly had an impact on wind turbines/solar etc, but of course always good to prepare. My guess is if models hold on by the weekend with the cold at least, the message will start to get out.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Natural Gas Market just went off the rails with that Euro Run....up over 60% from $4.50 to over $6.50 per MMBTU

That’s a larger jump than last year, initially.

[gboudx]

Natural Gas Market just went off the rails with that Euro Run....up over 60% from $4.50 to over $6.50 per MMBTU

Great. Our gas bills have been so much higher this winter so far. What's a few more dozens of bucks?

[wxman57]

Additional Tropical Tidbits info. I conversed with Levi, thanking him for adding in the additional ECMWF parameters. He doesn't have precip type because that data is not free. I asked him how much it costs, but no reply yet. Meanwhile, he could use your support. I know that many of you use his site constantly. If you could help him out a little each month, then that would go toward improving the data we all use. All you have to do is click the link below, click the "Patreon" link, and sign up for a monthly amount. That could be only a few dollars a month. If everyone who uses his site regularly would chip in a little, that would help.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/support/

OK, back to our regularly scheduled colder air and winter precip missing Texas to the east program...

[orangeblood]

Natural Gas Market just went off the rails with that Euro Run....up over 60% from $4.50 to over $6.50 per MMBTU

That’s a larger jump than last year, initially.

Hopefully just a brief intraday spike related to EOM expiration on futures contracts...although if GFS/Euro run comes close to verifying, Heating Degree days across the lower 48 will go ballistic

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Natural Gas Market just went off the rails with that Euro Run....up over 60% from $4.50 to over $6.50 per MMBTU

That’s a larger jump than last year, initially.

Hopefully just a brief intraday spike related to EOM expiration on futures contracts...although if GFS/Euro run comes close to verifying, Heating Degree days across the lower 48 will go ballistic

Maybe, but last years outbreak showed up right away in the 384 hr panel and stayed intact in varying degrees. That was the last few days of January.

[Brent]

Natural Gas Market just went off the rails with that Euro Run....up over 60% from $4.50 to over $6.50 per MMBTU

Great. Our gas bills have been so much higher this winter so far. What's a few more dozens of bucks?

Oh yeah don't get me started on that somehow it's our fault February happened even up here in Oklahoma they raised rates and the power largely stayed on here vs Texas

[HockeyTx82]

Natural Gas Market just went off the rails with that Euro Run....up over 60% from $4.50 to over $6.50 per MMBTU

Great. Our gas bills have been so much higher this winter so far. What's a few more dozens of bucks?

Oh yeah don't get me started on that somehow it's our fault February happened even up here in Oklahoma they raised rates and the power largely stayed on here vs Texas

Ummmmm, seriously is someone blaming us?

[Texas Snow]

Afternoon Update from FWD

A much larger trough will swing through the Central CONUS during
the middle of next week and will send a strong cold front through
the region on Wednesday. As is typical this far out, model
guidance has shifted from a slower/wetter solution to a
faster/drier solution during this time. Either way, a cold frontal
passage looks likely, and we will have some moisture to work with.
We`ll keep the 30-50% PoPs in during this time, and we`ll still
have to watch for the potential for some wintry weather on the
back side of the system late Wednesday into early Thursday.

So what is the thought on dissecting this: "As is typical this far out, model guidance has shifted from a slower/wetter solution to a faster/drier solution during this time"? Are they just saying obviously changes can be expected this far out OR are they referencing in the mid range where models sometimes lose a system and then bring it back several days out from the storm? Yes I am over analyzing That's what we do...

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is a HUGE Step in the right direction, timing & storm system speed is very important for this coming system.

[Ntxw]

Pretty cold 18z GFS. Where there was ice/snow single digits and low teens late next week.

[Ntxw]

Pretty cold 18z GFS. Where there was ice/snow single digits and low teens late next week.

Also it may get below freezing Wednesday evening and may not rise much above until Sunday.

[Brent]

Well for what it's worth the news here is hyping already big winter storm potential and coldest air of the season. Which we've had highs in the 20s already and gotten close to single digits at night so yeah that's cold

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Natural Gas Market just went off the rails with that Euro Run....up over 60% from $4.50 to over $6.50 per MMBTU

I see that it dropped some.

My analysis of the fantasy land GFS.....

It shows a 1062MB High in Minnesota, but the high goes due east with the upper level winds. This would mean minimal cold for the southern plains. It even shows it growing to 1069 in Eastern Canada.

More importantly, the insane blocking over alaska

[bubba hotep]

I know it's fun to watch the Mid-Atlantic and NE melt but the track of that system impacts NATL wave breaking which determines heights across the NE later. We need higher heights/more amped NE so that the system we are tracking can dig into the SW (check yo Q-G theory). Without that NATL priming we get the more progressive flow.

[Cpv17]

I know it's fun to watch the Mid-Atlantic and NE melt but the track of that system impacts NATL wave breaking which determines heights across the NE later. We need higher heights/more amped NE so that the system we are tracking can dig into the SW (check yo Q-G theory). Without that NATL priming we get the more progressive flow.

So what do we need that east coast system to do?

[Ralph's Weather]

The normally conservative SHV has introduced the snow word for day 7 here.

There is good potential and I fully expect the cold and precip to shift south from where it is modeled right now, but still need to wait until the weekend to have a good handle on things.

[Iceresistance]

KWTV News 9 has a low of 3°F, with a POWERFUL Winter Storm in the books for next week, the location of the storm system is also important, considering on how far south it could go.