Texas Winter 2024-2025

[HockeyTx82]

The ICON is far from the worst global model, in my opinion. It handled the tropical cyclone threats to TX very well, if not the best, of the globals last summer. It also typically has a good handle on temperatures, with no well known cold or hot bias.

I've felt it does well regarding situations where the surface plays a lead role, cold, lower level features etc. at 500mb it's had questionable fairly late shifts even with this current event, and some others the past couple of seasons. No model is perfect just have to know and account for each's strengths and weakness.

Yep that's why taking a blended model approach typically works best when making a forecast. The NBM model does a good job and that's why it's the NWS model of choice.

And with things firing off on here so fast what's the latest NBM say?

[snownado]

I've felt it does well regarding situations where the surface plays a lead role, cold, lower level features etc. at 500mb it's had questionable fairly late shifts even with this current event, and some others the past couple of seasons. No model is perfect just have to know and account for each's strengths and weakness.

Yep that's why taking a blended model approach typically works best when making a forecast. The NBM model does a good job and that's why it's the NWS model of choice.

And with things firing off on here so fast what's the latest NBM say?

Someone posted the latest NBM a couple pages back. It also shifted NW.

EDIT: Page 150

[Ntxw]

Just a reminder as the discussion continues fast-paced for those who are viewing the ups and downs, these are strictly talks run to run as we pick apart details. Follow the guidance of your national weather service as that will less likely go through these rollercoaster discussions.

And word of personal advice to not get too emotionally involved with it, you will gray fast .

[foulbeast]

[Iceresistance]

 https://x.com/collinmyerswx/status/1876371133957836864

[txtwister78]

In my opinion the HRRR/ NAM models probably have a better handle on what surface temperatures will be like, at this range the short range guidance gets the most weight

They may very well, but tough to ignore the trends from the others considering we were locked on to those just 24 hours ago with accumulation totals. GFS looks much different right now.

Globals leading up. Short range trust from here, no?

The main difference in the short range guidance right now is upper level temps and that is going to ultimately decide how much snow falls across the state and where. The further west you get from 35 the better chances you have because profiles out there regardless of what model you look at support all snow. It's just a question of how much QPF do they get.

Further east into the 35 corridor from DFW points south it becomes more complicated because of this coastal low and the amount of moisture being pulled north into whatever cold upstairs can be brought in west as the upper low begins to round and eject out. It's truly a battle of who wins out.

The short range models have shown a colder upper air profile than globals 48 hours out but it's still a wait and see until we get closer in range to determine if those profiles will be cold enough.

[Fifty Rock]

Latest NBM true snowfall accumulations through Friday

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/tx/total_snow/1736186400/1736553600-timEm3OVPL0.png

I would take that, puts me right in the sweet spot.

[txtwister78]

GEFS ensemble has Oklahoma and Arkansas in the jackpot zone now for snow. What a difference from a few days ago with that ensemble. Wild shifts as mentioned a day ago with these setups.

[Stratton23]

Yikes North texans yall arent gonna like that GEFS run

[Gotwood]

GEFS ensemble has Oklahoma and Arkansas in the jackpot zone now for snow. What a difference from a few days ago with that ensemble. Wild shifts as mentioned a day ago with these setups.

We are in short range now GFS gets thrown away.

[snownado]

I suppose, worst case, one could do a trip up to Sherman or Gainesville if they're wanting big snows and the latest shifts hold.

[Cpv17]

GEFS ensemble has Oklahoma and Arkansas in the jackpot zone now for snow. What a difference from a few days ago with that ensemble. Wild shifts as mentioned a day ago with these setups.

We are in short range now GFS gets thrown away.

It has a warm bias at this range every time.

[Iceresistance]

GEFS ensemble has Oklahoma and Arkansas in the jackpot zone now for snow. What a difference from a few days ago with that ensemble. Wild shifts as mentioned a day ago with these setups.

It better trend west or I won't get much!

[txtwister78]

GEFS ensemble has Oklahoma and Arkansas in the jackpot zone now for snow. What a difference from a few days ago with that ensemble. Wild shifts as mentioned a day ago with these setups.

We are in short range now GFS gets thrown away.

I hear ya, but shouldn't be ignored considering the large shift at this range in particular. Unfortunately, we're still in a wait and see mode for more of the high-res models as some of those only go out 48hrs. We should have more clarity (thankfully) by tomorrow.

[TropicalTundra]

My high temp here was 41, which was about a degree or two below forecast.

Hi-Res runs are consistent on light precip bands developing over CTX (Austin) early Wednesday morning. Since upper air and surface will likely be freezing or close to it, it might be something to watch with HRRR trends

[Stratton23]

Man thats a monstrous 1059 mb high coming out of canada in the long range GFS, crazy stuff, but shows if we dont all cash in on this system, their may well be more larger opportunities in the future

[Ntxw]

Here comes the 18z Euro, lets see if it stays consistent or we jump ship to the rocking GFS family!

[Ntxw]

One thing to note even on the euro, the trend on it has been to slow the system down the past few cycles of runs. What that means is yet to be seen.

[Iceresistance]

My high temp here was 41, which was about a degree or two below forecast.

Hi-Res runs are consistent on light precip bands developing over CTX (Austin) early Wednesday morning. Since upper air and surface will likely be freezing or close to it, it might be something to watch with HRRR trends

I only got up to 30 today, the low this morning was 12

[Ntxw]

Not seeing a lot of difference from the 18z Euro besides some timing and subtle shifts of transition zone here and there. It's another hit.