Texas Winter 2014-2015

[txprog]

I'm thinking winter of '85-'86 (that's 1985-86). We hit 92 degrees that February...

How about Feb 96? 95 at DFW on the 21st. But.....8 degrees morning of the 4th......

And January 2006? DFW a whopping 10.9 above normal

[dhweather]

I SWEAR to you, there is NO WAY I will pull the ball out for a 23rd consecutive time.

[TheProfessor]

I SWEAR to you, there is NO WAY I will pull the ball out for a 23rd consecutive time.

DHWeather I'm rooting for Lucy on the 23rd but I feel like she is going to Lucy me and give us a snowstorm and prevent me from going to my event.

[gpsnowman]

http://www.citizenofthemonth.com/wp-con ... nklin2.gif
Franklin for the win!!

[Tireman4]

Thats just his shtick. Every single post he makes is crying foul on the models.

If you are talking about Wxman 57, the models are always wrong (cold side), unless they are projecting 90 degree temperatures. Then, they are nails. Even two months out. LOL

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thats just his shtick. Every single post he makes is crying foul on the models.

No he was talking to me.

Not to derail the texas thread as we can take it over to the deep south thread where nobody is to further discuss, but you tell me how well they have worked out this winter. Dont know about you but I sure know I haven't seen one sleet pellet or flake of snow fall out of the sky that they have shown.

[WeatherNewbie]

Thats just his shtick. Every single post he makes is crying foul on the models.

No he was talking to me.

Not to derail the texas thread as we can take it over to the deep south thread where nobody is to further discuss, but you tell me how well they have worked out this winter. Dont know about you but I sure know I haven't seen one sleet pellet or flake of snow fall out of the sky that they have shown.

DFW and Austin have narrowly missed two large ice storms. Let's not act like it has been 55 and sunny the last two weeks. I don't consider 33-34 degrees with QPF around .8-1.2 to be busts... they are within the expected margin of error of a model showing wintery precip and temps in the low 30s.

[Texas Snowman]

Had a dusting of snow in mid-November with big stretch of cold weather. Then sure, most of December wasn't a winter wonderland. But since Christmas, ice in the trees and on the power lines on two occasions. One fatality accident here in my county due to an icy bridge one morning. Lots of days that have been cloudy with temps in the 30s so far this month.

Record breaking winter? No, not so far. But certainly no stroll in the park during a stretch of sunny chamber of commerce beach weather either. At my house, plenty of firewood has already been burned.

At least here in North Texas.

[Ntxw]

The storms have been lacking, the models have in general overdone them so far. I can understand the frustration in the southeastern states you guys have to deal with the southeast ridge and until the AO decides to work then it will be much of the same there. Texas cold works a little different we benefit from the EPO more and depend less on the NAO. But over in LA/MS/AL MIKE is right it hasn't been anything to stop for compared over here in Texas. We just need one good gulf storm, that'll make everyone happy all will be forgiven!

Maybe we can get the Euro ENS to work out and dive that PV anomaly into the lakes and suppress the storm track!

[Stormnut]

Cyclone Mike-

I just think you are looking at models the wrong way. They shouldn't be taken as absolute even if they show something (snow) for a couple runs. When they have shown that only to later take it away we have had cold rain instead of snow. Models are all about showing trends and I think they done a pretty good job with that. We've just missed by a little on temps.

When I see snow in the deep south on models I take away from it: " ok we have a shot coming up at colder weather with precip in the area, let's see what happens"
Models cant tell us exactly where winter weather will happen 2 weeks out but they can tell us what kind of pattern we are looking at usually.

[Ralph's Weather]

Cyclone Mike-

I just think you are looking at models the wrong way. They shouldn't be taken as absolute even if they show something (snow) for a couple runs. When they have shown that only to later take it away we have had cold rain instead of snow. Models are all about showing trends and I think they done a pretty good job with that. We've just missed by a little on temps.

When I see snow in the deep south on models I take away from it: " ok we have a shot coming up at colder weather with precip in the area, let's see what happens"
Models cant tell us exactly where winter weather will happen 2 weeks out but they can tell us what kind of pattern we are looking at usually.

Exactly, models are a great tool to use as part of making a forecast, but they have to be taken for what they are which is a computer simulation of what may happen in the future based on a set of initial conditions and algorithms to predict future conditions.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Nah I know how to read them, just don't give them a second thought, 2-3 days or ensembles 2-3 weeks out. Now summer around here in July and August yes I believe them cause its always hot and dry so it's pretty easy to get that right. Except of course all the cat 5's in the gulf hitting new Orleans.


And thanks ntxw you know exactly what I'm saying.

Now back to winter weather

[Ralph's Weather]

Nah I know how to read them, just don't give them a second thought, 2-3 days or ensembles 2-3 weeks out. Now summer around here in July and August yes I believe them cause its always hot and dry so it's pretty easy to get that right. Except of course all the cat 5's in the gulf hitting new Orleans.


And thanks ntxw you know exactly what I'm saying.

Now back to winter weather

For my area the models have seemed to have done very well this winter.

[somethingfunny]

I'm watching.... I'm not very enthusiastic with the snow cover melting north of us this week, but it looks suspiciously familiar on the models that's for sure (and by familiar I mean it looks like previous years' winter storms rather than previous weeks' busts) ... Does anyone know what our soil temperature would be looking like after 3 cold weeks and then this upcoming warm week?

Regarding the avatar bets from a few pages ago.... the last time I bet an avatar over a forecast, I ended up being forced into loudly proclaiming my "love" for Justin Bieber.

[Big O]

I don't usually post another person's views verbatim, but wxmx (American Weather Forums) is a well-respected amateur with a great deal of weather knowledge and insight, especially involving Texas, Mexico and the Southern Plains. Here are his afternoon thoughts posted on Thursday (1/15/15):

"It all depends where the west coast ridging sets up shop, and how it evolves from that.

The op GFS has been showing for most of it's runs a classic W Canada coast to W US coast ridge. That setup would favor Canadian polar air to build south. It also favors a positive tilted trough from Hudson Bay/Great Lakes southwestward to N MX. This setup is usually very progressive, cold and allows for mid/upper level disturbances to travel near/along the base of the trough. Since the source of cold air wouldn't be that cold, as it's after a period of milder temps along S Canada and most of the CONUS, this would probably benefit the very Nern portion of our region to the central plains. Because of the progressive nature of this setup, it would probably evolve into an eastern CONUS trough, with coolish, but not quite frigid conditions for the Sern Plains...a classic +PNA setup.

The GFS ensembles mostly support the op GFS, but they have the mean ridge a bit farther north the W Canada coast. GGEM and it's ensembles are somewhat similar to the GFS ensembles.

The Euro, OTOH, has this strong ridging even further north the coast in the means, closer to the Canada/AK border. The source of air mass is colder in this setup (arctic air), and longer lasting. The 0z Euro is even further north, fully into Alaska, lowering significantly into negative territory for the EPO. The 12z Euro is midway it's older run and the GFS ensembles, but with stronger ridging. Also, it shows a positive trough, with a storm in it's base, and a more persistent pattern, with the trough not progressing east as fast as the GFS. The Euro ensembles are more in lock with the -EPO setup, and then evolving into a west coast ridge.

That last setup (persistent -EPO, evolving into a West Coast/western third ridge, with a positive tilted trough) is usually the coldest setup for the southern portions of our region...the extreme version of this setup is called the McFarland signature (just a few evolve into McFarland's). Usually we get some very interesting events from this setup. It usually needs time to simmer (establish cross polar flow, and then establish a pattern that would shepherd that cold south effectively), and usually there are several bouts of arctic air masses intrusions, each one colder than the prior, before the pattern changes.

So, to recapitulate:

The GFS has near neutral EPO, with Canadian cold seeping down, and then migrating the trough position east in a +PNA pattern. It's ensembles have a more negative EPO, but not a well established cross polar flow. Also, these ensembles are colder, with a more negative EPO prior to the 12z run.

The Euro is more much aggressive with the negative EPO, effectively establishing cross polar flow, with a more stable central CONUS trough, which favors more arctic air intrusions. Also, it features very strong W Coast ridging, so it features a very healthy positive trough that would affect the Sern Plains to Nern MX with wintry precipitation. It's ensembles mostly support the op run, although the ridging is further NW, over AK.

The op GGEM is similar to the GFS, while the ensembles are more closely related to the Euro and it's ensembles.

Interesting times after day 7."

[Ralph's Weather]

Last night really bottomed out. By 8 PM it fell into the 30s and it is now in the mid 20s.

[Portastorm]

It appears both the GFS and Euro (op and ensembles) show the bulk of the cold air next week going into the Eastern half of the CONUS. And thank goodness! Aren't you all tired of this cold air? I'd take sunny and 75 if I could.

[Montgomery]

29 at KAUS. Just sayin

[Ralph's Weather]

29 at KAUS. Just sayin

Yep, it looks like KAUS hit 29 this morning.

[hriverajr]

And that means? :p