Texas Winter 2018-2019

[rwfromkansas]

NWS FWD shows chance of flurries over DFW in new map, so that’s good.

Just need it to be colder like earlier runs to get actual accumulation. Scary it’s warming so much. It seems to be a trend from multiple runs now.

[Tireman4]

This caught my eye:

Be prepared for
the colder temperatures and windy conditions, but keep in mind,
this forecast could still have additional modifications.


000
FXUS64 KHGX 161147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Wed Jan 16 2019

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings prevail this morning but a continued increase in low
level moisture beneath a capping inversion and the development of
a coastal trough will yield showers today with a transition to
IFR/LIFR cigs later today. LIFR/IFR cigs expected overnight with
areas of fog and drizzle accompanying the lower cigs. Some
improvement expected after 12z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST Wed Jan 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Stratus cloud deck prevailed across the region with drizzle to
light rain over the southwestern counties of Jackson, Matagorda,
and Wharton overnight. Some very light passing showers moved
through portions of the coastal areas from time to time. No
significant accumulation was observed with this rainfall.

Warm air advection pattern and southerly winds will continue
into Friday which will rise temperatures during the next few days
and increase moisture transport over the local area. High
temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with low
temperatures staying in the mid to upper 50s. High temperatures
on Thursday and Friday will rise up to the 70s and lows will range
in the mid 50s to low 60 Thursday night and Friday night. A
surface low pressure will continue to move southeastward further
enhancing surface moisture and increasing shower activity today
through Thursday morning. Most of the rainfall amounts however
should remain below a quarter of an inch...the coastal regions
and Gulf waters could experience slightly higher amounts but
should be less than half an inch.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage and
intensity Friday into Saturday as warm air advection increases
Friday evening and strong upper level trough moves through SE TX
Friday night through Saturday morning. Some strong storms with
periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds is expected to develop
ahead and along the frontal boundary. PWAT values continue to
range between 1.00 to 1.60 inches during this period. Associated
cold front is expected to pass through Saturday brining in much
colder air over the area. Although the new temperature trend is
now slightly warmer than the ones from past few days, low
temperatures still dip down into the upper 20s North of I-10 and
into the low to mid 30s South of I-10 Saturday and Sunday night.
Winds are expected to increase in the wake of the cold front, thus
apparent temperatures north of I-10 still drop down at or below
20s and in the low to mid 20s south of I-10. High temperatures
should be between the mid to upper 40s on Sunday. Be prepared for
the colder temperatures and windy conditions, but keep in mind,
this forecast could still have additional modifications.

A dry air mass will prevail across the local area Sunday and
Monday with southerly flow returning Monday and temperatures
gradually rising through Tuesday. The next cold front could move
across SE TX Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE...

The pressure gradient will begin to tighten today as low pressure
develops over the TX panhandle and SE winds will strengthen. The
moderate onshore flow will bring deeper moisture into the coastal
waters and there is some potential for sea fog Thursday night-Friday
night. The increasing onshore flow will also boost tide levels by
early Friday but water levels will remain critical thresholds.
SCEC/SCA flags may be needed Fri night in advance of a very strong
arctic cold front. Sustained NW winds will reach 30 knots in the
wake of the front. Wind gusts on Saturday night may exceed gale
force at times. An SCA or Gale Watch may be required Saturday night
into early Sunday. The strong offshore wind may push water away from
the coast and a Low Water Advisory may also be needed Sat night into
Sunday. Onshore winds will return late Sunday night as high
pressure pushes east of the region. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 60 55 72 55 73 / 30 30 10 10 40
Houston (IAH) 61 56 72 57 72 / 40 50 20 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 61 58 66 59 67 / 50 50 30 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...43

[bubba hotep]

06z FV3, at least the models are generating more fantasy maps to look at than last winter lol

[losf1981]

The models can’t even get the temps right mere hours out. Every high in the last few days has been colder than shown or forecasted.

especially for our area Yukon.

[Portastorm]

I thought the forecasters at NWSFO Austin/San Antonio had a nice forecast discussion this morning and an explanation for why the models have trended warmer with the projected temps for this weekend. Perhaps our loss down here is DFW's gain with possible "snow" ... maybe?!

The associated cold front from this system was in recent forecasts,
expected to bring some of the coldest air of the season, but the
model trends are warming with a deeper and farther south track of the
upper low creating some separation from the cold air transport
generated by meridional flow aloft over central Canada. Whereas most
areas were expecting to see a hard freeze for a few forecast cycles,
it now looks as if most areas will be facing light freezes in the
wake for Sunday and Monday mornings.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW this morning

I have re-introduced low chances for
a brief transition to a wintry mix across the northeast counties,
with snow flurries from DFW north and west. No travel impacts or
accumulations of any winter weather is advertised at this point,
especially with temperatures during this time frame remaining just
above freezing for areas north of I-20. That said, it definitely
bears stronger investigation through the end of the week. This
will be especially the case if this system continues to track even
further south and slow down.

This the case in 2010, the storm slowed down, was deeper and temps dropped to 30-31 degrees.....12.5" of snow fell

Loved this part...lol

As a reminder, it`s social media is starting to light up with
worse-case model winter weather scenarios regarding post-arctic
front precipitation along and north of I-20. We ask you to be wary
of such posts and to use only trusted weather sources, such as
your favorite media outlets, National Weather Service, or
established private meteorologists regarding the uncertainty
associated with the forecast on Saturday. Don`t always believe
what you see on social media.

To sum it up

Otherwise, due to the depth and density of this arctic airmass, I
leaned toward colder guidance for the post-frontal regime Sunday
into Monday. Highs Sunday will likely struggle to make it out of
the 30s, or lower 40s despite the plentiful sunshine. Insolation
tends to not have the same affects on a dense arctic airmass as it
does other post-frontal airmasses, especially this time of the
year and with such low sun zenith angles. Despite remaining cooler
on Monday, a continued erosion of the arctic airmass should allow
highs to rebound into the mid 40s northeast and mid 50s west.
Increasing warm advection and moisture in advance of our next cold
front the middle of next week will allow lows to stay well above
freezing Tuesday morning with highs rebounding through the 50s to
even some lower 60s across Central Texas. Some low chances for
showers will exist as well Tuesday east of I-35, as moisture
advection ramps up in advance of yet another mid-level system.

[dhweather]

It's 10 days out, so it is likely wrong, but that's cross-polar flow.

[dhweather]

The 0Z and 06Z GFS are significantly warmer than previous runs. They reek of glancing blows, the vast majority of cold goes to the Midwest. Now I see why there's backtracking by various NWS offices.

[harp]

The 0Z and 06Z GFS are significantly warmer than previous runs. They reek of glancing blows, the vast majority of cold goes to the Midwest. Now I see why there's backtracking by various NWS offices.

Yep. Lucy pulled the football away again.

[orangeblood]

The 0Z and 06Z GFS are significantly warmer than previous runs. They reek of glancing blows, the vast majority of cold goes to the Midwest. Now I see why there's backtracking by various NWS offices.

So believe models when they show warmth but not cold...got it!!

[CaptinCrunch]

The 0Z and 06Z GFS are significantly warmer than previous runs. They reek of glancing blows, the vast majority of cold goes to the Midwest. Now I see why there's backtracking by various NWS offices.

Yep. Lucy pulled the football away again.

The football hasn't even been tee'd up yet, we are still watching the pre-game show

Speaking of Football, temps in KS still showing mid to upper teens for Sunday and sunny. All the snow is forecasted for Friday night and Saturday

[spencer817]

The 0Z and 06Z GFS are significantly warmer than previous runs. They reek of glancing blows, the vast majority of cold goes to the Midwest. Now I see why there's backtracking by various NWS offices.

So believe models when they show warmth but not cold...got it!!

One op run=exactly what's going to happen!

[Cerlin]

The 0Z and 06Z GFS are significantly warmer than previous runs. They reek of glancing blows, the vast majority of cold goes to the Midwest. Now I see why there's backtracking by various NWS offices.

So believe models when they show warmth but not cold...got it!!

One op run=exactly what's going to happen!

This is also the *long-range* warm-biased GFS we’re talking about!

That being said, the NAM doesn’t have DFW going below freezing by Sunday...that can’t be a good trend right?

[wxman57]

Was just commenting to "South Texas Storms" (he's sitting right next to me) that the GFS doesn't bring any Arctic air south out of Canada at all. There's no high center coming down the Plains this weekend. It's a Pacific storm system that brings a little colder air southward into Texas on Sunday. Heck, not even a freeze in Dallas according to the 12Z GFS (likely too warm). I mentioned that I always say to "look at the source" (of the cold air). Where is the cold air now? Surface temps in British Columbia and Alberta (SW Canada) are all above zero. Nothing really cold up there. I see a cold front moving through Texas on Saturday, but it's not Arctic air.

Might have a better shot at colder air next Wednesday, as some models are indicating.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Was just commenting to "South Texas Storms" (he's sitting right next to me) that the GFS doesn't bring any Arctic air south out of Canada at all. There's no high center coming down the Plains this weekend. It's a Pacific storm system that brings a little colder air southward into Texas on Sunday. Heck, not even a freeze in Dallas according to the 12Z GFS (likely too warm). I mentioned that I always say to "look at the source" (of the cold air). Where is the cold air now? Surface temps in British Columbia and Alberta (SW Canada) are all above zero. Nothing really cold up there. I see a cold front moving through Texas on Saturday, but it's not Arctic air.

Might have a better shot at colder air next Wednesday, as some models are indicating.

Yeah even i was surprised on the temps coming into this weekend since its coming from the Pacific.

Moving forward, im seeing the models move the PV back over Hudson bay @ 144 (sweet spot.) This isnt the case in previous runs. Good sign moving forward.

[Haris]

Now the gfs has a strong front next week. Watch it pull it too by Sunday LOL. Just kidding. Wouldn’t shock me though given what happened with this first one. We shall see. Fingers crossed. We also need a storm system. Why is it so hard to get a simple light snowfall !

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Now the gfs has a strong front next week. Watch it pull it too by Sunday LOL. Just kidding. Wouldn’t shock me though given what happened with this first one. We shall see. Fingers crossed. We also need a storm system. Why is it so hard to get a simple light snowfall !

Wait for the HeatMiser spin

[gpsnowman]

This is crazy. We go from potential snow flurries and temps in the 20's and 30's to a pacific front with not much cold air in a matter of hours. My head hurts.

[CaptinCrunch]

This is crazy. We go from potential snow flurries and temps in the 20's and 30's to a pacific front with not much cold air in a matter of hours. My head hurts.

Don't let the Heat Miser mess with your head, our NWS office is still on board with the cold for NTX. I'm building a wall in Waco to keep the cold up here and let south Texas melt into the GOM.

[gpsnowman]

This is crazy. We go from potential snow flurries and temps in the 20's and 30's to a pacific front with not much cold air in a matter of hours. My head hurts.

Don't let the Heat Miser mess with your head, our NWS office is still on board with the cold for NTX. I'm building a wall in Waco to keep the cold up here and let south Texas melt into the GOM.

Thanks CaptainCrunch. The lack of snow is having a negative impact on my well being. Seriously, it is like a drug addict without a way to get a fix. I need help.