Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Brent]

If it makes y'all feel better I know people back east in higher elevation who have seen less snow than me it's been rough all around. I mean we did always say third year Nina was a wildcard...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Numerous robins are already back from migrating in fall. Winter cancel

[captainbarbossa19]

This place is getting depressing….

here let me help...just kidding. gotta exorcise some demons to bring on the cold in feb

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1610224525580374016

Interestingly, my area in Southeast Texas ended up close to average precipitation amounts for the year after the horrible deficit last summer. Ground is very saturated here right now and you can't do much work outside right now without the ground squishing. I suspect this year will likely better wetter than last year. Usually drier years are followed by wetter years. La Nina can't continue forever either.

[Cpv17]

Numerous robins are already back from migrating in fall. Winter cancel

Yeah it’s not looking pretty. Idk what Larry Cosgrove is seeing.

[Cpv17]

This place is getting depressing….

here let me help...just kidding. gotta exorcise some demons to bring on the cold in feb

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1610224525580374016

Interestingly, my area in Southeast Texas ended up close to average precipitation amounts for the year after the horrible deficit last summer. Ground is very saturated here right now and you can't do much work outside right now without the ground squishing. I suspect this year will likely better wetter than last year. Usually drier years are followed by wetter years. La Nina can't continue forever either.

I’m thinking it’s gonna take a lil longer for the La Niña to go away than originally expected. Trade winds are still screaming out there and the SOI is crazy positive. The La Niña doesn’t want to budge.

[gpsnowman]

Well after 2 decent winters maybe we are due for a dud. But I am definitely not giving up on winter in early January. Tomorrows 61 is going to feel frigid!!

[Quixotic]

Y’all are panicking.

[harp]

It’s January 3rd. Y’all can’t honestly believe winter is over?? C’mon!! Sheesh!!

[Texas Snowman]

Yup!

I went back and pulled some comments from the Texas Winter 2020-21 thread. There were plenty more than these and I’m not identifying anyone here, just pointing out there was discouragement and despair every few model runs. Winter’s over kind of stuff. Heat Miser even said at one point, well, at least most of you got snow this winter.

When were these posts made? From about Jan. 17 through Feb. 4. I think we all remember what happened a few days later, one of the most historic winter weather events in Texas history.

Not saying anything like that will happen in 2023, but y’all, it’s only JANUARY 3rd!!! The roller coaster ride isn’t even close to being done.

—————
—————
“I'm definitely feeling a little less positive about this setup this morning.
——-
“Steve McCauleys latest is quite depressing.”
——
“Don’t know how many of y’all subscribe to Larry Cosgrove’s newsletter but his latest edition builds (what seems to me at least) a solid case for a big pattern change at the end of the month. Much colder and stormier pattern for east of the Rockies.”
——-
“I’m not a subscriber but the Ensembles don’t look like they’re giving that indication...this is an incredibly ugly chart for the start to February. Cold will be bottled up in Alaska/NW Canada if this chart is even close to reality. Just no indication of a mechanism to push cold south across the southern US attm.”
——-
“Not too long ago, a week or so, I was pretty pumped about the last 2/3 of Feb into March pattern but things are not evolving in the way I had expected. Maybe models shift in our favor over the next week or so?”
——-
“500mb pattern in the 12Z GFS & Canadian does not look suitable for extended extreme cold in TX.”

[Ntxw]

I will say this to see the analog set right now in a very potent Nino North Pacific look, despite the +SOI is a telling sign. Might be a hint a decoupling of the Nina. I know it's not what we want in our backyards but it isn't warm because it is nina-ing. Rather because the North Pacific is firehouse Nino-ing. Why California is seeing so much rain. Pacific jet is resembling a couple of the super Nino events (briefly) that are known torch patterns despite El Nino.

[harp]

:uarrow: Yup!

I went back and pulled some comments from the Texas Winter 2020-21 thread. There were plenty more than these and I’m not identifying anyone here, just pointing out there was discouragement and despair every few model runs. Winter’s over kind of stuff. Heat Miser even said at one point, well, at least most of you got snow this winter.

When were these posts made? From about Jan. 17 through Feb. 4. I think we all remember what happened a few days later, one of the most historic winter weather events in Texas history.

Not saying anything like that will happen in 2023, but y’all, it’s only JANUARY 3rd!!! The roller coaster ride isn’t even close to being done.

—————
—————
“I'm definitely feeling a little less positive about this setup this morning.
——-
“Steve McCauleys latest is quite depressing.”
——
“Don’t know how many of y’all subscribe to Larry Cosgrove’s newsletter but his latest edition builds (what seems to me at least) a solid case for a big pattern change at the end of the month. Much colder and stormier pattern for east of the Rockies.”
——-
“I’m not a subscriber but the Ensembles don’t look like they’re giving that indication...this is an incredibly ugly chart for the start to February. Cold will be bottled up in Alaska/NW Canada if this chart is even close to reality. Just no indication of a mechanism to push cold south across the southern US attm.”
——-
“Not too long ago, a week or so, I was pretty pumped about the last 2/3 of Feb into March pattern but things are not evolving in the way I had expected. Maybe models shift in our favor over the next week or so?”
——-
“500mb pattern in the 12Z GFS & Canadian does not look suitable for extended extreme cold in TX.”

Hmmm, looks like Cosgrove was right back then! By the way, excellent post!

[harp]

You guys ever heard of the Lezak Recurring Cycle? (LRC)

[dpep4]

Could be worse. You could be living in California:

https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/powerful-storms-flooding-not-over-yet-for-san-francisco-bay-area/

The Bay Area office of the National Weather Service did not mince words about the approaching atmospheric river, warning it could have catastrophic impacts across the region.

"To put it simply, this will likely be one of the most impactful systems on a widespread scale that this meteorologist has seen in a long while," the statement read. "The impacts will include widespread flooding, roads washing out, hillside collapsing, trees down (potentially full groves), widespread power outages, immediate disruption to commerce, and the worst of all, likely loss of human life. This is truly a brutal system that we are looking at and needs to be taken seriously."

[Brent]

Could be worse. You could be living in California:

https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/powerful-storms-flooding-not-over-yet-for-san-francisco-bay-area/

The Bay Area office of the National Weather Service did not mince words about the approaching atmospheric river, warning it could have catastrophic impacts across the region.

"To put it simply, this will likely be one of the most impactful systems on a widespread scale that this meteorologist has seen in a long while," the statement read. "The impacts will include widespread flooding, roads washing out, hillside collapsing, trees down (potentially full groves), widespread power outages, immediate disruption to commerce, and the worst of all, likely loss of human life. This is truly a brutal system that we are looking at and needs to be taken seriously."

So Texas isn't the only place that goes from extreme drought to historic flood

[Ptarmigan]

Meanwhile, we can all enjoy well above-normal temperatures for the next couple of weeks. Yesterday's low was 71 in Houston. Great winter weather!

The warm weather gives way to cold weather.

[Ptarmigan]

The European Torch is insane, Belarus broke the National Record for the Hottest January Temperature ever!

Cali Sierra snowfall is even crazier….models going to 400 plus inches of snow over next 2 weeks. On top of the already record snow base they have. Something truly historic is happening out there right now…

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/california/total_snow_kuchera/1672682400/1674064800-2tIGutvOduI.png

That is a lot of snow right there!

[bubba hotep]

I will say this to see the analog set right now in a very potent Nino North Pacific look, despite the +SOI is a telling sign. Might be a hint a decoupling of the Nina. I know it's not what we want in our backyards but it isn't warm because it is nina-ing. Rather because the North Pacific is firehouse Nino-ing. Why California is seeing so much rain. Pacific jet is resembling a couple of the super Nino events (briefly) that are known torch patterns despite El Nino.

https://i.imgur.com/T2EFs7U.png

I was playing wth some analogs today with the thinking that we might need to chunk the Nina thinking and look towards Nino. Longer range points towards a pretty wet pattern across Texas with seasonal to slightly above normal temps. Remember, our Nino winter storms don't have bone chilling cold but just enough to make it work with the dynamics.

[rwfromkansas]

You guys ever heard of the Lezak Recurring Cycle? (LRC)

I have followed him for awhile. I think there is some truth in it, just skeptical of the whole thing being exactly the same.

[harp]

You guys ever heard of the Lezak Recurring Cycle? (LRC)

I have followed him for awhile. I think there is some truth in it, just skeptical of the whole thing being exactly the same.

We have a local meteorologist here that I’ve been on forums with since he was a teen. He and Gary Lezak have done videos explaining how these cycles work. It’s actually fascinating. Our guy here has been doing these monthly LRC calendars for a while now. It’s amazing how accurate it has been and he absolutely nailed December. This month shows late January returning to cold with gulf lows. We shall see.

[IcyTundra]

The LRC is intriguing but I'm still very skeptical of it. Is there any peer reviewed research published on it I would be interested in reading up on it.