Texas Winter 2021-2022

[cheezyWXguy]

12z gfs shows the trough digging way deeper off the west coast through hour 102. This could be a big run

[txtwister78]

Man the ICON continues to be stubborn with the trough hanging back, give it that at least it is consistent.

Very consistent…would be one for the ages!

...and the 12Z ICON backs away from the Texas winter weather. Just a trace in the D-FW area late next week. Light freeze for Houston. Models do indicate 1-2" of rain along the mid to upper TX coast Monday, though.

Still a lot of ice in that run though.

[wxman57]

Still a lot of ice in that run though.

The dark blue color is just a trace. Like the last couple of events.

[South Texas Storms]

Man the ICON continues to be stubborn with the trough hanging back, give it that at least it is consistent.

Very consistent…would be one for the ages!

...and the 12Z ICON backs away from the Texas winter weather. Just a trace in the D-FW area late next week. Light freeze for Houston. Models do indicate 1-2" of rain along the mid to upper TX coast Monday, though.

It did? I see a lot of ice in the run, even getting into southeast TX on Thursday morning. You need to look at the projected temperatures with the precip. The ICON doesn't specifically show freezing rain/sleet on Tropical Tidbits. Just rain/snow.

The 12z GFS holds more energy back now and shows rain changing to snow/ice over the northern half of the state next Thursday morning.

[DonWrk]

Still a lot of ice in that run though.

The dark blue color is just a trace. Like the last couple of events.

All of that precip is falling with temps in upper 20s or am I not reading that right?

[Brent]

Still a lot of ice in that run though.

The dark blue color is just a trace. Like the last couple of events.

All of that precip is falling with temps in upper 20s or am I not reading that right?

That's a lot more precip than last week

Assuming the Icon is correct anyway

[Ralph's Weather]

ICON shows NE TX getting around 1" QPF after temps drop below freezing. At face value that's a ton of ice though I'd expect more to fall as snow than it is depicting.

[orangeblood]

Still a lot of ice in that run though.

The dark blue color is just a trace. Like the last couple of events.

Huh? This is the 24hr precip output once DFW goes to freezing at midnight Wednesday night according ICON...this is MAJOR ICE STORM criteria

[txtwister78]

Still a lot of ice in that run though.

The dark blue color is just a trace. Like the last couple of events.

For snow yes agreed....but ICON doesn't show ice (sleet or freezing rain) in any of its model outputs and with surface temps across C/N/W TX well below freezing at the same time precip is falling? Still a pretty good icing event if it were to verify.

[txtwister78]

GFS matches ICON...slower and a little deeper with the trough.

[wxman57]

Still a lot of ice in that run though.

The dark blue color is just a trace. Like the last couple of events.

Huh? This is the 24hr precip output once DFW goes to freezing at midnight Wednesday night according ICON...this is MAJOR ICE STORM criteria

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/precip_24hr_inch/1643371200/1643954400-mTxrjcIXGlw.png

I don't subscribe to weatherbell. That map is a total precip map, which includes rainfall. Looks like a line of thunderstorms may precede any sub-freezing weather. Most of that precip cold be rain changing to freezing rain and sleet. Snow map on TT indicates a trace. No sleet/freezing rain map available. Pivotal Weather doesn't appear to have the ICON model.

[Ntxw]

Probably a lot of what the ICON shows is sleet also. Wish we had more parameters on it. GFS isn't that far off, in reality you'd like it's temperature profiles more. Nevertheless qpf continues to increase incrementally and makes more sense give the entrance nature of the jet involved. We're probably staring down potentially major winter storm for at least the northern half of the state and likely involving more once we get into range.

[txtwister78]

Probably a lot of what the ICON shows is sleet also. Wish we had more parameters on it. GFS isn't that far off, in reality you'd like it's temperature profiles more. Nevertheless qpf continues to increase incrementally and makes more sense give the entrance nature of the jet involved. We're probably staring down potentially major winter storm for at least the northern half of the state and likely involving more once we get into range.

Agreed due to the convective returns we're seeing on some of its runs. Regardless it's been pretty consistent and quite bullish on precip still several days out. Now it has some company in the GFS.

[Texas Snow]

Without even getting into the precipitation depictions, really like the trends of last couple runs.

[Ralph's Weather]

This storm has huge potential. I am less certain about the I-35 corridor getting the heavy precip, the pattern has been so dry lately there. Areas east of I-45 should have no problem getting heavy precip though. If this storm really digs though western areas could join the party like shown on recent runs. 0.5 to 2+ inch qpf with surface in the 20s would have severe impacts. Way too early to identify warm noses to determine precip types, but it looks like most will see the full suite of precip types with this. Heck eastern areas may see severe storms ahead of the front Wed so may add hail to the precip suite.
I fully expect additional waves to follow next weekend and into the following week. Those would likely have a better chance to be pure snow for northern portions of the state as the cold will be solidly in place and deep at that point.
The cold will be intense where snow falls with single digits and a few sub zero reading possible. Doubt we see widespread sub zero like last year, hopefully not at least.

[wxman57]

Can we all agree on just ONE thing? That would be a high of 85-90F next Friday would be much more enjoyable than what the models are indicating (high of upper 30s in Houston and about 18 in D-FW)? Come on! Who's with me on that?

[orangeblood]

The dark blue color is just a trace. Like the last couple of events.

Huh? This is the 24hr precip output once DFW goes to freezing at midnight Wednesday night according ICON...this is MAJOR ICE STORM criteria

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/precip_24hr_inch/1643371200/1643954400-mTxrjcIXGlw.png

I don't subscribe to weatherbell. That map is a total precip map, which includes rainfall. Looks like a line of thunderstorms may precede any sub-freezing weather. Most of that precip cold be rain changing to freezing rain and sleet. Snow map on TT indicates a trace. No sleet/freezing rain map available. Pivotal Weather doesn't appear to have the ICON model.

it's a 24hr precip map (not Total) starting when DFW gets to Freezing at Midnight on Wednesday....over 1 inch QPF at 32F or below, imagine a freezing rain to sleet to snow

[Iceresistance]

Probably a lot of what the ICON shows is sleet also. Wish we had more parameters on it. GFS isn't that far off, in reality you'd like it's temperature profiles more. Nevertheless qpf continues to increase incrementally and makes more sense give the entrance nature of the jet involved. We're probably staring down potentially major winter storm for at least the northern half of the state and likely involving more once we get into range.

Agreed due to the convective returns we're seeing on some of its runs. Regardless it's been pretty consistent and quite bullish on precip still several days out. Now it has some company in the GFS.

WeatherNerds has Rain/Ice/Sleet/Snow parameters for ICON

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/icon.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=Rain-Snow_Radar&initcycle=determine&initfhour=063&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=630&initrange=55.000000000000:230.000000000000:20.000000000000:300.000000000000&initcx1=700&initcy1=144&initcx2=964&initcy2=410&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=695&initsoundy=139&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=180&initlint=3&initol1=Rain-Snow_Radar&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On&initunits=On&initlatlon=Off

Has Ice as far south as Houston & Victoria.

[wxman22]

12Z ICON showing a major ice storm all the way to the coast.And the GFS is finally showing a storm taking shape.

[cheezyWXguy]

Probably a lot of what the ICON shows is sleet also. Wish we had more parameters on it. GFS isn't that far off, in reality you'd like it's temperature profiles more. Nevertheless qpf continues to increase incrementally and makes more sense give the entrance nature of the jet involved. We're probably staring down potentially major winter storm for at least the northern half of the state and likely involving more once we get into range.

Agreed due to the convective returns we're seeing on some of its runs. Regardless it's been pretty consistent and quite bullish on precip still several days out. Now it has some company in the GFS.

WeatherNerds has Rain/Ice/Sleet/Snow parameters for ICON

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/icon.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=Rain-Snow_Radar&initcycle=determine&initfhour=063&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=630&initrange=55.000000000000:230.000000000000:20.000000000000:300.000000000000&initcx1=700&initcy1=144&initcx2=964&initcy2=410&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=695&initsoundy=139&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=180&initlint=3&initol1=Rain-Snow_Radar&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On&initunits=On&initlatlon=Off

Has Ice as far south as Houston & Victoria.

Thanks for posting this. Clearly shows nearly the entire state getting frozen precip