Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

HRRR has a low of 7F tonight at DFW, 4F in Mckinney

NBC 5 showed a low of 17 at DFW in the morning. I said to myself that seems way too high. It's already low 20's and the sun has yet to set. And with clearing forecasted overnight, look out below.

The thing that might prevent it from going that low is the wind. But still, I don't think I've ever seen a model show that less than 24 hours out...

[Ntxw]

GFS still showing a potential storm system 15th +/- with some cold air around

[TexasBreeze]

GFS shows 22 for Iah and 20 for Hooks it has been a long long time...

[Ntxw]

Looking at what's happening in the southeast, I'm kind of happy it was really cold and we got high ratio snows. it's a nailbiter watching 32F but warmer air aloft and just watching the slow transition if it ever occurs...

Also Brownsville is now predicted to go below freezing. McFarland signature anyone? They are sitting at 36F now

[Brent]

Looking at what's happening in the southeast, I'm kind of happy it was really cold and we got high ratio snows. it's a nailbiter watching 32F but warmer air aloft and just watching the slow transition if it ever occurs...

yeah it's still raining at my parents house in Alabama... oh I'd be so pissed off if I was there. Shades of the 2011 storm which we missed by 50 miles. There's nothing I hate more than wasting precip.

and a few days ago the GFS clown snow map had 6-10" of snow there...

[Hurricane_Apu]

Down here in Lafayette we had intermittent rain and mid 30's most of the day which gradually mixed with sleet and then changed over to sleet and freezing rain. There's now a light coating of ice on cars and elevated surfaces, but the precip appears to be over except maybe some spotty drizzle or flurries. We are currently under a Winter Weather Advisory (which actually verified). Nothing too exciting, but more than I'd expected... the first (albeit very minor) accumulating winter precip we've had here since March of 2014.

[Ntxw]

Skies are clear here now and the wind has died down a lot the past hour. Moon, stars, and snow below...why couldn't this have been two weeks sooner?

[Texas Snowman]

Skies are clear here now and the wind has died down a lot the past hour. Moon, stars, and snow below...why couldn't this have been two weeks sooner?

Yup, it's fun now. But it would have been epic on Christmas Eve and/or Christmas Day.

[Ntxw]

Skies are clear here now and the wind has died down a lot the past hour. Moon, stars, and snow below...why couldn't this have been two weeks sooner?

Yup, it's fun now. But it would have been epic on Christmas Eve and/or Christmas Day.

It ends the January snow drought at least. 2011 was the last time there was measurable snow (2013 Jan was thundersleet). You'd have to go back to Jan 2002 for significant snow. The rest was ice/sleet combo. We've seen more snow in March than Jan since 2000.

[lrak]

I'm cold and my Chihuahua Chloe is cold too, NW CC has 50% humidity and me in the city down stream of the bays is at about 70% so I'm thinking with the wind so high that NW Corpus may freeze but the inland city along the bay may hit 32 degrees for an hour or two i guess. I still can't believe that in my 20s I'd be surfing in a 5 mm suite and loving it, now I'm enjoying the freedom of becoming patient and waiting for the perfect days. Love that http://c0rk.blogs.com/c0rkm0b/05272004_6.jpg enjoy it while the fireplace warms one side of the house... A few pages back I read a few post about lake affect snow in N TX, duh...can you have semi salt water affect snow?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

HRRR has 29 for us in Sugar Land 30 at midnight, GFS has 23 and 25 at midnight. Huge difference. We shall see. Currently dead on 32.

[CentralTxAggie]

26 degrees here, near 1626 and S. First; DP 15

[Golf7070]

Hi guys. I got 2.1 inches in jonesboro AR. Very fast moving system. Ntxw, what are your thoughts on pattern moving forward? I heard the mjo is entering warmer phases with Goa vortex taking over. Do u expect that to last long? Also, I heard about a potential wave 2 response with stratosphere. Thanks kevin

[Ntxw]

Hi guys. I got 2.1 inches in jonesboro AR. Very fast moving system. Ntxw, what are your thoughts on pattern moving forward? I heard the mjo is entering warmer phases with Goa vortex taking over. Do u expect that to last long? Also, I heard about a potential wave 2 response with stratosphere. Thanks kevin

It may be a stormy/wet and milder pattern overall through Jan 20th. Behind any deepening storm could be a quick shot of cold air. Next week bears watch but nothing definitive at the moment. The raised heights near Atlantic Canada and eastern Canada will slow the Pacific jet down once it enters western North America. Kind of El Ninoish and the usual winter cold snaps vs the arctic attacks we have seen, at least for the next 2 weeks.

And congrats on your snow!!!

[bubba hotep]

Temps in my area have been following the HRRR pretty closely and we are down to 15F. The HRRR gets us down to 7F and it appears that FWD is buying the single digit low possibility and has issued a Hard Freeze Warning.

[bubba hotep]

Updated lows from FWD

[Ntxw]

Been one heck of an arctic blast. Forecasts have had to play catch up all day. HRRR is initializing the airport a little too cold, winds still preventing the hard fall, but the northern counties is verifying. Winds there almost calm

[bubba hotep]

Been one heck of an arctic blast. Forecasts have had to play catch up all day. HRRR is initializing the airport a little too cold, winds still preventing the hard fall, but the northern counties is verifying. Winds there almost calm

As expected with that huge -EPO. I'm glad we were able to squeeze out some snow with this one. It looks like the models are trending to a bit more of a progressive pattern and not holding that big cutoff low in place off the Pacific NW for days on end like before.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of not holding big cutoff lows in place, next weekend is looking more interesting on the GFS. S/W is coming in faster with arctic air coming down. Big high up north, low pressures south.

-30s in the northern Midwest

[Snowman67]

Been one heck of an arctic blast. Forecasts have had to play catch up all day. HRRR is initializing the airport a little too cold, winds still preventing the hard fall, but the northern counties is verifying. Winds there almost calm

They have had to change my forecasted low again. 25F currently and forecasted to go to 23. I'm thinking they will have to lower it again as skies have cleared.