Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

I smell a mega bust coming for North texas

Yeah it's not there yet but it's trending that direction. Going to be some very interesting forecast discussions tomorrow morning. But again this is the sort of thing I was beating the drum over when these models a few days ago were going crazy with snowfall totals (Euro prime example).

Absent real arctic cold in place (modified) and a system that at that time hadn't even been sampled and then you add the development of a coastal low in tandem, just too many potential red flags to feel confident. It appears those red flags are showing up in a big way now the closer we get. Not the trend you want to see except decent rainfall for areas that need it. Like South Texas Storms as much as I hate cold rain, I'm going to hold that thought Thursday because we need every drop down here.

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS looks like a traditional North Texas winter storm. It starts out as rain, then mix, and then ends with snow. Totals depend on how fast the transition occurs. That fits climo for North Texas.

[Stratton23]

Quixotic lol what? Im not hoping for anything, ive seen many times where events like this crumble at the last second, a bust is certainly possible

[Iceresistance]

CMC doesn't phase since the other trough left!


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcdC.gif

[Iceresistance]

Sleet to ice in DFW on 0z CMC, ouch

[Cpv17]

Personally, I think y’all are getting too caught up in the globals. It’s mesoscale time.

[Iceresistance]

OUCH

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcdO.png

[snownado]

Personally, I think y’all are getting too caught up in the globals. It’s mesoscale time.

Your optimism is commendable...

[bubba hotep]

Personally, I think y’all are getting too caught up in the globals. It’s mesoscale time.

I would 100% agree if we were fretting over temp profiles. However, 500mb trends are the root of these changes, and the globals are going to handle that better.

[Gotwood]

I smell a mega bust coming for North texas

Yeah it's not there yet but it's trending that direction. Going to be some very interesting forecast discussions tomorrow morning. But again this is the sort of thing I was beating the drum over when these models a few days ago were going crazy with snowfall totals (Euro prime example).

Absent real arctic cold in place (modified) and a system that at that time hadn't even been sampled and then you add the development of a coastal low in tandem, just too many potential red flags to feel confident. It appears those red flags are showing up in a big way now the closer we get. Not the trend you want to see except decent rainfall for areas that need it. Like South Texas Storms as much as I hate cold rain, I'm going to hold that thought Thursday because we need every drop down here.

Not sure what you consider “arctic” air but in Texas this is very much so arctic air. Dew points near 0.

[Iceresistance]

Had your hopes up only to be crushed

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXcls.gif

[Gotwood]

Personally, I think y’all are getting too caught up in the globals. It’s mesoscale time.

Happens every single time. So many dynamics to pick up on.

[bubba hotep]

After looking at soundings, I think this isn't too far off. A lot of what Pivotal is showing at Sleet is debatable.

[Texas Snow]

Had your hopes up only to be crushed
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXcls.gif
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXcls.gif

Dude, just stop

[Iceresistance]

Had your hopes up only to be crushed
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXcls.gif
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXcls.gif

Dude, just stop

Sorry about the modelspam

[TropicalTundra]

A light precip band is moving over to the metroplex. Maybe like 5-10 mins of baby flurries. The problem is it’s probably going to dry out by then

[txtwister78]

I smell a mega bust coming for North texas

Yeah it's not there yet but it's trending that direction. Going to be some very interesting forecast discussions tomorrow morning. But again this is the sort of thing I was beating the drum over when these models a few days ago were going crazy with snowfall totals (Euro prime example).

Absent real arctic cold in place (modified) and a system that at that time hadn't even been sampled and then you add the development of a coastal low in tandem, just too many potential red flags to feel confident. It appears those red flags are showing up in a big way now the closer we get. Not the trend you want to see except decent rainfall for areas that need it. Like South Texas Storms as much as I hate cold rain, I'm going to hold that thought Thursday because we need every drop down here.

Not sure what you consider “arctic” air but in Texas this is very much so arctic air. Dew points near 0.

Uhhh...that alone doesn't equate to arctic air my friend. You can have low dewpoints following pacific fronts and, in the spring, following drylines? Ask west Texas (lol) So not sure your point on that. My point was this is not the type of cold weather setup that lends high confidence in these particular events that are strictly upper level driven. A much colder airmass in place and we're talking about a crippling ice storm for example. Thankfully that's not happening.

[Iceresistance]

GEFS has really downtrended with the snow, which is just sad

[Ntxw]

After looking at soundings, I think this isn't too far off. A lot of what Pivotal is showing at Sleet is debatable.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2025010700/090/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Yeah over the years I've learned sounding forecasts are a better method if you can read them. The models don't output snow, ice, etc only qpf and temps. It's the site/middle source algorithm to best guess it.

[SnowintheFalls]

It is even looking marginal up on the Red River. What time does the Euro run?