Texas Winter 2020-2021

[wxman22]

Canadian has joined the GFS in saying "what front?" Canadian ensembles are calling the operational Canadian run an idiot. I now have full control of the operational Canadian. Working on the other models now. GFS operational said "no way, here it comes!". GFS ensembles say "what front?" GFS ensembles are 15-20F warmer than operational. Less ice on Canadian, but GFS freezing rain shifted to the coast.

I added the Canadian ensembles (blue dashed line):
http://wxman57.com/images/Models12ZFeb7.JPG

Considerably less freezing rain with the Canadian:
http://wxman57.com/images/CanadianZR12ZFeb7.JPG

Freezing rain shifted south to the coast with the 12Z GFS:
http://wxman57.com/images/GFSZR12ZFeb7.JPG

Keep in mind that the Euro trended colder across the Southern Plains, but not in Houston. The SE Ridge is Key for any chances for winter weather across the Southern Plains.

Not that it matters this far out but the Euro did trend colder for Houston its actually 10+ degrees colder across the board.

[Portastorm]

The Euro ENS and its Control are definitely more bullish on the cold.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612699200/1613239200-66oYagJxl4g.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612699200/1613239200-sG6HceoVbkY.png

I feel kinda dumb for asking but what’s the control run? That’s not the operational?

The ECMWF Control run is basically the ECMWF (Euro) model.

That’s not accurate. The control run is a lower resolution version of operational run. The difference in grid points between the two can mean a substantial difference between the control run and operational run. Wxman57 alludes to this in his response.

[Iceresistance]

I feel kinda dumb for asking but what’s the control run? That’s not the operational?

The ECMWF Control run is basically the ECMWF (Euro) model.

That’s not accurate. The control run is a lower resolution version of operational run. The difference in grid points between the two can mean a substantial difference between the control run and operational run. Wxman57 alludes to this in his response.

Oh, I see now. I never knew that Control Model runs existed.

[Ralph's Weather]

So what in particular is it about this setup that is wreaking so much havoc in the models? I know the models have been known to be inconsistent but swings this drastic seem beyond crazy to me.

I think a lot of it is models struggle with highly anomalous patterns.

I agree and this pattern is somewhat anomalous! Also I don't think I have ever seen the models get a good grip, at least in the Southern plains, on severe cold(very dense air)and how it "flows".

Yes models seems to struggle to resolve how Arctic air masses flow down the gentle slope of the Plains when highs are centered over the Central Plains.

[Iceresistance]

18z ICON still trending COLDER!

[Cpv17]

The ECMWF Control run is basically the ECMWF (Euro) model.

That’s not accurate. The control run is a lower resolution version of operational run. The difference in grid points between the two can mean a substantial difference between the control run and operational run. Wxman57 alludes to this in his response.

Oh, I see now. I never knew that Control Model runs existed.

I kinda thought the control run was always the operational but I wasn’t sure.

[Iceresistance]

Big Temperature bust in Central Oklahoma may cause the front to be even more stronger & more winter weather.

36°F in OKC (Forecasted to be 40°F)
34°F in Shawnee & in town. (Forecasted to be 43°F)

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS trending A LOT warmer

PV stalls to the North, but will strengthen.

[orangeblood]

And there it is, the inevitable...18Z GFS caving towards Euro, PV regression closing off direct push into Southern Plains. All Hail King Euro!!

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS folds.

[Brent]

18z GFS folds.

I am just shocked lol

[HockeyTx82]

Thread over, who wants to start the Spring thread.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like 12z GFS was a fluke. 18z now has the Saturday ice storm breaking out in Oklahoma versus the gulf coast. Temperatures running 25 degrees warmer down to I-10. It was a nice week of teasing in the models but I'm throwing in the towel on any sort of big event down here .

[Brent]

Thread over, who wants to start the Spring thread.

Honestly I never wanted arctic air anyway if it wasnt going to snow lol

[Iceresistance]

Thread over, who wants to start the Spring thread.

Not until March/April!

GFS is still wanting a polar blast, but it's delayed.

[HockeyTx82]

Thread over, who wants to start the Spring thread.

Not until March/April!

GFS is still wanting a polar blast, but it's delayed.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_us_28.png

And it will continue to do so and push it off. Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result. We've all gone insane as have the models.

[HockeyTx82]

Thread over, who wants to start the Spring thread.

Not until March/April!

GFS is still wanting a polar blast, but it's delayed.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_us_28.png

And it will continue to do so and push it off. Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result. We've all gone insane as have the models.

And I doubled posted. Sorry

[Cpv17]

Thread over, who wants to start the Spring thread.

Not until March/April!

GFS is still wanting a polar blast, but it's delayed.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_us_28.png

It’s always delayed lol if it’s not within 3 days don’t even bother with it.

[Texas Snow]

Another delay lol but Polar comes through DFW with sleet Sunday morning and a massive Monday snowstorm (statewide winter weather)

Let’s do this one

[bubba hotep]

I'm not sure what there is left to analyze... Each time it looks like the cold is coming, it doesn't. So just go with the warmer of the model runs.