Texas Winter 2021-2022

[txtwister78]

Euro does leave some energy behind which it's notorious for doing... but something to watch Friday perhaps if cold can linger. Tries to cutoff a low

[orangeblood]

Euro does leave some energy behind which it's notorious for doing... but something to watch Friday perhaps if cold can linger. Tries to cutoff a low

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/z500_anom/1643371200/1643997600-H8msJhXUvbc.png

That piece of energy is what's shearing apart the energy at the base of the Longwave trough swinging through...probably biggest difference b/w GFS. Overall, really good trends this morning!

[wxman57]

Here are days 1-10 for Houston & D-FW. I think February 2 looks barely acceptable for February. Beyond then, not so much.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFSJan28.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFSJan28.JPG

Are you gassing up the jet or are still in wait and see mode?

Not yet, but I told my pilot to make sure he's available, if necessary. I have one suggestion for any of you who thinks he/she may need more pipe insulation - do it before social media declare the end of the world is coming again. I purchased my supplies 9 days before last February's big freeze. I don't need anything for another freeze, as my six 5-gallon Home Depot buckets and 5 1-gal buckets are standing by, along with my faucet coverings. Generator has fresh oil and gas was evacuated after its use last February. Having a transfer switch installed after Ike was a big help last year. Just plugged the generator into the power main. Can even run the heater with it, as it's gas and only needs a blower to run. But I'm getting ahead of myself. I'm sure the GFS will prove to be wrong. Temperatures will most likely be in the 80s around the 7th/8th, right?

[WinterMax]

Yes, I’d like to know that as well. You have several members over here in south Louisiana. Any response would be appreciated!

Model output so far, verbatim, suggests an outcome similar to last February... significant cold but mitigated by a strong SE ridge and not as severe as what happens in Texas.

Last year that was the difference between a once in 15-20 years event (LA) and a once in 50+ years event (TX). This year's event likely won't be as severe overall, but the west to east gradient will be similar.

Some good thoughts. The PNA is changing from positive to slightly negative at the front of February so it will favor a Lakes cutter and west of the MS River cold at first. Really the Great Plains benefit the most from such a pattern. Northern LA may sit decent, the surface cold will try to press though. So definitely like last year, but I'd even compare it more to Superbowl week 2011.

Thanks man, now as far as it happening, i take it monday or tuesday we will see if we can lock it in?

[Brent]

The Euro sucks here. Hopefully it doesn't verify because I'm not gonna be happy with another basically dusting. Thankfully it's day 5

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Here are days 1-10 for Houston & D-FW. I think February 2 looks barely acceptable for February. Beyond then, not so much.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFSJan28.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFSJan28.JPG

Are you gassing up the jet or are still in wait and see mode?

Not yet, but I told my pilot to make sure he's available, if necessary. I have one suggestion for any of you who thinks he/she may need more pipe insulation - do it before social media declare the end of the world is coming again. I purchased my supplies 9 days before last February's big freeze. I don't need anything for another freeze, as my six 5-gallon Home Depot buckets and 5 1-gal buckets are standing by, along with my faucet coverings. Generator has fresh oil and gas was evacuated after its use last February. Having a transfer switch installed after Ike was a big help last year. Just plugged the generator into the power main. Can even run the heater with it, as it's gas and only needs a blower to run. But I'm getting ahead of myself. I'm sure the GFS will prove to be wrong. Temperatures will most likely be in the 80s around the 7th/8th, right?

You might wanna book that flight.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Model output so far, verbatim, suggests an outcome similar to last February... significant cold but mitigated by a strong SE ridge and not as severe as what happens in Texas.

Last year that was the difference between a once in 15-20 years event (LA) and a once in 50+ years event (TX). This year's event likely won't be as severe overall, but the west to east gradient will be similar.

Some good thoughts. The PNA is changing from positive to slightly negative at the front of February so it will favor a Lakes cutter and west of the MS River cold at first. Really the Great Plains benefit the most from such a pattern. Northern LA may sit decent, the surface cold will try to press though. So definitely like last year, but I'd even compare it more to Superbowl week 2011.

Thanks man, now as far as it happening, i take it monday or tuesday we will see if we can lock it in?

Yeah, Sunday/Monday is my day to feel a lot more confident.

[rwfromkansas]

I don't like the fact the Euro isn't on board, so not too confident yet. It all could go away. But, some hopeful signs. I think Sunday will be helpful for us to know more probability on how this will really go, nothing/in the middle/big event.

I haven't been able to post during the morning, but I did notice the CMC from earlier has a band in northern DFW that while it says is sleet/freezing rain, in my experience from KS at least, that northern swath is typically sleet changing to snow. Not sure if that holds true further south, but I would be inclined to expect more actual snow with that.

[Texas Snow]

Here are days 1-10 for Houston & D-FW. I think February 2 looks barely acceptable for February. Beyond then, not so much.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFSJan28.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFSJan28.JPG

Are you gassing up the jet or are still in wait and see mode?

Not yet, but I told my pilot to make sure he's available, if necessary. I have one suggestion for any of you who thinks he/she may need more pipe insulation - do it before social media declare the end of the world is coming again. I purchased my supplies 9 days before last February's big freeze. I don't need anything for another freeze, as my six 5-gallon Home Depot buckets and 5 1-gal buckets are standing by, along with my faucet coverings. Generator has fresh oil and gas was evacuated after its use last February. Having a transfer switch installed after Ike was a big help last year. Just plugged the generator into the power main. Can even run the heater with it, as it's gas and only needs a blower to run. But I'm getting ahead of myself. I'm sure the GFS will prove to be wrong. Temperatures will most likely be in the 80s around the 7th/8th, right?

We filled up all our spare gas cans already and can go a 2-3 days easy.

Our generator isn’t enough for a whole home, but I did learn after last February that the blower for the furnace is only 120v. Even though we have a gas furnace, we froze our asses off for days because of the blower.

I found this simple switch that I installed by the furnace (for ease of me installing just that line as opposed to by panel) that I can just plug an extension cord into and and now heat the house when the power grid is out to levels that would even make you hot.

Maybe this will help someone else: https://ezgeneratorswitch.com/

[bubba hotep]

Pretty big positive changes on 12z Euro EPS.

[wxman57]

We filled up all our spare gas cans already and can go a 2-3 days easy.

Our generator isn’t enough for a whole home, but I did learn after last February that the blower for the furnace is only 120v. We froze our asses off for days though we had gas because of the blower.

I found this simple switch that I installed by the furnace (for ease of me installing just that line as opposed to by panel) that I can just plug an extension cord into and and now heat the house when the power grid is out to levels that would even make you hot.

https://ezgeneratorswitch.com/

By the way, I'm not concerned about next week (Thu/Fri), it's the event at day 11 which is beyond the Canadian & EC. EC does have colder air across Texas at 240 hrs than the GFS, though.

[Texas Snow]

We filled up all our spare gas cans already and can go a 2-3 days easy.

Our generator isn’t enough for a whole home, but I did learn after last February that the blower for the furnace is only 120v. We froze our asses off for days though we had gas because of the blower.

I found this simple switch that I installed by the furnace (for ease of me installing just that line as opposed to by panel) that I can just plug an extension cord into and and now heat the house when the power grid is out to levels that would even make you hot.

https://ezgeneratorswitch.com/

By the way, I'm not concerned about next week (Thu/Fri), it's the event at day 11 which is beyond the Canadian & EC. EC does have colder air across Texas at 240 hrs than the GFS, though.

I am just preparing in case any of these ice scenarios play out and take down power lines. Not the cold so much.

Otherwise put Stabil in the unused gas and it will last for a long time

[WinterMax]

Here are days 1-10 for Houston & D-FW. I think February 2 looks barely acceptable for February. Beyond then, not so much.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFSJan28.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFSJan28.JPG

Are you gassing up the jet or are still in wait and see mode?

Not yet, but I told my pilot to make sure he's available, if necessary. I have one suggestion for any of you who thinks he/she may need more pipe insulation - do it before social media declare the end of the world is coming again. I purchased my supplies 9 days before last February's big freeze. I don't need anything for another freeze, as my six 5-gallon Home Depot buckets and 5 1-gal buckets are standing by, along with my faucet coverings. Generator has fresh oil and gas was evacuated after its use last February. Having a transfer switch installed after Ike was a big help last year. Just plugged the generator into the power main. Can even run the heater with it, as it's gas and only needs a blower to run. But I'm getting ahead of myself. I'm sure the GFS will prove to be wrong. Temperatures will most likely be in the 80s around the 7th/8th, right?

I'm learning to read between the lines with Mr. 57. The fact that you are giving winter home prep advice, would imply that this Arctic event is a definite possibility for next weekend. That was pretty easy Lol.

All BS aside, every time we have possible winter weather, I read all of the posts here, but I pay particular attention to yours because you seem to bring everyone back down to earth, and lower my expectations. I would rather be pleasantly surprised than build my expectations way up, only to be disappointed later. I'll be watching your posts closely and I won't say anything to my family and friends until I see you have bought in.

[Haris]

Pretty big positive changes on 12z Euro EPS.

EPS have that low agreement between El Paso and Del Rio. Much better than the op. which is near CO springs

[Iceresistance]

Pretty big positive changes on 12z Euro EPS.

EPS have that low agreement between El Paso and Del Rio. Much better than the op. which is near CO springs

If the ULL is over Western Texas, I may get a ridiculous amount of snow by the storm system, that's one of the reasons why KWTV-News 9 is not putting out the snowfall forecasts yet.

[Brent]

Pretty big positive changes on 12z Euro EPS.

EPS have that low agreement between El Paso and Del Rio. Much better than the op. which is near CO springs

If the ULL is over Western Texas, I may get a ridiculous amount of snow by the storm system, that's one of the reasons why KWTV-News 9 is not putting out the snowfall forecasts yet.

I hope so because I'm not gonna be happy if this trends towards another flizzard. We've already had that several times. Time for a real snowstorm already

[wxman57]

I'm learning to read between the lines with Mr. 57. The fact that you are giving winter home prep advice, would imply that this Arctic event is a definite possibility for next weekend. That was pretty easy Lol.

All BS aside, every time we have possible winter weather, I read all of the posts here, but I pay particular attention to yours because you seem to bring everyone back down to earth, and lower my expectations. I would rather be pleasantly surprised than build my expectations way up, only to be disappointed later. I'll be watching your posts closely and I won't say anything to my family and friends until I see you have bought in.

Come to think of it, it was Friday, February 5th, 2021 when I made a similar post about a possible hard freeze Monday, February 15th. I'm not ready to believe the GFS temps yet, I'm just warning you all that people will absolutely panic once something is posted to social media about a Texas hard freeze and ice storm. You won't be able to find any supplies if you want until we're sure of any freeze event. Get your TP now.

By tomorrow's 12Z model runs, the potential event will be at the end of the Canadian & ECMWF. It won't be until the 12Z Sunday runs when it'll be well within all the global models.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm learning to read between the lines with Mr. 57. The fact that you are giving winter home prep advice, would imply that this Arctic event is a definite possibility for next weekend. That was pretty easy Lol.

All BS aside, every time we have possible winter weather, I read all of the posts here, but I pay particular attention to yours because you seem to bring everyone back down to earth, and lower my expectations. I would rather be pleasantly surprised than build my expectations way up, only to be disappointed later. I'll be watching your posts closely and I won't say anything to my family and friends until I see you have bought in.

Come to think of it, it was Friday, February 5th, 2021 when I made a similar post about a possible hard freeze Monday, February 15th. I'm not ready to believe the GFS temps yet, I'm just warning you all that people will absolutely panic once something is posted to social media about a Texas hard freeze and ice storm. You won't be able to find any supplies if you want until we're sure of any freeze event. Get your TP now.

By tomorrow's 12Z model runs, the potential event will be at the end of the Canadian & ECMWF. It won't be until the 12Z Sunday runs when it'll be well within all the global models.

Yep, no reason to get excited until late Sunday-Monday. I do think you’re underestimating this upcoming weeks event. Definitely a higher impact event in North Texas, but Thursday night could surprise here, especially at my place in Montgomery.

The script flips on the second system where North Texas would see more marginal impacts and SE TX could see more significant ones. That whole time period looks much colder with a round 3 slipping into Montana.

Overall, February looks cold outside of a one day warm up here and there.

[wxman57]

I encourage y'all to go to Tropical Tidbits and look at the 2m temperature anomaly at 240 hrs with the GFS. Now switch to the same time for the ECMWF & Canadian. Notice the difference? No cold air heading for TX in either the Canadian or the European models. Some cold is already here in Texas in both, but no big shot of cold on the way. GFS is the outlier. Heck, the 12Z EC is 30+ degrees warmer than the GFS with the air up to the Canadian border at 240 hrs.

Here, I'll post a comparison for day 10. EC on top, GFS on bottom. The air in Montana is 45+ degrees warmer in the Euro. I think I know the problem. The GFS model does not have my wall height properly configured into the initialization.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECvsGFS.JPG

[txtwister78]

I encourage y'all to go to Tropical Tidbits and look at the 2m temperature anomaly at 240 hrs with the GFS. Now switch to the same time for the ECMWF & Canadian. Notice the difference? No cold air heading for TX in either the Canadian or the European models. Some cold is already here in Texas in both, but no big shot of cold on the way. GFS is the outlier. Heck, the 12Z EC is 30+ degrees warmer than the GFS with the air up to the Canadian border at 240 hrs.

Here, I'll post a comparison for day 10. EC on top, GFS on bottom. The air in Montana is 45+ degrees warmer in the Euro. I think I know the problem. The GFS model does not have my wall height properly configured into the initialization.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECvsGFS.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/ECvsGFS.JPG

GFS may be an outlier in the long range, but it was definitely the first I do believe to see the potential for a cold outbreak next wk. That alone of course doesn't make it right, but in my opinion the Euro has never really been a model that can "see" colder air in the long term anyway. Just seems like we're back to the "is it wise to go beyond a 5 to 7-day window" for predicting what any given model will do when it's clear we are seeing what a few days can do to the pattern (next wk potential). So, on that front, I just think you take these one at a time rather than trying to decipher patterns/models more than 7 days out. My .02