Texas Winter 2022-2023

[orangeblood]

CFSv2 is even more dug in now that the East Pacific, off the west coast pattern will flip 180. The next outbreak will be centered West US-Central US with a stout SE ridge.

GEFS now in range and going towards it...showing the Pacific rubber band snap in day 14-15, great call!!!

[EnnisTx]

Has anyone talked about the potential of a SSW?

NOT A SOLE......

[Ntxw]

CFSv2 is even more dug in now that the East Pacific, off the west coast pattern will flip 180. The next outbreak will be centered West US-Central US with a stout SE ridge.

GEFS now in range and going towards it...showing the Pacific rubber band snap in day 14-15, great call!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1673006400/1674388800-Y44TybDyRvU.png

GEFS 0z cycles are produced to 35 day lead times. While I don't suggest using this for point forecasts, its trends can be treated like euro weeklies. around ~25th it has consistently been showing this change. So as the 16 day (300+ hr) reaches this time frame it will show increasing ridging off the coast.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1611456379440472071

[Brent]

Well our TV met did say no cold air...for now

[Ntxw]

12z EPS shuts off the Pacific storm train. What happens here is the Asian jet is retracted and deep low retreating to Ohkotsk region. What this will do is eventually pump up that ridge in the EPAC ridge. Might see some impressive ridging show up once in closer range (still very far out and just looking at means.)

[Iceresistance]

Well our TV met did say no cold air...for now

Did he literally say "for now"?

Mine recently said "Maybe Late January into February".

[Itryatgolf]

12z EPS shuts off the Pacific storm train. What happens here is the Asian jet is retracted and deep low retreating to Ohkotsk region. What this will do is eventually pump up that ridge in the EPAC ridge. Might see some impressive ridging show up once in closer range (still very far out and just looking at means.)

Ntxw, do you think that is related to the mjo on the move or something else? We have to try and get Canada cold again before we can even think about down here but definitely can't happen with screaming pacific jet imo

[Ntxw]

12z EPS shuts off the Pacific storm train. What happens here is the Asian jet is retracted and deep low retreating to Ohkotsk region. What this will do is eventually pump up that ridge in the EPAC ridge. Might see some impressive ridging show up once in closer range (still very far out and just looking at means.)

Ntxw, do you think that is related to the mjo on the move or something else? We have to try and get Canada cold again before we can even think about down here but definitely can't happen with screaming pacific jet imo

If you look at the forecast maps, ridging is pumping up into the arctic via Siberia/Northwest Pacific by the huge Okhotsk dump of cold. This ridging feature sends the TPV to the Davis straits setting up cold over the western hemisphere. This before the Pacific wave-break, in time the warming of the strat will only buckle the pattern to allow stronger ridging up into Alaska and and the Arctic. The MJO is incoherent.

Right now the TPV is split with the Asian one dominant but it will evacuate southward and seesaw back to Canada as the dominant one. Models are pretty insistent on the latest runs.

[Itryatgolf]

12z EPS shuts off the Pacific storm train. What happens here is the Asian jet is retracted and deep low retreating to Ohkotsk region. What this will do is eventually pump up that ridge in the EPAC ridge. Might see some impressive ridging show up once in closer range (still very far out and just looking at means.)

Ntxw, do you think that is related to the mjo on the move or something else? We have to try and get Canada cold again before we can even think about down here but definitely can't happen with screaming pacific jet imo

If you look at the forecast maps, ridging is pumping up into the arctic via Siberia/Northwest Pacific by the huge Okhotsk dump of cold. This ridging feature sends the TPV to the Davis straits setting up cold over the western hemisphere. This before the Pacific wave-break, in time the warming of the strat will only buckle the pattern to allow stronger ridging up into Alaska and and the Arctic. The MJO is incoherent.

Right now the TPV is split with the Asian one dominant but it will evacuate southward and seesaw back to Canada as the dominate one. Models are pretty insistent on the latest runs.

The ssw chart from euro ensembles is posted every 3 days. The 10mb wind zonal chart. Dr. Cohen posted it yesterday. It was close to ssw on that run yesterday. Really too far out to speculate. SSW events are tricky as you know

[Ntxw]

The ssw chart from euro ensembles is posted every 3 days. The 10mb wind zonal chart. Dr. Cohen posted it yesterday. It was close to ssw on that run yesterday. Really too far out to speculate. SSW events are tricky as you know

Being a bottom up first event I don't see the SSW as a cause, but rather symptom. The stratPV was already weak early winter, it strengthened as it should through climo but is attacked again because the troposphere has been favoring blocking and disrupting the upper PV. Whether we get an SSW to me is irrelevant, but the fact warming is happening via disruption from below is telling there is no ++AO to end winter. La Nina + +AO is easy game over, but that isn't happening. The difference between 2011-2012 type Nina or 2020-2021 is this.

[Itryatgolf]

I also saw a chart on twitter and another reason I think the jet may retract is because the AAM is trending more neutral and typically when it's positive it acts more like a El Niño, which it has lately. Anyway to get a colder pattern east of the rockies I would like to see it happen

[Quixotic]

Bottom line: disrupt the SPV. Who cares if it’s forcing or atmospheric. I am on board with others with how surprised I am with how weak it was in December with how it’s bottling things up now.

[Iceresistance]

Monthly SOI is now at +20, the La Niña is back with a vengeance.

[Cpv17]

Both the EPS and GEFS are looking much better after the 20th.

[Ntxw]

Both the EPS and GEFS are looking much better after the 20th.

25th through 1st week of February is when the -EPO could really unload, interested in this period. It's such a hard flip on the most of the guidance. Could also see the strat activity extend this for a longer duration than what we saw in December.

[Iceresistance]

Both the EPS and GEFS are looking much better after the 20th.

25th through 1st week of February is when the -EPO could really unload, interested in this period. It's such a hard flip on the most of the guidance. Could also see the strat activity extend this for a longer duration than what we saw in December.

The models are still uncertain on the location on where the SPV is displaced, but it appears that it's trending towards Greenland and parts of Canada compared to Western Siberia.

[Ntxw]

Both the EPS and GEFS are looking much better after the 20th.

25th through 1st week of February is when the -EPO could really unload, interested in this period. It's such a hard flip on the most of the guidance. Could also see the strat activity extend this for a longer duration than what we saw in December.

The models are still uncertain on the location on where the SPV is displaced, but it appears that it's trending towards Greenland and parts of Canada compared to Western Siberia.

It should be forming over the Davis-Straits-Hudson Bay. Decaying TPV over Okhotsk Sea and retracted AEJ will allow it to seesaw back to Canada after spending time over Russia during our mild period.

[Iceresistance]

It looks like that the more active pattern will begin to the East in Mid-January, the cold shots will eventually retrograde towards the rockies by Late January and into February.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Both the EPS and GEFS are looking much better after the 20th.

25th through 1st week of February is when the -EPO could really unload, interested in this period. It's such a hard flip on the most of the guidance. Could also see the strat activity extend this for a longer duration than what we saw in December.

I’m be doing my backcountry skiing on the Divide then