Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Snowman67]

:uarrow: Too soon to know. As I have stated, we may not know the 'finer details' other than the Cold Air coming 24-36 hours before hand. I had to refresh my memory a bit today on the December 1989 Arctic Outbreak. The forecast showed the Arctic Air was coming, but the moisture was not mentioned at all until 24 hour prior to that event and then the QPF totals were minimum at best. I suggest we all pay close attention to the NWS and our Pro Mets as we head into the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.

I don't remember the 1989 event too well (was working aviation weather back then), but I do know that the models in 1989 were nothing like what we have now. The long range MRF went out to 120 hrs in 24 hour increments, I believe. No GFS 3 hr forecasts out to 180 hrs then 6 hr forecasts out to 384 hrs.

There is still nothing to indicate any post-frontal disturbance to produce any precip, except for the Canadian which remains all on its own with such a solution.

Here's an 18Z GFS raw data plot I just made for IAH:

If I am reading your chart right (which may be a big "if"), it seems that you do not show IAH going below freezing until somewhere between 6pm-12am on thursday. Isn't that later than what has been predicted by the NWS?

Edit - I should say between 6pm and 9pm Thursday

[jeff]

:uarrow: Too soon to know. As I have stated, we may not know the 'finer details' other than the Cold Air coming 24-36 hours before hand. I had to refresh my memory a bit today on the December 1989 Arctic Outbreak. The forecast showed the Arctic Air was coming, but the moisture was not mentioned at all until 24 hour prior to that event and then the QPF totals were minimum at best. I suggest we all pay close attention to the NWS and our Pro Mets as we head into the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.

I don't remember the 1989 event too well (was working aviation weather back then), but I do know that the models in 1989 were nothing like what we have now. The long range MRF went out to 120 hrs in 24 hour increments, I believe. No GFS 3 hr forecasts out to 180 hrs then 6 hr forecasts out to 384 hrs.

There is still nothing to indicate any post-frontal disturbance to produce any precip, except for the Canadian which remains all on its own with such a solution.

Here's an 18Z GFS raw data plot I just made for IAH:

If I am reading your chart right (which may be a big "if"), it seems that you do not show IAH going below freezing until somewhere between 6pm-12am on thursday. Isn't that later than what has been predicted by the NWS?

Edit - I should say between 6pm and 9pm Thursday

This is what the GFS MODEL is showing...it seems good to me...although I would lean toward closer to 600pm than 900pm. High on Friday may not reach freezing at IAH...if so maybe 33 for an hour or two. By far the coldest air since 1996...although the duration looks longer than 96 with the intensity about the same. Tropical plants have enjoyed over a decade of mild winters...many will bite the dust by Saturday AM

[southerngale]

Meanwhile, it's only 6:30pm and already 33° right now. The temps have been steadily dropping... we have a Hard Freeze Warning for tonight/tomorrow morning.

I just started a fire. I can't seem to stay warm!



Edit at 7:25pm: below freezing at 31° - it's going to be a long time below freezing

[txagwxman]

May have some virga snow showers on Friday across SE TX ahead of that next short-wave...probably evaporate before reaching the ground.
26F tonight Hooks (Tomball).

[jeff]

With the Td depressions it would be really hard to get anything to the surface...air temps in the low to mid 30's and Td's in the lower 10's to 1's. I do not believe I have ever seen a negative Td in this area...could be the first time...for me anyhow.

[Tireman4]

May have some virga snow showers on Friday across SE TX ahead of that next short-wave...probably evaporate before reaching the ground.
26F tonight Hooks (Tomball).

Txagwxman ( and all of the pro-mets...THANK YOU FOR ALL YOU DO. You are a valuable asset here),

Do you think that next week could be interesting in the Houston area? I am hearing rumblings about it.

[txagwxman]

With the Td depressions it would be really hard to get anything to the surface...air temps in the low to mid 30's and Td's in the lower 10's to 1's. I do not believe I have ever seen a negative Td in this area...could be the first time...for me anyhow.

I have seen negative TD's here in Houston...or close to it. I wouldn't be surprised to see something on the radar, but none hit the ground.

[jeff]

May have some virga snow showers on Friday across SE TX ahead of that next short-wave...probably evaporate before reaching the ground.
26F tonight Hooks (Tomball).

Txagwxman ( and all of the pro-mets...THANK YOU FOR ALL YOU DO. You are a valuable asset here),

Do you think that next week could be interesting in the Houston area? I am hearing rumblings about it.

I have not seen anything in the guidance to suggest anything interesting...The arctic ridge may be slower to retreat than guidance shows...and it may still be fairly cold around here into Monday...if it does linger and building moisture in S TX can overrun it I suppose some kind of icing or sleet would be possible...but there is nothing really showing this as of now..

[jeff]

May have some virga snow showers on Friday across SE TX ahead of that next short-wave...probably evaporate before reaching the ground.
26F tonight Hooks (Tomball).

Txagwxman ( and all of the pro-mets...THANK YOU FOR ALL YOU DO. You are a valuable asset here),

Do you think that next week could be interesting in the Houston area? I am hearing rumblings about it.

I have not seen anything in the guidance to suggest anything interesting...The arctic ridge may be slower to retreat than guidance shows...and it may still be fairly cold around here into Monday...if it does linger and building moisture in S TX can overrun it I suppose some kind of icing or sleet would be possible...but there is nothing really showing this as of now..

As 57 said earlier...I would not give up hope of some kind of winter weather event before the season closes. It is only a matter of time with a frequent cold surges and active sub-tropical flow before the two combine to produce an event. I favor ZR over SN as our overruning patterns of late favor more of shallow cold blasts with warm moist air running up and over. Although SN seems to be the new winter precip. type in these parts since 2004...just an observation...not saying we can expect snow every year...ice is much more likely and common

[southerngale]

How depressing. Bitter cold and no snow to go with it.

Thanks to all the pro mets and amateurs who help keep everyone informed, though.... even if it's dream-squashing info.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for chiming in wxman57, jeff and txagwxman. Awesome to have you guys adding your thoughts.

[txagwxman]

May have some virga snow showers on Friday across SE TX ahead of that next short-wave...probably evaporate before reaching the ground.
26F tonight Hooks (Tomball).

Txagwxman ( and all of the pro-mets...THANK YOU FOR ALL YOU DO. You are a valuable asset here),

Do you think that next week could be interesting in the Houston area? I am hearing rumblings about it.

I have not seen anything in the guidance to suggest anything interesting...The arctic ridge may be slower to retreat than guidance shows...and it may still be fairly cold around here into Monday...if it does linger and building moisture in S TX can overrun it I suppose some kind of icing or sleet would be possible...but there is nothing really showing this as of now..

I don't see much yet.

[southerngale]

Txagwxman ( and all of the pro-mets...THANK YOU FOR ALL YOU DO. You are a valuable asset here),

Do you think that next week could be interesting in the Houston area? I am hearing rumblings about it.

I have not seen anything in the guidance to suggest anything interesting...The arctic ridge may be slower to retreat than guidance shows...and it may still be fairly cold around here into Monday...if it does linger and building moisture in S TX can overrun it I suppose some kind of icing or sleet would be possible...but there is nothing really showing this as of now..

As 57 said earlier...I would not give up hope of some kind of winter weather event before the season closes. It is only a matter of time with a frequent cold surges and active sub-tropical flow before the two combine to produce an event. I favor ZR over SN as our overruning patterns of late favor more of shallow cold blasts with warm moist air running up and over. Although SN seems to be the new winter precip. type in these parts since 2004...just an observation...not saying we can expect snow every year...ice is much more likely and common

We can make ice in our kitchens, and it doesn't knock out power lines or cause wrecks. Could you please put an order in that we're much happier with the snow every year? I've never tried to make an iceman, but it sure is fun to make a snowman.

[david30]

We had a nice surprise here in the Hwy 82 corridor in NW MS. After hearing all weekend that the air was too dry for anything we woke up to snow on cars and roofs. Verynice to see something other than rain fall out the sky. Jeff, others what are your thoughts on the potential here for Wed Thurs. Models all over the place. One time showing .25 which would be good for us given the temps. Now not looking to be as much.

[HockeyTx82]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

...ARCTIC OUTBREAK IN PERSPECTIVE...

ARCTIC AIR LATER THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES IN RECENT MEMORY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR MORE THAN 2 DAYS. HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE 20S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Q: WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME IT WAS BELOW FREEZING FOR THIS LONG?

A: JANUARY 2007

AT DFW AIRPORT...THE MERCURY WAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR 85 HOURS
FROM 8 PM ON JANUARY 14 TO 9 AM ON JANUARY 18. AT WACO...THERE WAS A
TOTAL OF 79 HOURS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FROM 2 AM ON JANUARY 15 TO
9 AM ON JANUARY 18. (THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR APPROXIMATELY
60 HOURS BELOW FREEZING THIS WEEK.)

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUBFREEZING WEATHER IN JANUARY
2007...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE WAS 25 DEGREES AT DFW...AND 27
AT WACO.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Q: WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THERE WERE TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS?

A: DECEMBER 2005

MORNING LOWS WERE IN THE TEENS AT BOTH DFW AND WACO ON DECEMBER 8
AND 9. HOWEVER...ON ONLY ONE OF THOSE DAYS (DECEMBER 8) DID DFW HAVE
A HIGH OF FREEZING (32F). AT WACO...THERE WERE NO DAYS THAT REMAINED
AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DALLAS/FORT WORTH...A COLDER EVENT OCCURRED IN DECEMBER 2004.
THE MERCURY FELL BELOW FREEZING THE AFTERNOON OF DECEMBER 22...AND
IT REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE MORNING ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS ON DECEMBER 23 AND 25...
BUT ONLY DIPPED TO 21 DEGREES THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Q: WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THERE WERE TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 20S?

A: DECEMBER 1998

AT DFW AIRPORT...HIGHS WERE IN THE 20S BOTH DECEMBER 22 AND 23...BUT
THE MERCURY NEVER FELL BELOW 20 DEGREES DURING THE EVENT.

FOR WACO...THE MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE WAS JANUARY 12 AND 13 OF 1997.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Q: WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THERE WERE TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S?

A: JANUARY 1997

AT DFW AIRPORT...IT REMAINED BELOW FREEZING FROM LATE ON JANUARY 10
TO THE MORNING OF JANUARY 15. JANUARY 12 AND 13 FEATURED LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S.

(WACO HAS NOT MET SUCH CRITERIA SINCE DECEMBER 1990.)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Q: WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME IT WAS COLDER THAN THIS FORECAST?

A: FEBRUARY 1996

AT DFW AIRPORT...THERE WERE 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS OF 30
DEGREES OR LESS FROM JANUARY 31 TO FEBRUARY 4. ON THE MORNING OF
FEBRUARY 4...THE MERCURY FELL TO 8 DEGREES...THE LAST TIME DFW HAS
BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AT WACO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S FROM JANUARY 31 TO
FEBRUARY 3. THE LOW FOR THE EVENT WAS 12 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 4.
(WACO HAS NOT BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SINCE DECEMBER 1989.)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Q: WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THERE WERE SINGLE DIGITS SOMEWHERE IN
NORTH TEXAS?

A: FEBRUARY 16, 2007

FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING MAY FALL INTO THE LOWER
TEENS. THIS WOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY SINCE FEBRUARY 16, 2007...WHEN
MCKINNEY DROPPED TO 11 DEGREES...AND MULTIPLE LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
DALLAS/FORT WORTH WERE EVEN COLDER.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

[Texas Snowman]

[quote="HockeyTx82"]PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

...ARCTIC OUTBREAK IN PERSPECTIVE...

ARCTIC AIR LATER THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES IN RECENT MEMORY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR MORE THAN 2 DAYS. HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE 20S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

A: FEBRUARY 1996

AT DFW AIRPORT...THERE WERE 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS OF 30
DEGREES OR LESS FROM JANUARY 31 TO FEBRUARY 4. ON THE MORNING OF
FEBRUARY 4...THE MERCURY FELL TO 8 DEGREES...THE LAST TIME DFW HAS
BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

------

Ahh, remember that cold snap in February 1996 so very well. For those of you who are Cowboys fans out there, I believe it struck the day after Dallas beat Pittsburgh to wrap up Super Bowl XXX and its third Super Bowl title in four years!!! Can history repeat itself...in more ways than one?!?

[wxman57]

GFS does predict a fair bit of mid-level moisture on Friday (575mb to 400mb), but it has quite dry air in the lower 5000-7000 ft. So, I agree, could see some snow aloft but not reaching the ground Friday.

[Ntxw]

Virga ugh, only a cold rain is worst!

[southerngale]

GFS does predict a fair bit of mid-level moisture on Friday (575mb to 400mb), but it has quite dry air in the lower 5000-7000 ft. So, I agree, could see some snow aloft but not reaching the ground Friday.

We're still several days out. Hopefully the GFS will start to work that moisture down to the surface, like we watch for a mid-level spin to work its way down to the surface and you have an LLC during Hurricane Season. lol

[Ntxw]

Gfs actually is warmer than previous. I'm starting to question the move to the new Gfs a few weeks back.