Texas Winter 2010-2011

[wxman57]

12Z Euro (and Canadian) are even colder than the 00Z runs. I still don't see much post-frontal moisture, though. And with the front driving well into the southern Gulf by Wednesday, the chances of a coastal low to throw moisture over the cold air are about zero. But the Euro and Canadian do indicate at least a weak disturbance (or two) moving south into Texas later in the week. If that's the case, then we could see passing snow flurries across Texas but no big snow event. And I do not currently see much of a freezing rain threat.

Is this a shallow cold air mass for us in Texas and will it basically dry out the lower column and cause any precip that falls to evaporate even with the weak impulses moving across? based on these models what would your forecast im temps be for the Tyler area during this cold front next week?

It actually appears to be a rather deep cold airmass. I see at least a potential for northeast Texas (Dallas to Tyler) to see close to 10 degrees next week. Of course, I would not forecast such cold this far out. Low-mid 20s would be my forecast for the area, meaning what's most likely to occur. However, the likelihood of much colder temps is increasing.

[southerngale]

I say we auction off wxman57 to the highest bidder. We've hogged his thermal capabilities and snow defense mechanisms far too long. Do I hear any bids? Minnesota? North Dakota? Anyone?

We can use the profits to buy snow gear.

We love wxman57, but geography is not an issue... we can love him from afar.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Update: No change...

12Z MODEL UPDATE...

GFS ESSENTIALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED SYNOPTICALLY FROM ITS EARLIER
RUNS. GEFS MEAN ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH ITS SW US
UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT OTHERWISE HELD STEADY. THE 12Z UKMET
SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF... SHOWING A SHARPER
TROUGH NEAR 96W BY TUE/D6. CANADIAN IS IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS. WILL HOLD THE COURSE FOR NOW AND LEAVE EARLIER FORECAST
UNCHANGED FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.


FRACASSO/ROTH

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro (and Canadian) are even colder than the 00Z runs. I still don't see much post-frontal moisture, though. And with the front driving well into the southern Gulf by Wednesday, the chances of a coastal low to throw moisture over the cold air are about zero. But the Euro and Canadian do indicate at least a weak disturbance (or two) moving south into Texas later in the week. If that's the case, then we could see passing snow flurries across Texas but no big snow event. And I do not currently see much of a freezing rain threat.

As for Houston, if the 12Z Euro or Canadian verify, then we could be looking at the coldest air of the season by a fair bit. Teens for Houston would be possible, though I wouldn't forecast such temps quite yet. Again, I do not buy the GFS solution at all. I think it holds too much energy back.

Farther east along the LA coast, the cold air could be a little colder than you've already seen, but not as dramatically colder as for the TX coast.

So are saying there is a zero chance of a big snow event next week with Gulf moisture ?? If so, looks like you're going with the Euro and Euro only. The Canadian sure shows a big snow event with what appears to be some Pacific moisture getting involved.

[wxman57]

I say we auction off wxman57 to the highest bidder. We've hogged his thermal capabilities and snow defense mechanisms far too long. Do I hear any bids? Minnesota? North Dakota? Anyone?

We can use the profits to buy snow gear.

We love wxman57, but geography is not an issue... we can love him from afar.

I'd prefer to be farther south, perhaps BVI?

[Ivanhater]

Farther east along the LA coast, the cold air could be a little colder than you've already seen, but not as dramatically colder as for the TX coast.

I thought the 12z Euro was even colder for points East of Houston, it seems to get colder the further East you go with the coldest touching down to the MS/AL/FL coast.

Yes, the 12z Euro shows the -12c to -14c line settling toward the North central Gulf coast...shockingly cold

[wxman57]

So are saying there is a zero chance of a big snow event next week with Gulf moisture ?? If so, looks like you're going with the Euro and Euro only. The Canadian sure shows a big snow event with what appears to be some Pacific moisture getting involved.

I certainly wouldn't say zero percent of a significant snow event across Texas next week. But I do think that the chances of such an event are decreasing and the chances of extreme cold, but drier air, are increasing. Drier air would still not preclude the potential for snow flurries, depending upon any weak upper-level disturbance that may track across the cold air.

[Ntxw]

Farther east along the LA coast, the cold air could be a little colder than you've already seen, but not as dramatically colder as for the TX coast.

I thought the 12z Euro was even colder for points East of Houston, it seems to get colder the further East you go with the coldest touching down to the MS/AL/FL coast.

Yes, the 12z Euro shows the -12c to -14c line settling toward the North central Gulf coast...shockingly cold

It doesn't really matter how cold, it's going to be cold everywhere. Still too far out to say how cold where. Euro is mighty cold for the SE coast for sure.

[srainhoutx]

Brownsville buying the GFS solution regarding the moisture...for now...

BASED ON
THE GFS...THE DRY FORECAST WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
AND A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS THE VERY
LARGE UPPER LOW DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN AZ AND
NM. BOTTOM LINE IS IT APPEARS THAT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ALONG WITH
A DECENT CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN IN THE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR BEYOND? THE ONE CAVEAT IS THE EURO IS MARKEDLY
DIFFERENT. IT BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DOES NOT COME INTO PLAY UNTIL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SO...BASICALLY COLDER BUT DRY. AM HEDGING WITH THE GFS BASED ON
CURRENT PATTERN AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST INCLUDE ADJUSTING TEMPS DOWN
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH STILL MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES BEST
PRECIP OPPORTUNITIES FROM THE LATEST GFS RUN. WAVE HEIGHT
FORECASTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED UPWARDS TUE AND WED BASED ON THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH FROPA.

[southerngale]

I say we auction off wxman57 to the highest bidder. We've hogged his thermal capabilities and snow defense mechanisms far too long. Do I hear any bids? Minnesota? North Dakota? Anyone?

We can use the profits to buy snow gear.

We love wxman57, but geography is not an issue... we can love him from afar.

I'd prefer to be farther south, perhaps BVI?

haha - Sounds good, but their bids would likely be lower. They're already warm.

[Tireman4]

I say we auction off wxman57 to the highest bidder. We've hogged his thermal capabilities and snow defense mechanisms far too long. Do I hear any bids? Minnesota? North Dakota? Anyone?

We can use the profits to buy snow gear.

We love wxman57, but geography is not an issue... we can love him from afar.

I'd prefer to be farther south, perhaps BVI?

Grand Cayman!!!!

[orangeblood]

So are saying there is a zero chance of a big snow event next week with Gulf moisture ?? If so, looks like you're going with the Euro and Euro only. The Canadian sure shows a big snow event with what appears to be some Pacific moisture getting involved.

I certainly wouldn't say zero percent of a significant snow event across Texas next week. But I do think that the chances of such an event are decreasing and the chances of extreme cold, but drier air, are increasing. Drier air would still not preclude the potential for snow flurries, depending upon any weak upper-level disturbance that may track across the cold air.

I guess I'm going to have to disagree with you on next weeks storm chances. With the PNA staying positive, the NAO going strong positive, and the Polar Vortex dropping into Hudson Bay, I would think most of the energy coming down the northern jet would more than likely dig into the southern rockies and deepen as it moves across the south central plains. The GFS, UKMET, JMA, and the Canadian all show this scenario in some form or fashion with the Euro being the outlier (too progressive). Very interesting/difficult pattern evolving!!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

The Ukie still is bullish on a decent trough plowing through the Arctic air in the Southern Plains early next week. Looks like 12z run says a winter precip bonanza for north Texas and Oklahoma.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html

[wxman57]

I guess I'm going to have to disagree with you on next weeks storm chances. With the PNA staying positive, the NAO going strong positive, and the Polar Vortex dropping into Hudson Bay, I would think most of the energy coming down the northern jet would more than likely dig into the southern rockies and deepen as it moves across the south central plains. The GFS, UKMET, JMA, and the Canadian all show this scenario in some form or fashion with the Euro being the outlier (too progressive). Very interesting/difficult pattern evolving!!

That's certainly one possibility. But the trend over the past day or two is for those models to move closer to what the Euro is now forecasting. I suspect the end result may be somewhere in between.

[jasons2k]

It doesn't really matter how cold, it's going to be cold everywhere. Still too far out to say how cold where. Euro is mighty cold for the SE coast for sure.

Just keep in mind not everyone who reads these forums is reading for the same reason (hoping for snow, etc.)

How cold matters quite a lot to agricultural interests and gardeners like me who are about tired of hard freezes wreaking havoc on our gulf coast gardens. 15 degrees versus 25 matters a LOT to me.

[Hook'em Horns!]

First time poster here, man..i just love all of the quality discussions from you pros on this site. Been a lurker ever since the called shot on the big winter storm in N. Texas last year. Really cool getting the scoop here before hitting the air waves. I am a snow freak but in the same boat as porta, live in Austin. You can defintely label me a 'wish caster' like the poster with the big red paperclip below his name calls these folks.

Anyways, sure hope a storm rolls through next week and can't wait for all of the updates!

[WacoWx]

No doubt the shag brought you here. GREAT handle!

[amawea]

How cold matters quite a lot to agricultural interests and gardeners like me who are about tired of hard freezes wreaking havoc on our gulf coast gardens. 15 degrees versus 25 matters a LOT to me.

You are preaching to snowaholics here Jasons. You better get the men with the straight jackets to tame these snowaholics.

[Ntxw]

It doesn't really matter how cold, it's going to be cold everywhere. Still too far out to say how cold where. Euro is mighty cold for the SE coast for sure.

Just keep in mind not everyone who reads these forums is reading for the same reason (hoping for snow, etc.)

How cold matters quite a lot to agricultural interests and gardeners like me who are about tired of hard freezes wreaking havoc on our gulf coast gardens. 15 degrees versus 25 matters a LOT to me.

No doubt it does. But at this time we just don't know how cold so for the time being pointing particular temps for any area isn't a good idea. Euro has been shifting back and forth on location. Regardless it will get colder, just not important at this time to say for certain how much .

Speaking of the JMA it is really suppressed. In the words of Frank Strait, Texas 'Snow Blitz'.

[downsouthman1]

Seems as though FW NWS likes to chase the models that show the least amount of disruption.