Texas Winter 2020-2021

[orangeblood]

I'm not sure what there is left to analyze... Each time it looks like the cold is coming, it doesn't. So just go with the warmer of the model runs.

Truly maddening and extremely defeating, akin to analyzing the Stock Market based on fundamentals!

[Rgv20]

From low 40s to mid 70s on the GFS for Saturday

[Yukon Cornelius]

Wait for it...wait for it......WINTER CANCEL!

[SnowintheFalls]

It just sucks how consistent the models were showing this arctic outbreak previously. Run after run showing that consistency the bam. It was a fun ride but this one seems to be one of the crazier forecast busts recently.

[txtwister78]

The "frustrating" part is all the players that you would want to deliver this cold are in play for our region (source/position). The issue is (at least to me) is getting enough blocking to build westward over the top of the cold to force/push this arctic air to a point where it just overwhelms the pattern and drives straight down the Midwest into Texas. You can see the transition of this on the GFS, however it has obviously been delayed more and more as we move forward. When it does release it's going to get cold and so that's not really the question for me. The issue is the longer this delay continues, the question then becomes will the same drivers of the cold be in place to bring it down to our region. That's the "concern" for me if you want arctic air.

Edit: This also goes back to the teleconnections post that was mentioned by Porta or Professor earlier I believe.

[WinterMax]

Okay, last 1 to leave the thread, please turn the lights off on the way out.

[Ralph's Weather]

Eh, one 18z run doesn't change my thinking at all. Watch in real time as the cold is already over performing just to our north in OK and even into NE TX with the freeze line along I-40 anlow 40s in NE TX. This sets the stage for the real cold to push south midweek. Though it wouldn't shock me if the coldest air isn't until next week as the snowpack builds to our north. We are in for a long term blast so even if this weekend is 40 vs 25 for highs we still have many days of well below average temps to come next week and beyond.

[rwfromkansas]

The opera singer is warming up....

[Texas Snow]

Eh, one 18z run doesn't change my thinking at all. Watch in real time as the cold is already over performing just to our north in OK and even into NE TX with the freeze line along I-40 anlow 40s in NE TX. This sets the stage for the real cold to push south midweek. Though it wouldn't shock me if the coldest air isn't until next week as the snowpack builds to our north. We are in for a long term blast so even if this weekend is 40 vs 25 for highs we still have many days of well below average temps to come next week and beyond.

Ralph! Ralph!! RALPH!!!

[MississippiWx]

The problem is the Pacific is not cooperating. The ridge off the Pacific NW erodes pretty quickly and ruins the delivery. We may eventually get some of the Arctic air to spill down to the South, but it still looks to take a week or more to get here. By that time, it is probably modified significantly.

You guys in Texas will have a better chance than us farther East.

[Rgv20]

Im grasping for straws here but the 18zGFS Ensemble Mean 500mb has the PV a bit more west just north of Minnesota instead of the operational 18zGFS which has it North of North Dakota. I did notice that the PV on the GFS Ensembles has become more elongated with each passing model run meaning that the trend is favoring the ECMWF right now.

18zGFS 500mb Friday Morning


18zGFS Ensemble Means 500mb Friday Morning

[WinterMax]

Euro sniffed it out 3 days ago, kutos

[EnnisTx]

Come on... you all sound like a bunch of junior high school girls that didn't make the drill team.

THE COLD COMETH!!

[bubba hotep]

I'm not sure what there is left to analyze... Each time it looks like the cold is coming, it doesn't. So just go with the warmer of the model runs.

Truly maddening and extremely defeating, akin to analyzing the Stock Market based on fundamentals!

Historically speaking, our big time cold outbreaks are -EPO driven. That is what has been a bit of a head scratcher with this whole thing, only a few model runs here and there have shown a big ridge into the EPO region. Ultimately, our pattern is driven by the Pacific and it appears that the wave train riding the Pacific jet extension is not wanting to wavebreak a favorable ridge for bit time Texas cold. That is a chaotic process and could still change but more runs across more models are breaking warm. On to the 00z runs!

[Stormcenter]

Come on now remember these models are notoriously
wrong so many times that if they were actual human beings they’d be fired years ago by the government Just wait until it happens if it does at all.

[Ralph's Weather]

Eh, one 18z run doesn't change my thinking at all. Watch in real time as the cold is already over performing just to our north in OK and even into NE TX with the freeze line along I-40 anlow 40s in NE TX. This sets the stage for the real cold to push south midweek. Though it wouldn't shock me if the coldest air isn't until next week as the snowpack builds to our north. We are in for a long term blast so even if this weekend is 40 vs 25 for highs we still have many days of well below average temps to come next week and beyond.

Ralph! Ralph!! RALPH!!!

Once I start comitting to a forecast I try to not change it much. It worked out for the snowstorm in Jan and I expect it to work out here also. I may miss on the exact magnitute, but in general I end up satisfied with my verification rates. I am sure not changing a forecast in the medium range based off of a 18Z GFS run haha. No chance it's warmer next weekend than this one. FYI here it was in the 30s this morning and upper 50s this afternoon with much colder temps a few miles north of here.

[Quixotic]

Early on when they showed the brutal cold another member of this board noticed, rightfully so, that AK was going to be cold too. One of those things that in retrospect should have been an indicator of the ridge popping wasn’t imminent.

[bubba hotep]

The GFS won't give it up lol

[WinterMax]

I'm gonna go watch "The Goat" I never was his biggest fan, but I'm in his corner today, lucky "7.

[gboudx]

Eh, one 18z run doesn't change my thinking at all. Watch in real time as the cold is already over performing just to our north in OK and even into NE TX with the freeze line along I-40 anlow 40s in NE TX. This sets the stage for the real cold to push south midweek. Though it wouldn't shock me if the coldest air isn't until next week as the snowpack builds to our north. We are in for a long term blast so even if this weekend is 40 vs 25 for highs we still have many days of well below average temps to come next week and beyond.

Ralph! Ralph!! RALPH!!!

Once I start comitting to a forecast I try to not change it much. It worked out for the snowstorm in Jan and I expect it to work out here also. I may miss on the exact magnitute, but in general I end up satisfied with my verification rates. I am sure not changing a forecast in the medium range based off of a 18Z GFS run haha. No chance it's warmer next weekend than this one. FYI here it was in the 30s this morning and upper 50s this afternoon with much colder temps a few miles north of here.

I’m with Ralph on this. Screw the models.