Texas Winter 2010-2011

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro ensembles much deeper, slower with the trough for next week - more in line with the Ukmet and JMA. GFS appears to have no clue how to handle the energy coming down from the Pacific Northwest but I'd be willing to bet that it should start to look more like the Ukmet by sometime tomorrow.

[BigB0882]

Seems as though FW NWS likes to chase the models that show the least amount of disruption.

It does seem that way. Maybe they have been burned one too many times on these winter storms and prefer to play it conservatively. It is still a ways out, plenty of time to introduce it slowly into their discussions before having to really pull the trigger. Can't say I blame them. We have had plenty of cold this winter but I remember a few times when the "big event" was supposed to be coming and it always modified and ended up warmer.

[Rgv20]

Midland afternoon discussion

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT....THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A DIGGING
NPAC LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH NEAR NV. AFTER WHICH...THE NWP MODELS
DIFFER ON WHERE IT WILL END UP IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A BRIEF CUTOFF LOW WITH IT AND SLOWLY PROGRESSES IT
EASTWARD OVER NM TUESDAY. THE ECMWF QUICKLY MOVES IT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AS A WESTERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. REGARDLESS...ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOW
AN ARCTIC AIR-MASS SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEST TEXAS AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT (GFS). THE ECMWF WAS PREVIOUSLY THE COLDEST
SOLUTION...WITH RIDICULOUS 850MB TEMPS NEAR -15C OVER MAF TUESDAY.
THE GFS NOW APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/COLDEST SOLUTION AND
IS ALSO WET WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER FEATURE. WE
HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED SINCE THE GFS HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND...WE HAVE LOWER MAX TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AS WELL CONSIDERING THE PREVIOUS COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/UPSLOPE REGIME CURRENTLY PROGGED. THE EXTENDED WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[orangeblood]

Seems as though FW NWS likes to chase the models that show the least amount of disruption.

They been extremely vague lately with their discussions. You would think, with one of the busiest travel weeks in DFW history coming up next week, that they would make people a little more aware of the potential setup for next week.

[HockeyTx82]

Seems as though FW NWS likes to chase the models that show the least amount of disruption.

They been extremely vague lately with their discussions. You would think, with one of the busiest travel weeks in DFW history coming up next week, that they would make people a little more aware of the potential setup for next week.

That or maybe they don't want to send people into a panic and wait a day or two more. I am sure that the people who need to know are getting info, but while we are getting closer we are still quite a few days out. Perhaps just caution?

[Brandon8181]

Seems as though FW NWS likes to chase the models that show the least amount of disruption.

They been extremely vague lately with their discussions. You would think, with one of the busiest travel weeks in DFW history coming up next week, that they would make people a little more aware of the potential setup for next week.

I would kind of think the same - don't get me wrong, I can understand as a Local met or NWS being conservative, but as you said, being one of probably the busiest travel times ever, they would atleast MENTION it, and discuss the probability of this event a bit.

I'm not suggest ONE way or the OTHER...but it would really be a bad thing IMO if DFW area got a significant amount of wintery precip over this time frame, with the super bowl travelers and all, especially if nothing had been forecasted within a week.

[Ntxw]

A lot of pressure on FW for sure. That's probably why they are hesitant to bring it up until they are absolutely certain. I guess we'll have to be patient, I'm sure they will caution should it warrant at the least this weekend.

[Dallasaggie01]

A lot of pressure on FW for sure. That's probably why they are hesitant to bring it up until they are absolutely certain. I guess we'll have to be patient, I'm sure they will caution should it warrant at the least this weekend.

I have to think that the folks on this forum are in the minority that look for NWS discussion detail and long range models on a regular basis, compared to the regular public who probably check the 5 day forecast graphics for their respective areas and move on. I wouldn't think there's a huge need to mention things until there's model agreement 3-4 days out

[Rgv20]

The 18z NAM with the building 1044 High in Canada at the end of its run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084m.gif

[HockeyTx82]

A lot of pressure on FW for sure. That's probably why they are hesitant to bring it up until they are absolutely certain. I guess we'll have to be patient, I'm sure they will caution should it warrant at the least this weekend.

I know when I visited the office over there just after Christmas they had on a board "Super Bowl weekend" and were talking about with me so it has been on the minds of the guys over there for quite some time. It really boils down to that we can forecast but can't control the weather.

[HockeyTx82]

A lot of pressure on FW for sure. That's probably why they are hesitant to bring it up until they are absolutely certain. I guess we'll have to be patient, I'm sure they will caution should it warrant at the least this weekend.

I have to think that the folks on this forum are in the minority that look for NWS discussion detail and long range models on a regular basis, compared to the regular public who probably check the 5 day forecast graphics for their respective areas and move on. I wouldn't think there's a huge need to mention things until there's model agreement 3-4 days out

I work in IT so I see people checking the weather at work on the computers all the time. Most people go to weather.com, msn.com, wfaa.com and so on. No one really goes to noaa.gov and when I tell them about it just type in noah.gov

[Ntxw]

A lot of local TV weather forecasts/programs often times reference forecast discussions even though they don't say it. Especially chief meteorologists. They often use the same discussion only worded a bit different. I'm sure they got it from the NWS. I've noticed this many times. Just like during the last Feb snowstorm. They updated their forecast on snow amounts and talked about how shields of precip would end, failing along with the NWS. So I think there's a lot more credence to the discussions than we may see.

[iorange55]

18z GFS looks like the same GFS so far. It's frustrating to watch it cause it just looks so meh compared to the other models. I want that cold air to push down with a vengeance.


Upside is it does show a lot of moisture.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS looks like the same GFS so far. It's frustrating to watch it cause it just looks so meh compared to the other models. I want that cold air to push down with a vengeance.


Upside is it does show a lot of moisture.

Full fledged blizzard in the panhandle, I'd take some of that! Vortmax is definitely south. I like the shortwave look. And it's not being disturbed by any other feature, in the process of cutting off.

[iorange55]

18z GFS looks like the same GFS so far. It's frustrating to watch it cause it just looks so meh compared to the other models. I want that cold air to push down with a vengeance.


Upside is it does show a lot of moisture.

Full fledged blizzard in the panhandle, I'd take some of that! Vortmax is definitely south. I like the shortwave look. And it's not being disturbed by any other feature, in the process of cutting off.

The models just need to blend together a little bit. Let's work it to where the GFS is a little colder and the Euro is a little wetter.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS looks decent, especially for 150+ hours out. Trending colder. Unfortunately this run leaves WacoWx right on the cusp again! Looks like the system will have an impressive trowel much like the other strong storms. Vertical motion.

[jasons2k]

Harold Taft used to say "never predict snow until you see it fallin' " and that worked-out for him pretty well over the years. On those rare occasions when Taft did actually put snow on the forecast, people took notice and he was almost always right....anyway...

I've seen a lot mentioned of the JMA. I believe this model was the only one to accurately depict the big NYC blizzard back in 2006 several days early. I seem to remember JB highlighting it one of his videos and saying something to the effect of at the time 'none of the other models see it yet, but the JMA is the only one that has the pattern right and if it verifies, look for a big-time NE storm, easily the biggest of the season'. This was about a week ahead of time. He harped on it all week and this is one of those examples where JB saw something first and was right. Anyway, I bring it up because that's one of the few examples when I recall the JMA being cited as an outlier that verified....and IIRC correctly, that system was also one that phased the northern and southern branches and the resulting low bombed off the east coast...

[WacoWx]

18z GFS looks decent, especially for 150+ hours out. Trending colder. Unfortunately this run leaves WacoWx right on the cusp again! Looks like the system will have an impressive trowel much like the other strong storms. Vertical motion.

I'm moving to DFW in 2 weeks to avoid this problem down the road. Your avatar will no longer haunt me. But until then.....

[Tireman4]

18z GFS looks decent, especially for 150+ hours out. Trending colder. Unfortunately this run leaves WacoWx right on the cusp again! Looks like the system will have an impressive trowel much like the other strong storms. Vertical motion.

I'm moving to DFW in 2 weeks to avoid this problem down the road. Your avatar will no longer haunt me. But until then.....

Gosh that is drastic. Just for snow...LOL......Goodness...

[WacoWx]

Dedication