Texas Winter 2012-2013

[knoxtnhorn]

http://www.weather.com/video/forecast-for-the-next-3-months-33830

This guy seems to think the worst is yet to come as well. Though, the track is a tad east of Texas proper.

[Texas Snowman]

Yeah and the trajectory of the storm that brought North Texas its "White Christmas" was a bit north a few days before the event.

I seem to remember a number of seasoned mets saying snow for Oklahoma but not North Texas.

Moral of that story: I don't think anything is etched in stone this winter.

[Ntxw]

Current MJO wave is for real. I checked the latest GWO and it continues to spike caused by mountain torque rising precipitously. Propagation is likely with the westerly burst and reconfiguration of the Pacific pattern.







A lot of mumbo jumbo but good for the mets at PWC to decipher

[Cyclenall]

That is a very good comparison for E/SE Canada, very similar temps and the Lakes are unfrozen.

Oh boy, this could be it . My forecast is already showing the most snow and coldest temperatures in years. 50 cm in the next 6 days as the max with blowing snow...

The Lakes are not just unfrozen, they are very very warm. I know there was as study that disproves any link to warmer lake surface temps. and LES but I can't help to think...

This post is becoming a reality, we are getting huge totals of snow and the coldest temperatures since Feb 2011 most likely. Most Texans cannot even fathom the amount of snow we're getting in the snow belt regions of southern Ontario.

They will cool pretty quick with such an air mass, I think the key to big lake effect snows will be the persistent arctic jet (you see constant stream of 5h vorticity). For SE Ontario a westerly wind component is the best set up for best squalls from Huron which is forecasted by the models with that streaming 5h. I'm no expert on LES though, just a wild guess!

That's great to hear, but I used to think the Lakes cooled really quick when this happens but it doesn't really do much to the LES...it can occur into March with average winter temperatures.

Hello winter? Where did you go?

It went in my backyard and others around mid-western Ontario. Imagine getting 5-10 cm of snow every 6 hours for days on end with -15ºC or below with that.

Anyone else notice the sub 930mb bomb the GFS/Euro are putting in the North Atlantic this week? What is up with the two big oceans and Goliath storms!

Yesterday's 18Z GFS had it down to 919mb.

Way out there! I could use the 919mb low in my backyard to whip up the snow to epic levels. Could these extreme lows occurring so far in 2013 be a sign of things to come? Who knows.

I was reading some comments last week from your neighbors to the east (Oklahoma) who are concerned about the upcoming late winter/early spring due to duststorms. In fact, some Okies are worried about having one of the worst duststorm seasons in decades.

I haven't really heard of duststorms in OK during the past decade or decades if you want to put it that way. When was the last one?

I looked at that WeatherCentre blog that talks daily about the SSW and PV placement, also US winter weather. Its big headline this weekend was "Historic Sudden Stratospheric Warming Continues" stating that records at the 70mb level are being shattered and the cold potential is increasing quickly. It was interesting to read here SSW cancel but then the opposite on that blog.

SSW Source: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

Then there was something interesting again about how the polar vortex is completely demolished on a model image in the future and if that occurred at the lower stratosphere level, "one could only imagine what cold would be unleashed upon the Earth in such a situation." That can be found here. That sounds like a cold lovers' dream and again like that other comment made a month ago, I don't know what exactly that is and how that works from a science point of view. Sounds like The Day After Tomorrow type talk .

[Ntxw]

I looked at that WeatherCentre blog that talks daily about the SSW and PV placement, also US winter weather. Its big headline this weekend was "Historic Sudden Stratospheric Warming Continues" stating that records at the 70mb level are being shattered and the cold potential is increasing quickly. It was interesting to read here SSW cancel but then the opposite on that blog.

SSW Source: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

Then there was something interesting again about how the polar vortex is completely demolished on a model image in the future and if that occurred at the lower stratosphere level, "one could only imagine what cold would be unleashed upon the Earth in such a situation." That can be found here. That sounds like a cold lovers' dream and again like that other comment made a month ago, I don't know what exactly that is and how that works from a science point of view. Sounds like The Day After Tomorrow type talk .

More to come in this post via edit.

Are you enjoying the cold and snow? . The SSW actually has already delivered. You guys are closer to the vortex so it's easier to get full effects, we've been waiting on the teleconnections to align and they haven't yet. It's been battling the MJO which says no.

That's a fun link you provided there!

[dhweather]

The GUT tells me we might see a few more shots of cold air, nothing epic, with a very remote shot of wintry precip. This is not based on any meteorological data, just my gut.

Fact is, we are in a severe drought, which is typically caused by abnormally dry conditions and warmer temperatures. That equates to lower chances of any precip, liquid or frozen. We are going to flirt with 80 degrees on Thursday, we will cool off a little, then back to near 70 early next week.

I was hoping that huge rain producer a couple of weeks ago might be the beginning of an overall pattern change, but it appears to have been exactly what it was, a big anomaly.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I looked at that WeatherCentre blog that talks daily about the SSW and PV placement, also US winter weather. Its big headline this weekend was "Historic Sudden Stratospheric Warming Continues" stating that records at the 70mb level are being shattered and the cold potential is increasing quickly. It was interesting to read here SSW cancel but then the opposite on that blog.

SSW Source: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

Then there was something interesting again about how the polar vortex is completely demolished on a model image in the future and if that occurred at the lower stratosphere level, "one could only imagine what cold would be unleashed upon the Earth in such a situation." That can be found here. That sounds like a cold lovers' dream and again like that other comment made a month ago, I don't know what exactly that is and how that works from a science point of view. Sounds like The Day After Tomorrow type talk .

More to come in this post via edit.

Are you enjoying the cold and snow? .

Thank you for making my day with that ? Ntxw!
Loved reading his answer above (he's been avoiding the Canadian thread).

[Cyclenall]

Are you enjoying the cold and snow? . The SSW actually has already delivered. You guys are closer to the vortex so it's easier to get full effects, we've been waiting on the teleconnections to align and they haven't yet. It's been battling the MJO which says no.

That's a fun link you provided there!

I'm enjoying the snow but not the cold, I never like that of course . I'm pretty PO'd with a capital P today because the most intense streamers of snowsqualls keeps missing me by mere miles all today but I got lucky the night before where one locked in on me for 4-5 hours but that is a discussion for the Canada Severe Thread.

I know that the first effects of the SSW has already been delivered (this date was the target) but I'm under the impression that the worst is to come soon near the start of February.

That link has been posted in this thread 6 times or so and I'm surprised you weren't already following that since its heavy on the SSW news. Its all winter talk there so something to follow.

The next thing I was going to bring up that came from WeatherCentre was this image:



384 Hours, 4-5 day old image but this looks quite astonishing even though I don't know as much about these maps. There were 4 other images similar to this one but this had the tightest gradient IMO. What would this translate to if verified? The height anomaly is almost at the maximum negative the scale shows and the isobars are insanely tight. The Polar Vortex appears to be within the US.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS certainly is interesting next week. Big storm potential tapping into PV energy/cold, probably not the right solution but idea is there

[weatherdude1108]

Winter isn't quite done yet IMO. February historically has one or more surprises of the frozen variety around here!
Bob Rose also briefly talks about the drought situation across the country with interesting images.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[somethingfunny]

I have something to say.

Who cares about the PV/SSW? My NTX yard has turned white with snow three times this winter and not once did that happen during any monstrous cold snap. All we need is some seasonably below-average temperatures and some coincident moisture.

[dhweather]

I have something to say.

Who cares about the PV/SSW? My NTX yard has turned white with snow three times this winter and not once did that happen during any monstrous cold snap. All we need is some seasonably below-average temperatures and some coincident moisture.

Amen! I've had snow twice this year, we were fortunate to get anything. It takes a lot of things to be "right" for snow to happen, that's why its so rare. Drought and abnormally warm conditions make it even more unlikely. It's fun to talk about and understand and learn about the things that could happen, but practically they are rare. If they weren't, we wouldn't care so much.

[wxman57]

Can we believe the models for next week's weather yet? I'm sure liking what I'm seeing. Had to add my red dashed 80F line back to my meteograms.

[Portastorm]

Yep wxman57 ... winter is over. You called it. We can all go home now.

[Tireman4]

Yep wxman57 ... winter is over. You called it. We can all go home now.

Sigh. Why oh why? Mother Nature let us have two weeks and that is it. It. He had most of December. Dadgummit.

[HockeyTx82]

Well sounds like the cold delivered up to the midwest and north east.

Yikes!

http://news.msn.com/us/sub-zero-tempera ... -northeast

[wxman57]

Yep wxman57 ... winter is over. You called it. We can all go home now.

At least for the next week. Beyond that I make no guarantees. It does appear as though the cold is shifting to the eastern U.S. with Texas getting just a little backdoor cold air next Wed. And we still have February to go...

[Rgv20]

You want my forecast wxman57, The next 5 day Forecast Highs 80F+ with tomorrow being the warmest at 87F!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

The forecast I saw for the first week of February sure changed overnight. Went from being highs in the 40s to highs in the mid to upper 60s. Good ol Texas, where spring and summer last all year.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: You want my forecast wxman57, The next 5 day Forecast Highs 80F+ with tomorrow being the warmest at 87F!!

I need to move farther south. Perfect January weather.