Texas Winter 2020-2021

[HockeyTx82]

The GFS won't give it up lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020718/gfs_T2m_scus_36.png

Right, Sub Zero temps..........

It's a lock, book it.

[bubba hotep]

The GFS won't give it up lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020718/gfs_T2m_scus_36.png

Right, Sub Zero temps..........

It's a lock, book it.

Lock this in as well!

[Yukon Cornelius]

I honestly just hope it happens, not only because I love winter and cold weather but mainly for the fact that I’ve just spent the last 3 days getting livestock and water wells situated and prepared for it. Literally 3 solid days.

[HockeyTx82]

The GFS won't give it up lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020718/gfs_T2m_scus_36.png

Right, Sub Zero temps..........

It's a lock, book it.

Lock this in as well!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020718/gfs_asnow_scus_41.png

Obviously it's out to lunch, look at that hard cutoff of snow right on the coastline. Throw it out.

[Brent]

The GFS won't give it up lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020718/gfs_T2m_scus_36.png

Pretty soon 200 hours will be March

[bubba hotep]

The GFS won't give it up lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020718/gfs_T2m_scus_36.png

Pretty soon 200 hours will be March

What's the all-time modeled low temp at DFW in March? The GFS is going for the record!

[EnnisTx]

The GFS won't give it up lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020718/gfs_T2m_scus_36.png

Pretty soon 200 hours will be March

What's the all-time modeled low temp at DFW in March? The GFS is going for the record!

8.2°F being recorded on March 2, 1980 the lowest in March I believe.

[txtwister78]

Better late than never. Stay the course folks.

[Rgv20]

Happy Super Bowl Sunday! 18zECMWF Control Run flipped....Will the 0zECMWF trend the same way?

1052mb High sliding down south midday Saturday

[3090]

Happy Super Bowl Sunday! 18zECMWF Control Run flipped....Will the 0zECMWF trend the same way?

1052mb High sliding down south midday Saturday
https://i.imgur.com/NlTCEi4.png

That is coming into alignment with the GFS. As many will recall the GFS was on this scenario from jump but then started flip-flopping. But the latest from the GFS is essentially to where it started. So now we see if the other models start to fall in line.

[EnnisTx]

Well the weather watching has been more entertaining than these lousy Super Bowl commercials...

[Texas Snow]

Happy Super Bowl Sunday! 18zECMWF Control Run flipped....Will the 0zECMWF trend the same way?

1052mb High sliding down south midday Saturday
https://i.imgur.com/NlTCEi4.png

Don’t post anything positive, bunch of quitters on here

Bring the cold! Let the precip work itself out.


Never surrender, never summer (I stole that from someone’s sig)

[HockeyTx82]

Happy Super Bowl Sunday! 18zECMWF Control Run flipped....Will the 0zECMWF trend the same way?

1052mb High sliding down south midday Saturday
https://i.imgur.com/NlTCEi4.png

Don’t post anything positive, bunch of quitters on here

Bring the cold! Let the precip work itself out.


Never surrender, never summer (I stole that from someone’s sig)

Just over a week ago we were supposed to be bottoming out starting today. I had aspirations of a hot bowl of chili and Super Bowl watching. Instead it was sunny, seasonal and beautiful.

[Texas Snow]

True but the forecast isn’t 80 yet and the cold air is still to the north. If it all drains out somewhere else then there is reason to lose hope, until then it’s fun to follow and hope it makes it down. I wanted a fire today watching the super bowl but I am just as happy doing it Valentines Day, so to speak.

[txtwister78]

One thing you learn when attempting to forecast weather is despite all the models (resources that they offer to weather enthusiasts/the general public/mets), mother nature still has her own plan at times and always throws a few curve balls. If the cold comes (and I believe it will) does it really matter in the end if it came a few days later? I don't envy those who have to do this on TV because I'm not at all saying forecast aren't important to the general public (planning etc), but if you study the weather and learn to appreciate all the dynamics that have to come into play to get a particular outcome to occur at a particular point in time (hitting vs busting), then it makes the models less important than the actual drivers of what's behind them.

Not a rant directed at anyone. Just trying to give a different perspective....even if you don't get the outcome you want in the end. It makes the ride along the way fun though I think.

[Haris]

[Ntxw]

One thing you learn when attempting to forecast weather is despite all the models (resources that they offer to weather enthusiasts/the general public/mets), mother nature still has her own plan at times and always throws a few curve balls. If the cold comes (and I believe it will) does it really matter in the end if it came a few days later? I don't envy those who have to do this on TV because I'm not at all saying forecast aren't important to the general public (planning etc), but if you study the weather and learn to appreciate all the dynamics that have to come into play to get a particular outcome to occur at a particular point in time (hitting vs busting), then it makes the models less important than the actual drivers of what's behind them.

Not a rant directed at anyone. Just trying to give a different perspective....even if you don't get the outcome you want in the end. It makes the ride along the way fun though I think.

Couldn't have said it better. That's the whole purpose of this board, is to discuss and continue the conversation. Any one can pull up a model or map and stare at it to no avail. That's what our community is for to share insight and try to make sense of it all. Without it, we don't have a board!

Perhaps maybe this will turn out to be the case where things sort of get lost in the medium range and then comes roaring back? It's still going to get cold for some if not many, lets start with some good 0z trends.

[Cpv17]

The Euro will flip flop with the GFS lol now the GFS will be the torch and the Euro the freezer

[bubba hotep]

Im grasping for straws here but the 18zGFS Ensemble Mean 500mb has the PV a bit more west just north of Minnesota instead of the operational 18zGFS which has it North of North Dakota. I did notice that the PV on the GFS Ensembles has become more elongated with each passing model run meaning that the trend is favoring the ECMWF right now.

18zGFS 500mb Friday Morning
https://i.imgur.com/RkYCBqJ.png

18zGFS Ensemble Means 500mb Friday Morning
https://i.imgur.com/DItx7Ox.png

Based on climo, it would be unusual to see a TPV drift westward like some of the model runs are showing. Once they move towards the mid lats they typically move SE towards the Great Lakes. Now to see if models trend back towards climo or if we get this unusual westward consolidation/ drift before heading back eastward?

[cheezyWXguy]

12k nam looks like it might try to squeeze out that Thursday event, just out of range