Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gboudx]

Cantore Cancel?

[BradKingK]

I’m out on this storm latest HRRR has it raining and already above freezing Thursday AM for my area.

Don't give up just yet. A couple of the biggest snows we have had here in Tyler the last 5 years were not supposed to be, and they were.

[WacoWx]

"...medium likelihood of moderate impacts..."

Not sure why this phrase bothers me so much, but it does.

Are we too late for the phasing to occur still, or is the Low already hanging too far back where it wasn't originally anticipated? I'm just grasping at straws to find a way for the models to flip back as we get closer to Thursday, and to give us colder temps.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I have done zero model watching so far this winter and now I remember why. We’ve had these type of swings before in winter weather events in dfw. Never know for sure until the snow starts falling. This is one time I wouldn’t be to disappointed if it rained because I had an event to go to in Dallas Thursday night.

[Texas Snow]

Have to admit, I was shocked to wake up to see the winter storm watch with the snow amounts the national weather service is going with and their level of confidence. I found this graphic interesting.

[Fifty Rock]

NWS for Abilene/San Angelo
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2025

We've got a messy long-term forecast so let's try to break it down.
Here's the bottom line up front: Precip type has become
significantly more uncertain and snow totals have decreased
dramatically from even just 12 hours ago.

Why is this? Most deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended
towards a slower ejection of the upper level low out of the
southwestern US/Baja California region. Unfortunately, what this
means is that we will have some more time for warmer air to creep
further north into our area. This means that precipitation type
just got a lot messier. What started as a mostly snow event with
only a small area of mixed precip has potentially changed to a
mostly mixed precip with some snow across our northern counties
event.

European ensemble data has come more in line with the GFS with an
overall drier solution with the heaviest snow totals offset to the
north and east closer to the DFW metroplex and along the Red River
into southeastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. There's still a great deal
of uncertainty in regards to surface and low level temperatures as
just a few degrees will make a world of difference in p-type. I'm
not convinced that the mid range models are picking up on some of
the evaporative cooling that will take place once precipitation
starts late Wednesday which may make the transition to a more
singular winter precip type happen more quickly but until we start
getting some more hi-res guidance, this will be hard to pin down.
All this to say that the dramatic shift in the 00Z model suite has
thrown a massive wrench in our previous forecast. We are hoping that
the 12Z suite provides a bit more consistency to start configuring a
potential winter storm watch for portions of our area. The best
chances for snow remain in the eastern Big Country where the axis
of heavier snow still looks to set up. However, where totals were
in the 3-7 inch range yesterday, we now have totals maxing out in
the 2-4 inch range. Ice totals have also come up for the NW Hill
Country and southern Heartland where a wintry mix may transition
to freezing rain. Everywhere south of the Big Country is a big
question mark at this point in time. Overall totals of anything
should be taken with a boulder-sized grain of salt as details are
likely to change in the next 24-36 hours. To reiterate: the main
takeaway is that chances for mixed-precip has gone up and chances
for widespread snow have gone down.

Precipitation looks to peak on Thursday afternoon/evening and come
to an end by early Friday. 850 mb winds shift rapidly to the west on
Friday which will help skies begin to clear and temperatures to
climb into the upper 30s to low 40s. Skies by Saturday should be
nice and sunny with temperatures climbing back into the upper 40s to
mid 50s by the afternoon. Overall from the weekend on, a dry
forecast with near normal temperatures looks to continue, which will
be a nice reprieve from the start of the long-term.

[Ntxw]

Have to admit, I was shocked to wake up to see the winter storm watch with the snow amounts the national weather service is going with and their level of confidence. I found this graphic interesting.

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image7.jpg

From the latest rounds of guidance yesterday the western zones are at risk of lower qpf while the increase has been to the eastern zones. The temperature profile changes occurred we have discussed at length, the mood went with it here, there was another shift of liquid equivalent going on as well for the past 2 days.

[HockeyTx82]

Have to admit, I was shocked to wake up to see the winter storm watch with the snow amounts the national weather service is going with and their level of confidence. I found this graphic interesting.

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image7.jpg

I think this is their, well we told you it might not happen graphic.

Hey I get it, especially today with all of the Social Media stuff. They don't want to get roasted if this thing bombs out and they don't have a Escape Route.

[snowballzzz]

My oh my how the mood has changed in here today. I’d like to be optimistic since we’re still 48 hours and have clearly seen these flips in the models several times over the last week. What a tough forecast.

[Ntxw]

Here's another wish! If it's going to slow down, let it go negative tilt even more and slow even further. Then that can allow the incoming fresh cold Friday night make it. That way the backend snow can go stronger, longer.

[Texas Snow]

Have to admit, I was shocked to wake up to see the winter storm watch with the snow amounts the national weather service is going with and their level of confidence. I found this graphic interesting.

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image7.jpg

From the latest rounds of guidance yesterday the western zones are at risk of lower qpf while the increase has been to the eastern zones. The temperature profile changes occurred we have discussed at length, the mood went with it here, there was another shift of liquid equivalent going on as well for the past 2 days.

I'm well aware of why the confidence out west is lower (corrected). But based on the temperature profile changes that have been discussed at length, I am surprised they have this much confidence in some of the other zones. I feel the bust potential is higher but I trust them more so we'll see

Cant believe how quiet it is here given we are under WSW in North Texas for 3-6". I think a lot of folks were banking on a foot or more

[snownado]

12z NAM now shows no measurabale precipitation at all for most of N. Texas, *AND* fairly limited snowfall for anyone really.

Talk about a train wreck, lol...

[Ntxw]

Have to admit, I was shocked to wake up to see the winter storm watch with the snow amounts the national weather service is going with and their level of confidence. I found this graphic interesting.

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image7.jpg

From the latest rounds of guidance yesterday the western zones are at risk of lower qpf while the increase has been to the eastern zones. The temperature profile changes occurred we have discussed at length, the mood went with it here, there was another shift of liquid equivalent going on as well for the past 2 days.

I'm well aware of why the confidence out west is higher. But based on the temperature profile changes that have been discussed at length, I am surprised they have this much confidence in some of the other zones. I feel the bust potential is higher but I trust them more so we'll see

The graphic noted the confidence in the west is actually lower (the red areas is where they say is higher uncertainty) and that is from lack of qpf, downtrends out there.

[orangeblood]

Massive change to the latest short range guidance...it has almost completely lost the phase with the northern feature! Monumental change at 5h, not sure exactly what this means but forecast and timing likely need to be changed drastically for everyone across the south if this trend continues.

Pretty shocking, personally have never seen as drastic of a change at 5h within 48 hours. It's always evolving as you get closer to an event but this is an off the charts shift

[Texas Snow]

From the latest rounds of guidance yesterday the western zones are at risk of lower qpf while the increase has been to the eastern zones. The temperature profile changes occurred we have discussed at length, the mood went with it here, there was another shift of liquid equivalent going on as well for the past 2 days.

I'm well aware of why the confidence out west is higher. But based on the temperature profile changes that have been discussed at length, I am surprised they have this much confidence in some of the other zones. I feel the bust potential is higher but I trust them more so we'll see

The graphic noted the confidence in the west is actually lower (the red areas is where they say is higher uncertainty) and that is from lack of qpf, downtrends out there.

I mean to say that, i did a double negative in my brain when I typed. I still get the reasoning.

My point is the NWS has medium to high confidence in some areas that recent models seem to show have a bust potential. They even tweeted out their snowfall forecast graphic 20 minutes ago.

[snownado]

Here's another wish! If it's going to slow down, let it go negative tilt even more and slow even further. Then that can allow the incoming fresh cold Friday night make it. That way the backend snow can go stronger, longer.

To the NAM's credit, it came the closest to doing that so far (but still no cigar).

[snownado]

12z NAM now shows no measurabale precipitation at all for most of N. Texas, *AND* fairly limited snowfall for anyone really.

Talk about a train wreck, lol...

I'll say though, I'd be good with this over the other likely alternatives at this point...

[orangeblood]

INSANITY withing 2 runs

From this at 0Z...


To this at 12Z

[starsfan65]

Massive change to the latest short range guidance...it has almost completely lost the phase with the northern feature! Monumental change at 5h, not sure exactly what this means but forecast and timing likely need to be changed drastically for everyone across the south if this trend continues.

Pretty shocking, personally have never seen as drastic of a change at 5h within 48 hours. It's always evolving as you get closer to an event but this is an off the charts shift

where is the system now?

[Ralph's Weather]

I am not seeing any clarity this morning for Thursday precip types. For Thu morning Euro has upper 20s, GFS has mid 30s and Canadian has around 20. NAM and HRRR are in the low 30s. Many models have 850mb above freezing for much of the area and NAM has the who region above freezing at 850mb. Weird that NAM is one of the warmest through the event. I say we have to punt 6Z runs and maybe 12Z runs start to clarify things.