Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Big O]

Based on the European ensembles, it appears there may be a chance of wintry precipitation over a large part of Texas from 1/31/15 through 2/5/15. The past two runs of the ensembles have both shown this possibility. As always, since this is 10 days and beyond, take it with a grain of salt; however, I surely wouldn't say, "Winter Cancel"....yet.

[iorange55]

I would like to see snow fall, but I'd rather the warmer models win, I don't want anything messing up my travel to San Antonio on Friday.

Uh, yeah, I need to see your snow card. How could you say such a thing? I know I said something similar a few weeks ago, but that was just a chance for nasty ice!

When several inches of snow are on the table, you always side with the snow! Snow > Everything else.

[TheProfessor]

not when that snow could prevent me from meeting friends at a convention that I have been wanting to meet for months.

[TexasStorm]

Looks like areas from San Angelo west to Midland-Odessa and north to Dumas will see snow in the next 48 hours. The further north you go in that loose pyramid the higher the accumulations. Panhandle could see up to a foot. Winter storm watches and warnings in place.

Ugh ... winter weather.

Wasn't it 4 or 5 winters ago that the panhandle kept getting hit with winter storm after winter storm but we were always just on the edge of all the fun?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

The one thing I will note is that surface dew points are very low in NoTex right now, as in teens and low 20s. With colder air aloft, it would seem wet bulbing could be more of a factor than with the most recent prior events. Just a thought.

[dhweather]

The NAM has lost its mind, dumping 6-8+ inches of snow on the northern counties (Denton, Wise) etc. Would be a back end changeover for most areas north of I-20. Ecmwf/GFS wants none of that. If something like the crazy NAM happened is a forecasters nightmare

ntxw - didn't something along these lines happen with one of our winter storms in the last 3-4 years? Maybe the Super Bowl storm? NAM nailed it, GFS & Euro whiffed.

[orangeblood]

As I recall, it was the Snowmaggedon 2010 event that the NAM nailed...very similar setup but differences being 2010's system was a little deeper/colder aloft and surface high brought in more cold advection at the surface (northerly wind direction ).

[TheProfessor]

Yeah it was the 2010 storm that the NAM nailed, which was the first storm I started looking at model data, I remember telling my friends that a model was forecasting a foot of snow and they were like that won't ever happen lol.

[Portastorm]

With the discussion this morning centering around which computer model to buy into ... it's probably worth reading the snippet below from the Weather Prediction Center's model diagnostic discussion:

THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SPLIT FLOW IN PLACE WITH ONE
SUCH SYSTEM DIVING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL ID WHILE THE OTHER FEATURE
DIGS THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. THIS GENERAL PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO
STREAMS OCCURS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON THURSDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY IS NOTED IN HOW THIS PROCESS
OCCURS WITH THE 21Z SREF MEAN DRAGGING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
FARTHER TO THE WEST. THIS ULTIMATELY LEADS TO A SLOWER EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE ENTIRE UPPER TROF. MOVING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THE SPREAD CONTINUES TO GROW WITH THE 00Z UKMET JOINING
THE 21Z SREF MEAN BEING OFF TOWARD THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
DOWNSTREAM. THE 00Z NAM/CMC EVENTUALLY JUMP AHEAD OF OTHER
SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE QUICKER THAN ANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF PRESENT A REASONABLE COMPROMISE HERE DESPITE OF THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHICH
IS NOTED IN A MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THERE WAS
A TREND NOTED IN THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH WAS IN THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
DIRECTION WHICH BRINGS IT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION.
THEY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT RELATIVELY SIMILAR SURFACE LOW TRACKS
WHICH ALSO ARE SUPPORTED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. WILL
STAY THE COURSE WITH THE PREVIOUS PREFERENCE WHILE INCORPORATING
THE NEW ECMWF RUN.

[Portastorm]

Looks like the "event" is beginning ... snow in a 1/2 mile visibility at Dalhart at 9 am. Surface temp of 34 degrees.

[Tireman4]

We will come get you Porta. Just hang in there. Rescue missions are on their way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvNn_vJy0BM

[iorange55]

:uarrow: not when that snow could prevent me from meeting friends at a convention that I have been wanting to meet for months.

I was just giving you a hard time. I am sure you will have safe roads to travel on. Maybe we will just be lucky enough to see some of the white stuff flying around.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z NAM does not look as promising, I think mainly because it moves the precip out faster. The GFS Skew-T is not that much different from the NAM so I do not think the NAM is completely lost. We will have to watch how cold tomorrow comes in at because temps are progged to be pretty close for a big snow tomorrow over North Texas though most models show it staying warm enough for just about all rain for most areas.

[weatherdude1108]

Cool misty drizzle. 50 degrees with a north breeze. Just enough to bother your eyes when you walk out in it. Far cry from 80 degrees yesterday.
That was nice for a bit, but I was ready for cold and precipity after that.

Looking forward to the upcoming predicted wet!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I do not envy the forecasters at NWS FWD. With impressive lift dynamics, the difference between a period of rain/snow mix and over a half foot of snow will be temperatures. The SREF is in a different camp from the NAM which is in a different camp from the GFS/ECMWF. I still remember how hard the February 11-12, 2010 storm was to forecast when I lived in Saginaw. Good luck.

[Montgomery]

This sums it up.....

[weatherdude1108]

Good morning video briefing out of the FWD office.

http://youtu.be/M1Wd3ezLAjE

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1101 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
THIS MORNING UPDATE IS FOR MINOR CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
PACKAGE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN /FORECASTING TEXAS SNOW STORMS/ BY TED RYAN AND STACIE
HANES...WHICH IS AVAILABLE THROUGH INTERNET SEARCH...THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE A /DETACHING UPPER TROUGH/ SCENARIO. THE PIECE
STATES THAT THIS SCENARIO IS THE MOST FREQUENT SNOW PRODUCER
ACROSS TEXAS...BUT IN THIS CASE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TX 500MB TEMPS
ARE ABOUT 8 DEG C WARMER THAN THE MEAN. ALSO...ARCTIC AIR SHOULD
BE IN PLACE ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM ARRIVES AND THIS HAS
NOT HAPPENED. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST AND EVEN
THOUGH THEY WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY...TEMPERATURES IN
AR/MO/OK/KS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AS I WRITE THIS.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING A MIX THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSAGE...THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
WILL OCCUR AGAIN...THIS TIME FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN
THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW OCCURS...AND ONCE AGAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS
ON FRIDAY. 84

[Tejas89]

Would love to see some fluffy flakes this week.

We never got below freezing at our place during the Feb. 2010 storm (8" with the streets covered). But it was colder... mid 30's.

[Ralph's Weather]

Would love to see some fluffy flakes this week.

We never got below freezing at our place during the Feb. 2010 storm (8" with the streets covered). But it was colder... mid 30's.

Right now models are showing temps around 40, if they turn out to be closer to 34-36 then we will be in for a big surprise as snow will be falling heavily above us.