Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola disco


Winter weather... The potential for winter weather has increased
even further today, enough to say that the "dry scenario" is pretty
much off the table at this point. In fact, this morning`s NBM
probabilities of snowfall greater than an inch has increased to
roughly 50-70 percent across the area. What`s even more impressive
is that the 12z ECMWF ensemble probabilities of over an inch are
surprisingly over 90 percent and the probabilities over three
inches are around 30-50 percent north and 60-70 percent south! If
amounts over three inches actually occurred at KMOB, this event would
place us in the top 5 for historic snowfall amounts on record for
the site. As far as scenarios, I can still see one of two
scenarios playing out, however, regardless of which scenario
actually occurs, we are beginning to see signals that this may
become a highly impactful and dangerous event, so we urge
residents and visitors to continue monitoring the forecast closely
over the next few days and to begin preparing for this event. A
Winter Storm Watch will likely be issued within the next 12 to 18
hours.

[Ivanhater]

18z Euro still remarkably consistent

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[MississippiWx]

18z Euro still remarkably consistent https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250118/93a78ad0f19c1cde936a6c47fc7cd44b.jpg

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Can you post the frame before that one?

[Steve]

18z Euro still remarkably consistent https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250118/93a78ad0f19c1cde936a6c47fc7cd44b.jpg

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Can you post the frame before that one?

Run the model. Switch to animation loop from single image

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full

[MississippiWx]

18z Euro still remarkably consistent https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250118/93a78ad0f19c1cde936a6c47fc7cd44b.jpg

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Can you post the frame before that one?

Run the model. Switch to animation loop from single image

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full

That site doesn’t have the 18z runs.

[Steve]

You’re right. It says it does but it’s the 12z

[Jag95]

I know I'm wobble watching, but I liked the trend on the 0Z NAM. Snow line a little further south through LA, MS and AL, and bigger amts. The temp rides the 32 degree all the way down the graph down to the coast when precip begins. My workplace got 4-7 inches on that run. ICON looking better too.

[Stormcenter]

ICON not changing it's tune in the latest run.

[Jag95]

ICON not changing it's tune in the latest run.

Shifted the snow cover 50 miles to the north on the east end and increased amts. Small steps for us to the east.

[Steve]

GFS rolling.

[MississippiWx]

Icon was better at 0z.

GFS looks similar to it. A couple of more runs and the GFS will have all the precip out over the Gulf. 0z is yet another south shift with it.

[Stormcenter]

I don't agree, looks pretty much the same to me.

Icon was better at 0z.

GFS looks similar to it. A couple of more runs and the GFS will have all the precip out over the Gulf. 0z is yet another south shift with it.

[Steve]

Canadian is still going ham.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=120

[Jag95]

Icon was better at 0z.

GFS looks similar to it. A couple of more runs and the GFS will have all the precip out over the Gulf. 0z is yet another south shift with it.

Yeah, hopefully it reverses the trend. The last two runs have been in the wrong direction. NAM and ICON look slightly better, GFS is worse. Still have over two days to go...

[Brent]

Yeah I would be very worried about a NW trend on the coast.. Hopefully it doesn't happen but it always seems to be a thing with these

[MississippiWx]

I don't agree, looks pretty much the same to me.

Icon was better at 0z.

GFS looks similar to it. A couple of more runs and the GFS will have all the precip out over the Gulf. 0z is yet another south shift with it.

All you have to do is the run comparison on Tropical Tidbits and it’s fairly obvious. All of the models are currently in a south shift with the heaviest precip. Icon has come a little north to meet the other models coming south. Looks like the heaviest precip is beginning to concentrate on I-10. Still time to come back north a bit, but beginning to wonder if places north of I-20 will see anything at all.

[MississippiWx]

Yeah I would be very worried about a NW trend on the coast.. Hopefully it doesn't happen but it always seems to be a thing with these

For now, the trend is the opposite direction.

[Brent]

Yeah I would be very worried about a NW trend on the coast.. Hopefully it doesn't happen but it always seems to be a thing with these

For now, the trend is the opposite direction.

Yeah well see but it is still 2 days out too

[Ralph's Weather]

Yeah I would be very worried about a NW trend on the coast.. Hopefully it doesn't happen but it always seems to be a thing with these

For now, the trend is the opposite direction.

Yeah well see but it is still 2 days out too

Exactly, you benefitted last week as the system sent moisture way north of the long modeled hotspot and that shift happened very close to the event start.

[Brent]

For now, the trend is the opposite direction.

Yeah well see but it is still 2 days out too

Exactly, you benefitted last week as the system sent moisture way north of the long modeled hotspot and that shift happened very close to the event start.

Yup I didn't even know we were getting 6 inches til I woke up at 4am and saw 6 inches these things will literally shift as it's happening