Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Cpv17]

GFS deterministic has me between two storms pretty much. That'd suck if it happened but there's reason for optimism. The GEFS has improved each run for me with my snow mean going up and more members showing higher snow amounts. Additionally this screams being further south than the models have it so I almost don't mind being on the south edge of the heavy snow. Hoping I won't have to deal with ice here, but we also need the QPF so at this point I'll take it as I can get it.

I think this will trend quite a bit further south. I really expect it to dig down the Baja pretty far.

[Quixotic]

Typically, all eyes are on the Pacific, but the next 48 hrs over the NATL are also critical to what happens next week across Texas. We have an explosive storm moving off the NE US, and the convection associated with that will pump latent heat. That will influence the downstream ridge and, if it is more amped up, then that will help buckle the flow. Global models handle this process pretty poorly since it is convectively driven. However, you can see the GFS trying to adjust to it with higher heights pushing northward towards Green Land. This will have upstream influences that could slow the incoming longwave trough and allow it to dig more into the SW.

https://i.ibb.co/SwYJ9JG/gfs-z500a-Norm-nhem-fh42-trend.gif

Ideally, wouldn’t we want more ridging on the EC? I mean, I get the NAO teleconnection, but some of our most persistent patterns had ridges on both coasts.

[TheProfessor]

I am worried about ice somewhere. This looks like a classic overrunning event with that cold air rushing south much faster than models have it. Once you start talking about 3" of sleet like one of the graphics someone posted showed roads become absurdly treacherous. Combine that with a prolonged cool down (especially if we're covering the Central and Southern Plains with ice and snow) you're looking at a potential ice storm on par with 2013. That was a nightmare I don't want to repeat. Might actually be colder than that ice storm was too so things could get rough if that plays out.

[Haris]

[Iceresistance]

I am worried about ice somewhere. This looks like a classic overrunning event with that cold air rushing south much faster than models have it. Once you start talking about 3" of sleet like one of the graphics someone posted showed roads become absurdly treacherous. Combine that with a prolonged cool down (especially if we're covering the Central and Southern Plains with ice and snow) you're looking at a potential ice storm on par with 2013. That was a nightmare I don't want to repeat. Might actually be colder than that ice storm was too so things could get rough if that plays out.

Me & My family fled to Missouri a day earlier than the planned trip, the Ice Storm followed us there to Springfield, MO, but it weakened as it got there thankfully.

I call it the 'Christmas Ice Storm of 2013'

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/TgM6jhG/7-EDD89-F6-91-B3-412-F-AB80-282-B0-C9-FB64-C.png [/url]

What's the Mean Snowfall looking like? (Unless it's not a feature there on WeatherBell)

[Cpv17]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/TgM6jhG/7-EDD89-F6-91-B3-412-F-AB80-282-B0-C9-FB64-C.png [/url]

Wow

[bubba hotep]

Typically, all eyes are on the Pacific, but the next 48 hrs over the NATL are also critical to what happens next week across Texas. We have an explosive storm moving off the NE US, and the convection associated with that will pump latent heat. That will influence the downstream ridge and, if it is more amped up, then that will help buckle the flow. Global models handle this process pretty poorly since it is convectively driven. However, you can see the GFS trying to adjust to it with higher heights pushing northward towards Green Land. This will have upstream influences that could slow the incoming longwave trough and allow it to dig more into the SW.

https://i.ibb.co/SwYJ9JG/gfs-z500a-Norm-nhem-fh42-trend.gif

Ideally, wouldn’t we want more ridging on the EC? I mean, I get the NAO teleconnection, but some of our most persistent patterns had ridges on both coasts.

Yes, but that is farther out into the future around D5. How do you get to these higher heights at D5? It's all connected. This image is a total flip from what we've seen with our systems so far this winter. Model runs that tried to develop winter storms across Texas were trying to do it with lower heights in the NE and that is why I've pooed on all of them.

[rwfromkansas]

I just hope it doesn’t go too far south now. Cough cough. And then it creates a Gulf low blocking moisture.

[Ntxw]

I am worried about ice somewhere. This looks like a classic overrunning event with that cold air rushing south much faster than models have it. Once you start talking about 3" of sleet like one of the graphics someone posted showed roads become absurdly treacherous. Combine that with a prolonged cool down (especially if we're covering the Central and Southern Plains with ice and snow) you're looking at a potential ice storm on par with 2013. That was a nightmare I don't want to repeat. Might actually be colder than that ice storm was too so things could get rough if that plays out.

Source region is Siberia. The coming air mass crossed over and traversing the Arctic. Storm has kind of overshadowed what's looming with the cold.

[bubba hotep]

At 90hr, the 18z Euro looks like another step in the right direction. Sharper ridge into Alaska and that energy in the Pacific looks like it will get drawn into the base of the trough and not strung out like previous runs. Overall, maybe a bit slower as well.

[Haris]

I just hope it doesn’t go too far south now. Cough cough. And then it creates a Gulf low blocking moisture.

No need to worry about that right now. Let’s get the fundamentals in place. Hopefully Sunday

[TheProfessor]

I just hope it doesn’t go too far south now. Cough cough. And then it creates a Gulf low blocking moisture.

One day we need one of those Gulf Lows to go pseudo nor'easter and occlude northward dumping snow along I-35. Would take an absolutely monster trough though.

[Ntxw]

I just hope it doesn’t go too far south now. Cough cough. And then it creates a Gulf low blocking moisture.

No need to worry about that right now. Let’s get the fundamentals in place. Hopefully Sunday

If it goes too far south you have insurance policy with anafront snow . The "10-15" inches showing up in the central plains.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I was a little surprised too. GEFS/EPS on average you'd give 50/50 based on the number of members showing snowfall for DFW. The upper end has some doozies. 1 in 2 is a pretty probability given the range. But shows perhaps they are weighing more heavily on the Euro OP. Once that switches it should change.

I expect them to be even more conservative than usual for the next couple days, even if trends continue, due to last years storm and the hype and weariness that surrounds it among the public. I’ve had family friends ask me in advance of some of our normal nightly freezes this year if they needed to worry about power or getting supplies. With last year’s storm still so fresh in everyone’s mind, I imagine the nws does not want to talk this up until it’s a sure thing

The problem with this approach is relying too much on ERCOT to correct their mistakes from last year , do you have faith in that ? I sure don’t. IMO, best to get the word out now so most can prepare way ahead of time individually instead of relying on ERCOT to adequately supply them with electricity/heat. The “probability” basis FW NWS office is using for a winter storm doesn’t make a lot of sense….we’re looking at the same output they are and it’s greater than 20% and arguably quite significantly

Lol at Government doing anything efficiently.

[TheProfessor]

I just hope it doesn’t go too far south now. Cough cough. And then it creates a Gulf low blocking moisture.

No need to worry about that right now. Let’s get the fundamentals in place. Hopefully Sunday

If it goes too far south you have insurance policy with anafront snow . The "10-15" inches showing up in the central plains.

That anafront snow maybe my only hope though. Y'all can have the TROWAL

[Ntxw]

No need to worry about that right now. Let’s get the fundamentals in place. Hopefully Sunday

If it goes too far south you have insurance policy with anafront snow . The "10-15" inches showing up in the central plains.

That anafront snow maybe my only hope though. Y'all can have the TROWAL

Can only imagine the ratios.

[bubba hotep]

Typically, all eyes are on the Pacific, but the next 48 hrs over the NATL are also critical to what happens next week across Texas. We have an explosive storm moving off the NE US, and the convection associated with that will pump latent heat. That will influence the downstream ridge and, if it is more amped up, then that will help buckle the flow. Global models handle this process pretty poorly since it is convectively driven. However, you can see the GFS trying to adjust to it with higher heights pushing northward towards Green Land. This will have upstream influences that could slow the incoming longwave trough and allow it to dig more into the SW.

https://i.ibb.co/SwYJ9JG/gfs-z500a-Norm-nhem-fh42-trend.gif

Ideally, wouldn’t we want more ridging on the EC? I mean, I get the NAO teleconnection, but some of our most persistent patterns had ridges on both coasts.

Quixotic - By the way, I was wondering when you were going to show up.

[orangeblood]

At 90hr, the 18z Euro looks like another step in the right direction. Sharper ridge into Alaska and that energy in the Pacific looks like it will get drawn into the base of the trough and not strung out like previous runs. Overall, maybe a bit slower as well.

Just that little S/W like the one off San Fran can sometimes do wonders slowing down a LW trough/peeling off energy…ICON actually picked up on it first and the rest have now followed suit

[Haris]

I just love seeing this board light up ! Cant wait to go through another week like this again. I should shut up before I jinx anything