Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

Brent, I am right there with you. That map shows an inch for my area, I will take it though!!

That does only go through Fri Morn and I think our best chance is Fri Night... but if there's an inch as close as Clanton/Montgomery I'm gonna be there. Too bad it's an outlier...

Looks to me like it'll be maybe frz rain/sleet Thu Night to rain Fri and then snow(???) Fri Night/Sat AM

[MississippiWx]

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kbtr.txt

Freezing rain and lots of it, over half an inch! I do notice that the 850mb temps are .5 above freezing. Is that what we need to dip below to give us snow? If so...very very close and maybe it will go down or occasionally change to snow. Doesn't show snow for the 2nd round of precip.

Where did you find that? What does it say for Hattiesburg?

And as far as the snowpack to the north goes, it will help to keep temperatures above the surface from moderating a whole lot, but I'm not sure it will make a whole 5 degrees difference. Models are most likely still underestimating that snowpack, but I doubt it's enough to give us what we want. What it might end up doing is causing us to stay at or below freezing longer than expected, causing a widespread and significant icing event.

And for snow formation, we need the 1000-500mb thicknesses at or below freezing. 850mb won't do the trick.

[BigB0882]

I've had that link for a while, I don't know how to get on for Hattiesburg. Do you know the nearest city code? Try changing the btr to whatever it would be, might work.

What am I looking for with the 1000-500mb thicknesses? It doesn't list temps, it lists numbers in the 500's. During the freezing rain it says the 1000-500mb thickness is going to be 551. What does that mean, what does it need to be for snow? I think I heard someone mention 540 before but not sure what 551 means, is that way off or close?

[MississippiWx]

Ha, even the 0z GFS is showing a stripe of snow from Southern MS through South Alabama and a little into Central GA.

Maybe, possibly, hopefully a good trend??

[PTrackerLA]

GFS doesn't look any colder for Thursday-Friday, if anything temps are a tad warmer for south LA. Looks like GFS shows maybe some sleet and a cold rain and NAM shows significant ice storm. We'll see what tomorrow brings!

[MississippiWx]

GFS doesn't look any colder for Thursday-Friday, if anything temps are a tad warmer for south LA. Looks like GFS shows maybe some sleet and a cold rain and NAM shows significant ice storm. We'll see what tomorrow brings!

The GFS has been the least aggressive model for wintry precip the entire time. EURO, GEMM, NAM, and others have been more aggressive. With that said, the GFS snow graphic has snow farther south, basically on top of where the NAM has it. The difference is that the GFS doesn't show it extending into Southern Louisiana or as much accumulation.

[DEEDEE911]

Forecast by the NWS for my area

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. North northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: A chance of rain before 9pm, then rain likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday: Rain likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet, becoming all rain after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 40. North northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night: A chance of rain before 9pm, then a slight chance of snow and sleet between 9pm and midnight, then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[BigB0882]

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

GFS text is just cruel for BTR. A little sleet but then an inch of rain with a steady temp of about 34 degrees. Very dangerous in that if they are off by as little as 2 degrees we will have a major ice storm. So upsetting to think we are so close to having 6 inches of snow in BTR and surrounding areas. Maybe the next big one, whenever that may be, will be for us!

[MississippiWx]

00Z Canadian still says ice storm for the Deep South:

[CYCLONE MIKE]

BigB you better go to bed and get some sleep. I have gone trough this way to many times during hurricane season. Staying up late worrying about certain models and how bad things could get etc. We still have many more runs to watch and see what the models think will happen. It will drive you crazy. Tomorrow afternoon/night should have a much clearer picture of what we can expect. Also watch those temps north and west of us tomorrow. See if they get colder than forecast with all that snow because more than likely if they we will as well.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey MSWX, what does that map show for us along and near the coast?

[BigB0882]

I know, I need to go to sleep but the problem is the models are spaced out so one is coming out every 2 hours. I keep saying...I'll go to bed after the next model runs...

Is there any way to know what else the Canadian is showing since the picture doesn't go all the way to the coast?

[MississippiWx]

You can't tell by the map, but the Canadian has been showing an ice storm from where you see it down to SW Louisiana (NW of the New Orleans area).

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well I have to get off here and get to bed. My wife thinks I'm retarded staying up this late looking at weather. Guess will see you guys in the A.M. and see what surprises are in store for us. BigB don't let us down. Keep wishing that 6-8 in of snow for us. Don't let me down. I want the maps to show it a little colder with the same amount of snow for us come tomorrow.

[BigB0882]

Night, Mike! I am off to bed too. I am going to keep wishing it, have been since I was a little kid...every once in a while it works! lol I am trying to remember the snow event we had back in Dec of 2008. I think both the GFS and NAM were on board with that one, probably the Euro as well. I wish the others would jump on but Euro and GFS don't want to play. I still can't figure out why the NAM snowfall map shows around 3 inches but the text output shows only some sleet and freezing rain. I keep telling myself to hug onto that NAM snowmap as tight as I can and refuse to let go, haha! Best of luck to all of us tomorrow and here is to some AMAZING trends in our direction!

[Ntxw]

NAM sounding for Baton Rouge (surround areas too) supports freezing rain/sleet/and cold rain. The snow map is a bit skewed. Kind of like what happened here this morning. NAM/GFS had 3+ inches of snow on the map but it was mostly sleet.

Wxcaster/earl's page has better maps imo.

[Kennethb]

AFDs running late again here in South Louisiana, as this is a challenging forecast. If this forecast for Baton Rouge pans out, it will have been since 1973 that we have seen this type of episode. Still there is a lot to occur for this to take place, though confidence is increasing a little. Will high clouds set in an keep us cool and dewpoints low? And can preciptation start late tonight or will it take a little longer on Thursday to start. Will be interesting to see how this pans out.

IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE
401 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET OR
LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY SLEET AND ICE
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

[Dean4Storms]

Dean, where at in miramar are you? I have a little beach house on payne st. Just up from pompano joe's.

I'm in Bayside Subdivision behind Silver Sands Outlet.

[Ivanhater]

Well Well

06Z GFS





06Z Nam

[Ivanhater]

Uh oh

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
406 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011

VALID 12Z WED FEB 02 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 05 2011


...DAY 2 ...

...MS/LA...
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENTS SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN MS AND CENTRAL LA WITH ICING POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY TO THE
LA GULF COAST IN SOUTHWEST LA/ADJACENT UPPER TX COAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REINFORCES
SHALLOW COLD AIR. THE WARM AIR EXTENDS FROM 875 TO 700 MB OVER
THE AREA AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING BOTH WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS FCST....SUPPORTING A MDT RISK OF ICING
WHERE BELOW FREEZING SFC TEMPS PERSIST DURING THE PRECIPITATION.
MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE NAM/GFS/SREF MEAN QPF AND THERMAL
PROFILES. THERE ARE WEST-EAST DIFFERENCES AS TO WHERE THE AXIS OF
FREEZING RAIN SETS UP WITH THE 00-06Z NAM EAST OF THE 21Z SREF/00Z
GFS...AND THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AXIS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GROUP OF
SOLUTIONS.