Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

Euro in the mid to upper teens Sunday morning when the GFS CMC Icon have single digits lol highs around freezing

Absolutely zero precip

I see some coming in at Hour 180



ETA: And it falls apart at Hour 192 before picking back up again at 198

[Iceresistance]

0z ICON has Highs Below Zero not out of the question down to I-40!

[Brent]

Another winter storm basically 200 hours out

[Ntxw]

The King my friends. Might trend back warm tomorrow who knows!

[Cerlin]

Based on the last 24 hours of model guidance, I think outside of potential freezing drizzle overnight Wednesday, the best shot for NTX to get any wintry weather is gonna come the Daytona 500 weekend. Despite operational guidance being less confident, a whole host of Ensembles support precipitation around that timeframe.

00z Canadian Ensemble for 5 days (from thursday to tuesday)


00z GEFS for 4 days:

[Ntxw]

Based on the last 24 hours of model guidance, I think outside of potential freezing drizzle overnight Wednesday, the best shot for NTX to get any wintry weather is gonna come the Daytona 500 weekend. Despite operational guidance being less confident, a whole host of Ensembles support precipitation around that timeframe.

00z Canadian Ensemble for 5 days (from thursday to tuesday)
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_120hr/1612742400/1613498400-TEjhKmGLalo.png

00z GEFS for 4 days:
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_96hr_inch/1612742400/1613498400-zjWaaQCpEFU.png

We can't even get consistent temperatures out of the guidance (except for the GFS not budging) so how can we expect them to get any ripples right for precipitation? A lot hangs on the cold too, the colder it gets the easier it will get to snow if there is a passing disturbance. Albeit light.

[Iceresistance]

Last Post before going to bed

0z GFS calling for a few winter storms this week


Snowfall (24-hour Kuchera Ratio)


Also, 0z GEFS is going crazy with several Ensembles calling for a LOT of snow (Mean Snowfall is 3 inches in DFW & 6-7 inches in OKC)

[Cpv17]

Well the Euro still isn’t overly impressive like the other models but it took a huge step in the right direction.

[South Texas Storms]

6z GFS is very cold. Looks like we are slowly coming to a model consensus on an extended period of very cold conditions arriving later this week and persisting into early next week.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the 18Z GFS that caused panic was just a typical 18Z GFS and not the start of a trend. The straight westward building trough at 500mb is not how the atmosphere works in North America. I am sticking with a blend of the ICON and GFS for my forecast as they have been largely consistent. Looks like the cold builds from 40s for highs mid week to 20s for highs over the weekend with lows in the single digits north of I-20 with sub zero temps on NW TX. The ripples will be nearly impossible to pin down, but some light frozen mixed precip seems likely late this week with snow being more likely this weekend and into next week. Looks a lot like 2011 but maybe colder. Has Texas had this sort of extended cold this late before? I don't recall it, most historical outbreaks have been in Dec or Jan with 2011 being early Feb.

[Cpv17]

What’s the 6z Euro saying?

[Iceresistance]

I'm under a Winter Weather Advisory for Freezing Drizzle until 4 PM, the arctic air is farther south than expected.

[Ntxw]

6z GFS went crazy like the ICON. Has DFW at 1F, Austin in the singles and Houston in the teens.

At some point it has to buckle right? Surely it can't keep forecasting these kind of low temps? It's only fitting at the GFS eventually flips to warm with heat bias?

[cajungal]

6z GFS went crazy like the ICON. Has DFW at 1F, Austin in the singles and Houston in the teens.

At some point it has to buckle right? Surely it can't keep forecasting these kind of low temps? It's only fitting at the GFS eventually flips to warm with heat bias?

Of course this has to happen for vacation. Going to San Antonio next Monday. And don’t see how I can walk the riverwalk with 2 kids in temps like this. Plus having to worry about pipes back home. (SE Louisiana)

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 in OKC put out this forecast . . .

[3090]

I'm under a Winter Weather Advisory for Freezing Drizzle until 4 PM, the arctic air is farther south than expected.

Where are you generally located?

[bubba hotep]

6z GFS went crazy like the ICON. Has DFW at 1F, Austin in the singles and Houston in the teens.

At some point it has to buckle right? Surely it can't keep forecasting these kind of low temps? It's only fitting at the GFS eventually flips to warm with heat bias?

Extreme events typically give the models fits and that would be pushing Top 5 coldest temp at DFW. (Given our current warmer background state... This would be an exceedingly rare event) Also, that run keeps DFW below 20 for 48hrs+

[Iceresistance]

6z GEFS Ensembles



Personal Favorites are Members 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10, 12, (13 was close), 18, 19, & 20

(11 is a another Austin, TX snowstorm)

[Iceresistance]

I'm under a Winter Weather Advisory for Freezing Drizzle until 4 PM, the arctic air is farther south than expected.

Where are you generally located?

Central Oklahoma, I'm in Pott. County in Tecumseh, OK. (Where all observations are taken there unless otherwise noted.)

[Ntxw]

6z GFS went crazy like the ICON. Has DFW at 1F, Austin in the singles and Houston in the teens.

At some point it has to buckle right? Surely it can't keep forecasting these kind of low temps? It's only fitting at the GFS eventually flips to warm with heat bias?

Extreme events typically give the models fits and that would be pushing Top 5 coldest temp at DFW. (Given our current warmer background state... This would be an exceedingly rare event) Also, that run keeps DFW below 20 for 48hrs+

I've never seen so many models do this for more than a few panels in the digital era. But yeah the extreme option is still on the table. It's exceedingly cold in the Northern US right now and even more so in Southern Canada. It's sitting there waiting for the dam to break. Even if you take all the models and blend them together, take a conservative route you're still looking at low to mid teens for lows and 20s for highs.

This kind of blocking doesn't happen often to drive that much cold. I can only think of Jan 1985 (that was original idea) where it wasn't completely EPO drive. But Wednesday or Thursday when the severe cold starts moving then we will know if we're about to feel it.