Texas Winter 2016-2017

[SouthernMet]

Has anyone compared the accuracy rates between the GFS Op and the Parallel? Just curious short/med/long range how it is doing since it may become operational in May.

Believe it or not, the GFS Para has been very accurate thus far and was the only model to accurately hold together the DFW snowband from Friday.

[Ntxw]

Shallow, sharp front on Friday, 70s ahead 30s and 40s behind it. 850s are warm, shallow air mass

[Ntxw]

Dfw stays above freeing, cold rain in the 30s, icing north and west

[Brent]

GFS is very wet like the Euro. Widespread 2-4" already Sunday and still raining

[SouthernMet]

12z CMC on board, .6"+ ice accumulation for Fort Worth.





http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=zr_acc&rh=2017010812&fh=174&r=us_sc&dpdt=

[bubba hotep]

GFS is very wet like the Euro. Widespread 2-4" already Sunday and still raining

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_31.png

I'll take that. Lots of rain for areas that need it.

[Brent]

We do need a good soaking and in one of the driest months, January too! Looks like there'd be close to 4 days of rain if the models are right.

Have to admit if the storm is that wet/widespread(icy or not), reminds me more of el nino than la nina...

[TexasF6]

The air temps in North Asia are potent & powerfully cold. -50--60s for lows last night in some spots. If the Cross polar flow gets going, snowpack will limit modification as the air pours down the plains. Bears Watching.

[hriverajr]

12z GFS could be another big run.

Not quite as strong and extensive with the freezing rain.. but in general same trend continues.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS could be another big run.

Not quite as strong and extensive with the freezing rain.. but in general same trend continues.

At first, I honestly thought the system was one of those erroneous cut off lows the euro likes to create in the long range and hang back and poof. Surprised the other guidance went there.

[CentralTxAggie]

14 here last night

[Brent]

Euro just looks like a lot of rain in DFW, maybe not quite as wet as the gfs though

[weatherdude1108]

I put a faucet cover on outdoor faucet in front (north facing on house by garage), also covered in a wrapped towel on Thursday night. I took off towel and faucet cover this morning. Faucet would not budge. Poured hot water on it. Faucet moved, but no water coming out. Turned off faucet. Poured hot water again, still nothing. After about a minute, finally water comes out.

So much for a cover AND towel over faucet.:/ Next time I guess I'll let it drip all night.

Weather service said this was the strongest cold front in nearly six years. I believe it!

[Cpv17]

Looks like the SE ridge is gonna confine most of the cold towards the western half of Texas.

[Texas Snow]

Yep, GFS 18z has freezing precip is closer to a Bowie to Brownwood line than a Dallas to Austin line. That is becoming a trend it seems, although the next parallel will be interesting to see if it follows the others west,

[Portastorm]

Yep, GFS 18z has freezing precip is closer to a Bowie to Brownwood line than a Dallas to Austin line. That is becoming a trend it seems, although the next parallel will be interesting to see if it follows the others west,

Looking more closely, it looks like a Langtry-Brownwood-Sherman line. Everything west and north of that appears to have freezing precip. Everything east/south, a chilly rain.

[bubba hotep]

The trends have been towards a faster PVA and a slower H5 trough in the SW.

[aggiecutter]

Be forewarned, the models do a poor job of handling low level cold air.

[Texas Snow]

Be forewarned, the models do a poor job of handling low level cold air.

That's what I was thinking when looking at the tight temp gradients across the above mentioned line. The denser air may have something to say about where that line sets up. We'll see...

[Brent]

Models were way too warm this weekend too another reason I'm not gonna let my eyes off this one. It easily could be a chilly rain for days too but it's too early to say for sure