Texas Winter 2016-2017

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3461 Postby Snowman67 » Sun Jan 08, 2017 7:29 pm

aggiecutter wrote:Be forewarned, the models do a poor job of handling low level cold air.


Exhibit A - This last cold front.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3462 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 08, 2017 7:31 pm

While the models were too warm with this last front, the pattern is a little different though. Severe -EPO really drove the air mass, no such block this go round. Doesn't mean it won't get colder than modeled with the kind of air mass though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3463 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:02 pm

Brent wrote:Models were way too warm this weekend too another reason I'm not gonna let my eyes off this one. It easily could be a chilly rain for days too but it's too early to say for sure

NO CHILLY RAINS ALLOWED IN SE TX till Sunday! We have a gender reveal party at a farm near Bellville Saturday afternoon!! After that have at it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3464 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:26 pm

Our local mets have brought up the discussion of freezing rain and ice for this weekend. NOAA also has a 60% of freezing rain starting Friday night and ended Sunday morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3465 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:20 pm

GFS looks like flooding could be a story... has a heavy band over the metroplex next weekend. The ice storm is further away this run.

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Last edited by Brent on Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3466 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:24 pm

Brent wrote:GFS looks like flooding could be a story... has a heavy band over the metroplex next weekend. The ice storm is further away this run.
No ice this weekend?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3467 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:24 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:GFS looks like flooding could be a story... has a heavy band over the metroplex next weekend. The ice storm is further away this run.
No ice this weekend?


Not on today's runs... just a cold rain. The ice storm is more like Oklahoma City/Wichita Falls and points west
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3468 Postby OKMet83 » Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:27 pm

IMO from a professional standpoint... We will see model fluctuations from run to run it's a given however the model consistency of showing a MAJOR Winter Storm across the SRN plains has been there..
We've had many runs of the GFS, EURO AND CMC showing this over the past several days including down into portions of WRN , NRN TX... I wouldn't take much stock in anyone run right now just watch the trends.
For example: The 00z tonight keeps the cold air NW OF I-44 the entire wkend (I'm taking this with a grain of salt until I see more runs doing this )

Regardless I think this system has Moderate to High potential to be a very significant system for someone in the Southern plains starting Friday through the weekend.. So remain calm my friends let's see how things look Tuesday into Wednesday!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3469 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:43 pm

7 to 8" of rain in DFW for areas east of I35 on this GFS run. The return flow starts tomorrow and PWAT will be pushing record values with this system.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3470 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:58 pm

bubba hotep wrote:7 to 8" of rain in DFW for areas east of I35 on this GFS run. The return flow starts tomorrow and PWAT will be pushing record values with this system.


Wettest January ever might be in danger if the GFS is right... the top 10 list on the NWS site is "unavaliable" but apparently 2012 was up there with 6" of rain...
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3471 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:58 pm

bubba hotep wrote:7 to 8" of rain in DFW for areas east of I35 on this GFS run. The return flow starts tomorrow and PWAT will be pushing record values with this system.
That is a lot of rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3472 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:10 am

The CMC has over 3" of freezing rain in a wide swath of OK including OKC.

Yeah that wasn't an error... a cold rain doesn't seem so bad now.

Euro about 3" of rain at DFW

but at OKC over 4 inches of rain and almost all of it is freezing rain :double: The saving grace is the temps are barely cold enough and do warm barely above freezing for a time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3473 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:49 am

starsfan65 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:7 to 8" of rain in DFW for areas east of I35 on this GFS run. The return flow starts tomorrow and PWAT will be pushing record values with this system.
That is a lot of rain.


Houston says "pfft, come spend late Spring with us!"
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3474 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:41 am

I have emerged from hibernation. I hope you've all had enough of this winter nonsense. Looking forward to nice warm southerly winds all this week, and possibly through next weekend. However, I don't trust that sneaky cold air. Even though the models are now stalling the front well to my north, cold air tends to move southward regardless of the upper-level winds. Models often get that wrong. Let's hope not, in this case.

Lowest temperature I saw on my thermometer Saturday was about 22 - and that's on my front porch. My bananas are now dead. So much for the bunch of bananas that was nearly ripe. They're black now. Have to cut all of them down and let them start over.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3475 Postby Snowman67 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:48 am

wxman57 wrote:I have emerged from hibernation. I hope you've all had enough of this winter nonsense. Looking forward to nice warm southerly winds all this week, and possibly through next weekend. However, I don't trust that sneaky cold air. Even though the models are now stalling the front well to my north, cold air tends to move southward regardless of the upper-level winds. Models often get that wrong. Let's hope not, in this case.

Lowest temperature I saw on my thermometer Saturday was about 22 - and that's on my front porch. My bananas are now dead. So much for the bunch of bananas that was nearly ripe. They're black now. Have to cut all of them down and let them start over.


When is the last time it got that cold at your place?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3476 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:58 am

Re: This weekends storm and location of winter weather: the location of the HP in the Midwest is key to where the freezing line sets up, the issue that I'm seeing on the models is the Ozark Shadow - Down slope, down wind which is south/southwest of the Ozarks. This would mean locations in southeastern Oklahoma and the southeast half of Texas might have a difficult time getting cold enough for frozen precip. You can clearly see this depiction on the models and is something I noticed with several events last winter. IMO - To increase wintry weather chances for more Texas residents, the HP needs to be further south and west than currently forecast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3477 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:06 am

Image

By the end of the workweek, the weather pattern will become
unsettled once again as a split flow regime develops over the
CONUS. In the northern stream, a progressive upper level trough
will transition east along the U.S./Canada border Thursday into
Friday. This will send a modified arctic airmass southward
through the Central and Southern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level
low in the southern stream will be deepening over the southwestern
states. This feature will be slow-moving and likely bring
widespread precipitation chances to North and Central Texas
Friday through the weekend.

The good news is that the most recent model runs have been less
aggressive on the southward push of cold air, which will limit
the potential of winter weather. That said, we will continue to
indicate a wintry mix in the northwest counties Saturday
night/Sunday morning where temperatures may still fall below
freezing.

The bad news is that after the the surface front enters from the
northwest Thursday night/Friday morning, it has a good chance of
stalling over the immediate forecast area for a good chunk of the
weekend. The tandem of the quasi-stationary front and the upper
low out west could possibly result in several rounds of moderate
to heavy rain. Models are detecting significant moisture pooling
along the boundary, resulting in PWAT forecasts in excess of 1.5
inches (around 3 standard deviations above normal for January).
Instability will be marginal but certainly enough for at least
isolated thunder along and ahead of the front. Being that it is
still several days out, we won`t try to get too specific on
rainfall amounts as there will likely be adjustments in the
forecasts as we head through the week (a lot of which will hinge
on the position of the front).

The main message is that the holiday weekend will likely be a wet
one with the potential for localized flooding. An additional
concern will be for northwest counties where some wintry
precipitation is still a possibility. Either way, the system will
gradually shift east across Texas with precipitation ending from
west to east on or shortly after MLK Day.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3478 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:11 am

Snowman67 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I have emerged from hibernation. I hope you've all had enough of this winter nonsense. Looking forward to nice warm southerly winds all this week, and possibly through next weekend. However, I don't trust that sneaky cold air. Even though the models are now stalling the front well to my north, cold air tends to move southward regardless of the upper-level winds. Models often get that wrong. Let's hope not, in this case.

Lowest temperature I saw on my thermometer Saturday was about 22 - and that's on my front porch. My bananas are now dead. So much for the bunch of bananas that was nearly ripe. They're black now. Have to cut all of them down and let them start over.


When is the last time it got that cold at your place?


I don't remember, I try to forget such things. Maybe 5-6 years ago? Perhaps longer.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3479 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:17 am

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
444 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-092230-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
Including the cities of...Buffalo...Laverne...Alva...Cherokee...
Helena...Carmen...Medford...Pond Creek...Lamont...Wakita...
Ponca City...Blackwell...Shattuck...Arnett...Gage...Fargo...
Woodward...Fairview...Enid...Perry...Cheyenne...Hammon...
Seiling...Vici...Taloga...Leedey...Weatherford...Clinton...
Watonga...Geary...Okeene...Kingfisher...Hennessey...Okarche...
Guthrie...Stillwater...Elk City...Sayre...Cordell...Burns Flat...
Sentinel...Anadarko...Hinton...Yukon...Concho...El Reno...
Mustang...Oklahoma City...Chandler...Stroud...Prague...Meeker...
Davenport...Wellston...Chickasha...Tuttle...Purcell...Newcastle...
Blanchard...Norman...Moore...Shawnee...Seminole...Wewoka...
Holdenville...Wetumka...Hollis...Mangum...Granite...Hobart...
Snyder...Altus...Frederick...Lawton...Duncan...Pauls Valley...
Lindsay...Wynnewood...Sulphur...Davis...Ada...Coalgate...
Walters...Temple...Waurika...Ringling...Ryan...Ardmore...
Tishomingo...Atoka...Marietta...Thackerville...Madill...
Kingston...Durant...Quanah...Crowell...Vernon...Sheppard AFB...
Wichita Falls...Munday...Knox City...Seymour...Archer City...
Holliday...Lakeside City...Scotland...Henrietta
444 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

...Dangerous Winter Storm Possible Friday into Sunday...

A slow moving storm system will affect the southern Plains Friday
into Sunday, bringing heavy amounts of precipitation to the
region. A wintry mix of primarily rain and freezing rain is
expected across the area. Some sleet and snow may also be
possible across northern and western parts of Oklahoma. Exact
precipitation types, amounts, and locations remain uncertain at
this time.

What we know at this time:

* Significant ice accumulations over 0.25 inches will be possible
for portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

* Snow and sleet accumulations could occur in western and
northern Oklahoma in addition to any ice accumulations.

* Flooding may result due to heavy rainfall across portions of
south central and southeastern Oklahoma.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel conditions will be likely. Power
outages may result from heavy ice accumulations.

What can you do now?

* Stay up to date with the latest forecasts, check back frequently
for updates.

* If you are traveling this weekend, be prepared to change your
plans and make sure you have a safety kit in your car, such as a
blanket, water, a flashlight, and nonperishable food.

* Be prepared if you lose power, make sure you have flashlights,
extra batteries, food, and your cell phone charged.

$$

Scotten/Kurtz
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3480 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:22 am

Anyone have analog(s) to this system? Can't seem to remember this set up, most HP positions is to the N or NW
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