aggiecutter wrote:Be forewarned, the models do a poor job of handling low level cold air.
Exhibit A - This last cold front.
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aggiecutter wrote:Be forewarned, the models do a poor job of handling low level cold air.
Brent wrote:Models were way too warm this weekend too another reason I'm not gonna let my eyes off this one. It easily could be a chilly rain for days too but it's too early to say for sure
No ice this weekend?Brent wrote:GFS looks like flooding could be a story... has a heavy band over the metroplex next weekend. The ice storm is further away this run.
starsfan65 wrote:No ice this weekend?Brent wrote:GFS looks like flooding could be a story... has a heavy band over the metroplex next weekend. The ice storm is further away this run.
bubba hotep wrote:7 to 8" of rain in DFW for areas east of I35 on this GFS run. The return flow starts tomorrow and PWAT will be pushing record values with this system.
That is a lot of rain.bubba hotep wrote:7 to 8" of rain in DFW for areas east of I35 on this GFS run. The return flow starts tomorrow and PWAT will be pushing record values with this system.
starsfan65 wrote:That is a lot of rain.bubba hotep wrote:7 to 8" of rain in DFW for areas east of I35 on this GFS run. The return flow starts tomorrow and PWAT will be pushing record values with this system.
wxman57 wrote:I have emerged from hibernation. I hope you've all had enough of this winter nonsense. Looking forward to nice warm southerly winds all this week, and possibly through next weekend. However, I don't trust that sneaky cold air. Even though the models are now stalling the front well to my north, cold air tends to move southward regardless of the upper-level winds. Models often get that wrong. Let's hope not, in this case.
Lowest temperature I saw on my thermometer Saturday was about 22 - and that's on my front porch. My bananas are now dead. So much for the bunch of bananas that was nearly ripe. They're black now. Have to cut all of them down and let them start over.
By the end of the workweek, the weather pattern will become
unsettled once again as a split flow regime develops over the
CONUS. In the northern stream, a progressive upper level trough
will transition east along the U.S./Canada border Thursday into
Friday. This will send a modified arctic airmass southward
through the Central and Southern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level
low in the southern stream will be deepening over the southwestern
states. This feature will be slow-moving and likely bring
widespread precipitation chances to North and Central Texas
Friday through the weekend.
The good news is that the most recent model runs have been less
aggressive on the southward push of cold air, which will limit
the potential of winter weather. That said, we will continue to
indicate a wintry mix in the northwest counties Saturday
night/Sunday morning where temperatures may still fall below
freezing.
The bad news is that after the the surface front enters from the
northwest Thursday night/Friday morning, it has a good chance of
stalling over the immediate forecast area for a good chunk of the
weekend. The tandem of the quasi-stationary front and the upper
low out west could possibly result in several rounds of moderate
to heavy rain. Models are detecting significant moisture pooling
along the boundary, resulting in PWAT forecasts in excess of 1.5
inches (around 3 standard deviations above normal for January).
Instability will be marginal but certainly enough for at least
isolated thunder along and ahead of the front. Being that it is
still several days out, we won`t try to get too specific on
rainfall amounts as there will likely be adjustments in the
forecasts as we head through the week (a lot of which will hinge
on the position of the front).
The main message is that the holiday weekend will likely be a wet
one with the potential for localized flooding. An additional
concern will be for northwest counties where some wintry
precipitation is still a possibility. Either way, the system will
gradually shift east across Texas with precipitation ending from
west to east on or shortly after MLK Day.
Snowman67 wrote:wxman57 wrote:I have emerged from hibernation. I hope you've all had enough of this winter nonsense. Looking forward to nice warm southerly winds all this week, and possibly through next weekend. However, I don't trust that sneaky cold air. Even though the models are now stalling the front well to my north, cold air tends to move southward regardless of the upper-level winds. Models often get that wrong. Let's hope not, in this case.
Lowest temperature I saw on my thermometer Saturday was about 22 - and that's on my front porch. My bananas are now dead. So much for the bunch of bananas that was nearly ripe. They're black now. Have to cut all of them down and let them start over.
When is the last time it got that cold at your place?
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