Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Cerlin]

To be honest, I don’t expect any significant change to the models. Sure, this intrusion of arctic air is moving much quicker than anticipated but I’m not sure this really changes much for North Texas other than some cooler temperatures today and tomorrow. That being said, the NAM was much better suited for the front than the globals today—keep an eye on it as we move towards the big event.

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON +3 hours vs actual observations from NWS-Norman

[rwfromkansas]

Wow, cold again. This seesaw. Lol. With some more nowcasting going on, it is getting cold up north quickly. Won't take much for that to plow south. Very interesting pattern regardless of what ultimately happens (unless it just really torches, then I will be pissed, but don't see that with temps this cold already dropping down).

[Iceresistance]

Wow, cold again. This seesaw. Lol. With some more nowcasting going on, it is getting cold up north quickly. Won't take much for that to plow south. Very interesting pattern regardless of what ultimately happens (unless it just really torches, then I will be pissed, but don't see that with temps this cold already dropping down).

I doubt it will torch, the AO is already sinking like crazy!

[Ntxw]

To be honest, I don’t expect any significant change to the models. Sure, this intrusion of arctic air is moving much quicker than anticipated but I’m not sure this really changes much for North Texas other than some cooler temperatures today and tomorrow. That being said, the NAM was much better suited for the front than the globals today—keep an eye on it as we move towards the big event.

Picking on the Euro run yesterday that got everyone in panic button mode. It's just the power of heavy, dense, cold air bullying the upper flow.

OKC is closer to 25 than Alva is. And had them warming to 40s...not gonna happen.

[TropicalTundra]

Just turned freezing in Vernon, Texas, northwest of Wichita Falls.

[Cerlin]

To be honest, I don’t expect any significant change to the models. Sure, this intrusion of arctic air is moving much quicker than anticipated but I’m not sure this really changes much for North Texas other than some cooler temperatures today and tomorrow. That being said, the NAM was much better suited for the front than the globals today—keep an eye on it as we move towards the big event.

Picking on the Euro run yesterday that got everyone in panic button mode. It's just the power of heavy, dense, cold air bullying the upper flow.

OKC is closer to 25 than Alva is. And had them warming to 40s...not gonna happen.

https://i.imgur.com/xILeGxe.png

I should’ve added a qualifier statement—with the exception to the Euro!

I think more so what I was trying to say was the speed of this front won’t really have too much influence on the power of the larger airmass later in the week. All that’s likely is to change is the lowering of temperatures for the next couple days with models moving towards a more general solution more akin to the GFS/NAM, and not drastically shifting even colder.

[Iceresistance]

Just turned freezing in Vernon, Texas, northwest of Wichita Falls.

Snow has been reported in Shawnee, OK (I don't see any snow, but I know it's coming)

[Ntxw]

:bathroom:

To be honest, I don’t expect any significant change to the models. Sure, this intrusion of arctic air is moving much quicker than anticipated but I’m not sure this really changes much for North Texas other than some cooler temperatures today and tomorrow. That being said, the NAM was much better suited for the front than the globals today—keep an eye on it as we move towards the big event.

Picking on the Euro run yesterday that got everyone in panic button mode. It's just the power of heavy, dense, cold air bullying the upper flow.

OKC is closer to 25 than Alva is. And had them warming to 40s...not gonna happen.

https://i.imgur.com/xILeGxe.png

I should’ve added a qualifier statement—with the exception to the Euro!

I think more so what I was trying to say was the speed of this front won’t really have too much influence on the power of the larger airmass later in the week. All that’s likely is to change is the lowering of temperatures for the next couple days with models moving towards a more general solution more akin to the GFS/NAM, and not drastically shifting even colder.

I got you!

There are slight implications on Thursday when there is a bout of light precip that may (or may not make it) somewhere. It's different when Thursday is 25 like the ICON is vs 35 on the NAM or 45 on the latest Euro? That's a forecast span of 20 degrees, what do you say putting out a forecast? It's infuriating.

[Iceresistance]

Another Forecast from News 9 (Same one as from 6:20 AM, as shown here.)

They are playing it safe right now because most of the data is MUCH COLDER THAN FORECASTED!

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON has trended warmer than 0z, but I'm thinking that the model is being more realistic . . .

[Ntxw]

12z ICON has trended warmer than 0z, but I'm thinking that the model is being more realistic . . .

Considering it was trying for historic lows. The orientation of the TPV, wobble and how it handles west coast is slightly different.

[Iceresistance]

Snow reported in Shawnee, OK again . . .

[orangeblood]

Looking at the entire Northern Hemisphere (probably World), the Southern Plains are in the cross-hairs ladies and gentlemen!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Just turned freezing in Vernon, Texas, northwest of Wichita Falls.

I’m roughly 45 min away from Vernon. It’ll be interesting to see when it hits here.

[dhweather]

That 06Z GFS run was chilly.

[orangeblood]

Really nice snowstorm for the southern 2/3rds of the state 1 week from now on the ICON....

[wxman57]

I seem to have lost my control of the Canadian model overnight. Now it has an ice storm for Houston with highs Mon/Tue in the low to mid 20s. One thing I notice is that the trend for the past 2 days is for a more westward and southward placement of the big high center. That means they're now starting to see the Arctic air moving south rather than east. Faster, too. Still, nothing like 1983 or 1989, but Houston could easily see highs below 30F for 2-3 days Sun-Tue. This kind of cold, and likely ice, could cause millions if not billions of dollars in damage. Many could be without power for weeks. I'm hoping the Euro verifies. Lack of a deep snow pack to the north may help the air to modify more quickly s it moves down the Plains.

[Rgv20]

I have a feeling the 12zGFS wants to drop the Arctic hammer....has a nice 500mb look at 78 hours.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, thru 102 hours, the 12z GFS is faster and colder than the 6z and 0z runs.