Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Jarodm12]

Yes, however forgive me for asking, but they are showing snow in the point forecast at Durant in Oklahoma and from the nws discussion:

WE HAVE INTRODUCED SNOW WORDING IN FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE...THAT WE
NORMALLY LIKE TO SEE LEADING INTO WINTER WEATHER EVENTS OVER OUR
REGION...THE ANOMALOUS INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSE FOR
CONCERN. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING...LATENT HEAT OF MELTING...AND
FORMATION OF TROWAL LATE TUESDAY WILL LEAD US TO MENTION AT LEAST
A CHANCE FOR SNOW NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 IN OKLAHOMA. GREATER
IMPACTS LIKELY WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE
TROWAL BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND DRIER LOWER LEVEL AIR IS
TAPPED. MODEL TRENDS OF COOLER COLUMN AND LOWERING WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS CANNOT BE IGNORED. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW

So the nam showing snow will it be snowing under the intense bands, will Durant be at 32 degrees they are suggesting snow at 38? i am not trying to be contrary I just want to understand why the Nam is showing snow on the maps, that earlier it wasn't, and also that Oklahoma is seeing a potential just north of me?

[wxman57]

Yes, however forgive me for asking, but they are showing snow in the point forecast at Durant in Oklahoma and from the nws discussion:

So the nam showing snow will it be snowing under the intense bands, will Durant be at 32 degrees they are suggesting snow at 38? i am not trying to be contrary I just want to understand why the Nam is showing snow on the maps, that earlier it wasn't, and also that Oklahoma is seeing a potential just north of me?

There will be a chance of snow falling into the above-freezing air north of Dallas-Ft. Worth (up by the Red River). It will melt as it hits the ground, so accumulations are unlikely.

Snow forms well above the surface, where temperatures are below freezing. Sometimes, the air at the surface is above freezing, so the snow melts as it reaches the ground. It's possible for snow to reach the surface with temps in the 40s or even the lower 50s, if the warm air at the surface is shallow enough.

[Jarodm12]

So what your saying is we could see SNOW that it's in the realm of possibility,I'm kidding. Thank you for the explaination with such a strong system maybe a surprise will happen where I am who knows fingers crossed

[wxman57]

So what your saying is we could see SNOW that it's in the realm of possibility,I'm kidding. Thank you for the explaination with such a strong system maybe a surprise will happen where I am who knows fingers crossed

If you're north of Dallas-Ft Worth then you could see some snowflakes, but they won't hang around long.

[TexasSam]

I haven't made a comment on here in years it seems, but here goes... Have I been reading this right that the winds here (Baytown) are going to be gusting to 45MPH Tuesday night? Guess I need to put things away in the back yard so they don't blow away!

[Tireman4]

From HGX AFD


AXIS OF STEADY, BENEFICIAL, RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF SE
TX WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IT SHOULD DIMINISH
IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOSES ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OUT THE REGION.

EYES TURN TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS POTENT UPPER STORM SYSTEM
DIGS INTO TX. SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OUT WEST AND TRACK EASTWARD
AND JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. IT`LL PUSH A
PREFRONTAL TROF & COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION DURING THE DAY WHICH
SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOT OF WIND ENERGY WITH IT. STRONG LLVL JET IN ADVANCE, VEERING
PROFILE AND INCOMING LFQ OF JET SHOULD AID IN INCREASING SHRA/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT THRU EARLY AFTN HOURS TUE.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANY VARIETY OF SEVERE WX WITH THIS SYSTEM - ISOLATED
TORNADOES, WIND DAMAGE FROM BOWING SEGMENTS, & HAIL WILL ALL BE
POSSIBILITIES IN THE STRONGER CELLS. SE TX LOOKS TO BE THE INITIATING
PLACE FOR AN EVENTUAL SEVERE WX EVENT THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE ALONG
THE CNTL GULF COAST FROM LA INTO FL.

AFTER THE WX MOVES OUT DURING EARLY AFTN HOURS...WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW & COLD FRONT. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 50 MPH...SO 30-40 MPH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NW ARE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE INLAND (AND HIGHER
OFFSHORE) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...AND JUST
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY.

SPEEDS SHOULD WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURS. HIGH PRES WILL
DOMINATE AREA WX INTO THE WEEKEND KEEP THINGS DRY. 47

ONLY ISSUES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY SEA FOG AS A LIGHT ON-
SHORE FLOW PREVAILS. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN LIMITED FOR LOCATIONS
IN/AROUND THE BAY/NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CHANGES
IN THE WX PATTERN WILL BE FORTHCOMING TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT (MOVING INTO SE TX) WILL HELP TO INCREASE S/SWLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS BY TUES AFTN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...ALONG WITH A GALE WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE MARINE ZONES FOR TUES NIGHT AS VERY STRONG/GUSTY N/NW DEVEL-
OP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE GALE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED
TO A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THIS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
COULD ALSO AFFECT TIDE LEVELS AROUND THE BAYS. LOW WATER ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS/SEAS ARE FCST TO BEGIN DE-
CREASING BY WEDS EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BACK UNTIL THE WEEKEND. 41

AVIATION...
THE SLIGHTLY DECREASED S WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC SEEMS TO BE HELP-
ING TO KEEP CIGS LOW TONIGHT (FOR AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RAIN). THIS
LINE OF SHRA (GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NRN HALF OF SE TX)
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF I-10 TODAY. THIS COULD MAKE FOR SOME
TRICKY TAFS FOR CLL/UTS/CXO/IAH TODAY. OTHERWISE WILL EXPECT SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS FROM THE LIFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING FOR THE OTHER TAFS
BY THIS AFTN. SEA FOG WILL REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE FOR GLS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. LOOKING AHEAD...MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE TSRA FOR CLL/UTS
STARTING AOA 23/06Z AS THE SECOND STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES. 41


FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS & LOW RH`S ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUE
AFTN-WED. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WILL BE THAT
MAJORITY OF GROUNDS SHOULD BE WET FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS OUT TOWARD
MATAGORDA BAY WHO ARE FCST TO RECEIVE THE LEAST AMOUNT BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. 47

[TeamPlayersBlue]

994 MB Low at the surface in East Texas, whens the last time we had a low that deep in the winter time here? Excited for something to happen nonetheless

[wxman57]

I haven't made a comment on here in years it seems, but here goes... Have I been reading this right that the winds here (Baytown) are going to be gusting to 45MPH Tuesday night? Guess I need to put things away in the back yard so they don't blow away!

Yes, it will be quite windy tomorrow evening across east and southeast Texas. Sustained winds in the 25-30 mph range with gusts above 40 mph. No extremely cold temps post-frontal, only mid 40s to upper 50s Wednesday and low 40s to 60s on Thursday.

[TheProfessor]

Whoever gets right underneath the low might get lucky in North/Northeast Texas, 18z Nam is showing 850s below 0 and it has a narrow band of surface temps around 35-34 degrees just to the NW of the low. Of course it is the Nam, but typically the Nam is pretty good within 40 hours.

[Jarodm12]

Wxman

Brother check out the 18z nam so if the 00z nam continues to trend this direction do we issue advisory's and warnings?

Brother can you show me some evidence models aren't trending towards a stronger and deeper low pressure, thus ushering in more cold air equating toward accumulations in the Dallas area ? Should we throw out the nam (would that be equivalent with throwing the baby out with the bath water? Which model is right? And why?) what is your analysis what's happening here?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =71&ypos=0

[TheProfessor]

Wxman

Brother check out the 18z nam so if the 00z nam continues to trend this direction do we issue advisory's and warnings?

Brother can you show me some evidence models aren't trending towards a stronger and deeper low pressure, thus ushering in more cold air equating toward accumulations in the Dallas area ? Should we throw out the nam (would that be equivalent with throwing the baby out with the bath water? Which model is right? And why?) what is your analysis what's happening here?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =71&ypos=0

If, and it's a BIG IF any advisories were to occur it would be a last minute sorta deal, IF any snow were to fall it would be confide to a very small area where dynamic cooling occurs. Accumulations likely would be very small due to warm ground temperatures and they would be around the red river if they were to occur. I haven't checked skew-ts on the 18z Nam and the 925 level might be above freezing that would melt any snow before it hits the surface.

[Ntxw]

It depends how much the cold air aloft can work its way down. It could happen with very heavy qpf via supercooled rain drops if the air column is sufficiently cold and deep enough as well as mentioned by wxman if the lower warmth is shallow. No doubt this is a powerful deepening system above our heads loaded with both lift and moisture.

There isn't strong cold air advection at the surface so it will be heavily dependent on upper dynamics as well as heavy qpf beneath the trowal

[Jarodm12]

ok, just north and east of Wylie? i mean clearly the trend is towards a stronger low and a slower low, what do you think about my area just based on the Nam, are all bets off with a system like this do we really just have to watch radar and temperature trends to know?( basically that is what you are saying), otherwise we have to take this model with a grain of salt, and just say perhaps but not likely, to err on the side of caution? am i wrong?

[wxman57]

The 18Z NAM IS more bullish on the snow potential north of the D-FW area on Tuesday. Note that the skew-T (bottom graphic) now has temps below freezing at the surface as well as aloft. Mid-30s in the D-FW area, though, during the precip. Not an impossibility to see a snowflake in D-FW, though - based on the NAM.

Note that the 12Z Euro trended close to the 18Z NAM. It's forecasting up to an inch of snow north of the D-FW area tomorrow. Bullseye is a little south of the Red River. The 00Z run kept the snow up in Oklahoma. Snow accumulations are north of Wylie, TX in both models, but you're pretty close.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That graph looks like snow. The trend is your friend.

[Jarodm12]

The 18Z NAM IS more bullish on the snow potential north of the D-FW area on Tuesday. Note that the skew-T (bottom graphic) now has temps below freezing at the surface as well as aloft. Mid-30s in the D-FW area, though, during the precip. Not an impossibility to see a snowflake in D-FW, though - based on the NAM.

Note that the 12Z Euro trended close to the 18Z NAM. It's forecasting up to an inch of snow north of the D-FW area tomorrow. Bullseye is a little south of the Red River. The 00Z run kept the snow up in Oklahoma. Snow accumulations are north of Wylie, TX in both models, but you're pretty close.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png

Thank you very much sir and for your time, i guess we await the 00z model data if it trends further along with the 6z its a go? and of course the HRRR model, i wanted to ask you whats your professional feel of this storm and my area essentially im asking your tea leaves opinion based on experience. once again thank you for your time responding to me ridiculous questions that i honestly ought to know by now

[Brent]

I'm still not feeling real snow potential in the metroplex..
Maybe I'll be wrong but I feel like any snow of consequence anyway would be localized and brief.

Surface temps are gonna be a big problem

[wxman57]

I'm still not feeling real snow potential in the metroplex..
Maybe I'll be wrong but I feel like any snow of consequence anyway would be localized and brief.

Surface temps are gonna be a big problem

It does look like surface temps there will be above freezing, as with several other recent events. However, the temps aloft may be colder, with the freezing line a little lower this time. It's not out of the question that you might see a few flakes fall then quickly melt.

[Ralph's Weather]

The GFS looks much like the NAM besides low level temps below 850mb which it has significantly warmer. The NAM is usually better at temps especially on a fine scale so I tend to lean toward it. That said I expect some snow to mix in along the I-20 and accumulation along and norh of I-30.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Meanwhile on my front porch in Richardaon...