Texas Winter 2024-2025

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS looks pretty good for DFW and points NE. Once again, a degree or two will be the difference between a mix and some big snow totals.

[orangeblood]

To really illustrate how difficult and volatile forecasting this event is.....check out the ranges of snow outputs on the Euro Ensembles. A cluster of 8-10" members along with a cluster of 2-6" members. Wild!

To illustrate what models are struggling with, one of the best visuals is the temperature cross section over time. It's those little pockets of dark purple shading in the 800-900 hPa levels Thursday/Friday that's causing all of the issues resolving this. IMHO at this time, the forecasted warm pockets just don't look warm enough to change over to rain at DFW. Sometimes the algos are worthless in situations like this, software programming can only take you so far.

[snownado]

Maybe a good sign of future model runs to come, but 18z HRRR is also notably cooler through 13z at 850mb...

Gotta grasp at any straws we can, lol...

[snownado]

Maybe a good sign of future model runs to come, but 18z HRRR is also notably cooler through 13z at 850mb...

Gotta grasp at any straws we can, lol...

0*C 850mb line settles all the way down to Austin on a mostly E-W orientation through 18z Thursday.

Again, tiny grain of salt...

[orangeblood]

Latest longer range HRRR much colder in the upper levels for North Texas than the mornings run...here are the transition zones at noon on Thursday according to this, aligns with the Euro Ops and the FW NWS office

[WinterMax]

Will have a big fat warm nose here in S central Louisiana, wasted miserable rainy cold. I am excited for all of you in North Central and Northeast Texas. Hope you get hammered with snow !!

[wxman22]

Good trends on the 18z HRRR it shows the same disturbance that the WRF and RGEM show Thursday morning.

[orangeblood]

Maybe a good sign of future model runs to come, but 18z HRRR is also notably cooler through 13z at 850mb...

Gotta grasp at any straws we can, lol...

You aren't grasping, it's much colder throughout

[snownado]

Maybe a good sign of future model runs to come, but 18z HRRR is also notably cooler through 13z at 850mb...

Gotta grasp at any straws we can, lol...

You aren't grasping, it's much colder throughout

True, but it is only 1 model for now.

[orangeblood]

Maybe a good sign of future model runs to come, but 18z HRRR is also notably cooler through 13z at 850mb...

Gotta grasp at any straws we can, lol...

You aren't grasping, it's much colder throughout

True, but it is only 1 model for now.

SREF mean now trending much colder as well from earlier

[cheezyWXguy]

You aren't grasping, it's much colder throughout

True, but it is only 1 model for now.

SREF mean now trending much colder as well from earlier

https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/sref-all-mean-tx-total_snow_10to1-1736262000-1736553600-1736553600-20.gif

Don’t do this man, don’t give me hope

[HockeyTx82]

I question whether the apocalyptic snow forecasts for major metropolitan areas are strategically deployed by the large grocery and hardware store industry complex to boost sales through fear-mongering, leveraging social media influence, and benefiting from associated kickbacks.

[Ralph's Weather]

To really illustrate how difficult and volatile forecasting this event is.....check out the ranges of snow outputs on the Euro Ensembles. A cluster of 8-10" members along with a cluster of 2-6" members. Wild!

To illustrate what models are struggling with, one of the best visuals is the temperature cross section over time. It's those little pockets of dark purple shading in the 800-900 hPa levels Thursday/Friday that's causing all of the issues resolving this. IMHO at this time, the forecasted warm pockets just don't look warm enough to change over to rain at DFW. Sometimes the algos are worthless in situations like this, software programming can only take you so far.

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/plume_snow/1736251200/1736251200-u7kKetxTM9o.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KDFW/cross_section_full/1736251200/1736251200-mxFTnBGcopA.png

This is what I am seeing for E TX also but likely even more volatile. The low end models runs today have people distracted from the absolutely extreme boom potential of this event. The best models still show high end potential. SREF which tends to be conservative even has 12" probabilities showing. COD shows all frozen as snow and it has 12" for my house, just highlighting that if temps run a bit cold then extreme amounts are possible.

[snownado]

You aren't grasping, it's much colder throughout

True, but it is only 1 model for now.

SREF mean now trending much colder as well from earlier

https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/sref-all-mean-tx-total_snow_10to1-1736262000-1736553600-1736553600-20.gif

Those WeatherBell maps must be sleet contaminated, because this is what Pivotal Weather shows....

[cheezyWXguy]

I question whether the apocalyptic snow forecasts for major metropolitan areas are strategically deployed by the large grocery and hardware store industry complex to boost sales through fear-mongering, leveraging social media influence, and benefiting from associated kickbacks.

I think it’s Big Firewood

[Ralph's Weather]

True, but it is only 1 model for now.

SREF mean now trending much colder as well from earlier

https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/sref-all-mean-tx-total_snow_10to1-1736262000-1736553600-1736553600-20.gif

Those WeatherBell maps must be sleet contaminated, because this is what PivotalWeather shows....

https://i.ibb.co/4mVJ93Q/sn10-acc-mean-imp-us-sc.png

Pivotal is showing a lot of precip to fall as rain which does not match the temp profiles on the models.

[HockeyTx82]

I question whether the apocalyptic snow forecasts for major metropolitan areas are strategically deployed by the large grocery and hardware store industry complex to boost sales through fear-mongering, leveraging social media influence, and benefiting from associated kickbacks.

I think it’s Big Firewood

Oh man I left them off my list. I tried.

That or I intentionally left them off because I'm part of Big Firewood and I didn't want to throw them under the bus.......

[orangeblood]

True, but it is only 1 model for now.

SREF mean now trending much colder as well from earlier

https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/sref-all-mean-tx-total_snow_10to1-1736262000-1736553600-1736553600-20.gif

Those WeatherBell maps must be sleet contaminated, because this is what Pivotal Weather shows....

https://i.ibb.co/4mVJ93Q/sn10-acc-mean-imp-us-sc.png

Just highlighting the trend, not necessarily the amounts...we won't really know that until real time.

[snownado]

SREF mean now trending much colder as well from earlier

https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/sref-all-mean-tx-total_snow_10to1-1736262000-1736553600-1736553600-20.gif

Those WeatherBell maps must be sleet contaminated, because this is what PivotalWeather shows....

https://i.ibb.co/4mVJ93Q/sn10-acc-mean-imp-us-sc.png

Pivotal is showing a lot of precip to fall as rain which does not match the temp profiles on the models.

That's why I suspect those WeatherBell maps aren't accounting for mixed/liquid precipitation.

It's a pretty common issue in these marginal setups.

[bubba hotep]

Through 30hrs, it looks like the 18z is correcting towards the other models.