Texas Winter 2025-2026

[rwfromkansas]

ICON, what are you doing?

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkKDw.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkKDw.gif

I would think this would warm things up even more, right?

[BAY29]

18z ICON looks like through hour 54 thats its holding the baja low back a little more SW

What does that mean for SE Texas

[cstrunk]

Latest update from NWS Shreveport on the Winter Storm Watch:


137 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Storm total snow and
sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are anticipated with areas of
up to 5 inches possible, particularly near and north of I-30. Ice
accumulations between one quarter and three quarters of an inch
are expected, with localized accumulations of up to or exceeding 1
inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Arkansas, north
central and northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, and east and
northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice.
Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact
the Friday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains,
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing.
Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help
you survive in case you become stranded.

[Iceresistance]

I forgot to ask/mention this, but don't the models tend to overestimate the warm nose in winter weather events?

[Quixotic]

So right now this looks like… the Super Bowl storm but more? Or 2003 but colder?

If that big band of snow comes through here it will be a hybrid of the two. I got more snow than sleet in 2011.

[Steve]

18z ICON looks like through hour 54 thats its holding the baja low back a little more SW

What does that mean for SE Texas

The one on Tidbits doesn't differentiate between rain and ice - just rain and snow. The 540 height line doesn't get all that far south, but the temperatures are cold. Here's hour 90 which is valid for 6am Sunday morning CST. Note that it shows significant rain/precip:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2118&fh=90

Also note the temperatures at the same time (6am Sunday).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2118&fh=90

All the rain it shows is out of SE TX by noon. However it gets the temperatures down to freezing at least by just after midnight. Presumably, if they had the graphics for it, ice/sleet, cold rain and freezing rain for several hours then letting up in the morning. Don't trust it yet.

[wxman57]

I'm still curious on the Euro's freezing rain depictions, model? Site algorithm? Most of the other guidance is a sleet-fest at the onset mostly. Good test subject.

The Euro is having a hard time with the cold air. I would not trust it at all today.

[Ntxw]

I forgot to ask/mention this, but don't the models tend to overestimate the warm nose in winter weather events?

You need a warm nose in some form of fashion for moisture transport. That's what overruning precipitation is, warm moist air going over cooler air below. Higher the QPF involved the warmer the moisture transport from a tropics and subtropics that's just physics. There's a Goldilocks zone somewhere around maybe a quarter inch to 3/4 in of QPF where it's just enough to not overwhelm but not too little where is dry. Just a basic layman's, there's a lot more nuances involved at the upper levels. Can they overestimate yes that means the model is too wet and the colder surface wins vice versa.

[bubba hotep]

Cooling trend has been engaged on the 18z NAMs

[hurricane2025]

I'm still curious on the Euro's freezing rain depictions, model? Site algorithm? Most of the other guidance is a sleet-fest at the onset mostly. Good test subject.

The Euro is having a hard time with the cold air. I would not trust it at all today.

I’m a euro guy but why isn’t having such a hard time with th cold air mass

[Tireman4]

I'm still curious on the Euro's freezing rain depictions, model? Site algorithm? Most of the other guidance is a sleet-fest at the onset mostly. Good test subject.

The Euro is having a hard time with the cold air. I would not trust it at all today.

The Space City Weather guys seem to be relying on it. Interesting. They are pro mets and I am not...

[Texas Snow]

I’ve never watched this guy before, but myradar app gave me a video push, so I said why not

For those of you that have said that you don’t quite fully understand some of what is being said here, I think this explains things like “phasing” well, but in layman’s terms.

Note: it’s not a specific texas forecast with who is going to to get what and how much, but I think some folks might find it helpful as a basis for understanding what folks here are talking about on the models.

https://myradar.com/videos/6341

[rwfromkansas]

I’ve never watched this guy before, but myradar app gave me a video push, so I said why not

For those of you that have said that you don’t quite fully understand some of what is being said here, I think this explains things like “phasing” well, but in layman’s terms.

Note: it’s not a specific texas forecast with who is going to to get what and how much, but I think some folks might find it helpful as a basis for understanding what folks here are talking about on the models.

https://myradar.com/videos/6341

Matt has my dream job. Basically, a weather educator/forecaster and basically does his own thing while working for companies. Jealous of him lol.

He does a really good job of explaining things in ways that are understandable. I took one weather class in college but the textbook was just hard to understand!

[dhweather]

Boy that looks eerily familiar.

[cheezyWXguy]

NAM seems to be catching onto the faster frontal push, I imagine the globals will struggle to keep up. Icon sometimes handles this better than the gfs and euro, but not always. Looking forward to how recon data affects the 0z suite tonight

[Brent]

I forgot to ask/mention this, but don't the models tend to overestimate the warm nose in winter weather events?

You need a warm nose in some form of fashion for moisture transport. That's what overruning precipitation is, warm moist air going over cooler air below. Higher the QPF involved the warmer the moisture transport from a tropics and subtropics that's just physics. There's a Goldilocks zone somewhere around maybe a quarter inch to 3/4 in of QPF where it's just enough to not overwhelm but not too little where is dry. Just a basic layman's, there's a lot more nuances involved at the upper levels. Can they overestimate yes that means the model is too wet and the colder surface wins vice versa.

I distinctly remember when I went to Kansas City last year for their blizzard there was a lot of talk about a mix and a sharp cutoff on the south side of the city even the night before even in that setup(it actually caused me to go to the north side for the peak just in case). I actually had a weather friend who was messaging me worried I didn't go far enough north

It didn't happen... Just throwing that out there

[Ralph's Weather]

Nice to be in range of hi res finally. NAM and others seem a bit faster with surface freeze line as well as 850mb front. Nothing massive but positive trends. As we have known key is how stout is the warm nose. Hoping recon tonight will help to clear that up some by tomorrow mornings runs.

[Haris]

Yall have to root for the slow deep 18z gfs

[Ntxw]

Think we will like the 18z GFS a little more.

[txtwister78]

18z GFS continues to push cold on the back end of the upper level trough which again makes sense with how these behave coming out and therfore brings your sleet and ice further south and transitions to snow across DFW. Nice burst of moderate to heavy snow perhaps across the DFW metro.