Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

TigerCraig · #3501 Postby **TigerCraig** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:46 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
240 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND ENDURING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.VERY COLD SURFACE BASED ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WIND ENERGY IN THE JET
STREAM ALOFT WILL WORK IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND ENDURING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALZ051>062-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-030445-
/O.NEW.KMOB.WW.Y.0002.110203T0000Z-110204T0000Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-
STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...
MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
240 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY.

VERY COLD SURFACE BASED ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WIND ENERGY IN THE JET
STREAM ALOFT WILL WORK IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND ENDURING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN SOME REPORTS OF
SLEET AROUND THE REGION. THIS SAME AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL FURTHER EXPAND
OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A
PERIOD OF SLEET LATE TONIGHT OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES TO BE APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PERKINSTON
MISSISSIPPI TO CITRONELLE...APPLETON...ANDALUSIA AND BRANTLEY
IN ALABAMA.

WE MUST EMPHASIZE THE NWS EXPECTS THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN
AS SLEET AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION RATES ARE STILL EXPECTED
AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL ENDURE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. UP TO
ROUGHLY FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL
COULD OCCUR...AND THIS WILL CREATE A LIGHT TO MODERATE GLAZE ACCRUAL
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SLEET
IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AND BEFORE IT CHANGES
TO FREEZING RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN MEANS THAT LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR IN A TWELVE HOUR
PERIOD AND THIS WILL ACT TO CREATE A LIGHT TO MODERATE FROZEN GLAZE
ON EXPOSED OBJECTS...PARTICULARLY METAL OBJECTS...BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. THIS MAY BRING DOWN LIMBS ON TREES.

PTrackerLA · #3502 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:47 pm

Weather.com shows a high of only 33 tomorrow with off and on freezing rain through Friday...

#3503 Postby **BigB0882** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:50 pm

They have Baton Rouge at a high of 34. As we well know, they can easily be wrong on high temps by 2 degrees or more. Interesting couple of days ahead.

My local station, for what it is worth, had us as a high of 43 today (lol) and tomorrow a high of 40. I think it is 36 right now and probably as high as it gets. Let's say, for arguments sake, it gets to 38. Off by 5 degrees. Curious to see if they change the high on tonight's broadcast. I can't blame them too much though, they are very honest and say they don't quite know how to forecast the cold, haha

PTrackerLA · #3504 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:53 pm

I've had a few reports from friends in New Orleans and the west bank of snow flurries coming down.

SunnyThoughts · #3505 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:54 pm

Here in P'cola suppose to have near steady temps in the mid 40's today... its 38

#3506 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:56 pm

NWS Mobile/Pensacola updated...Now has sleet forecast for Pensacola

Tonight: A slight chance of rain and sleet before midnight, then a slight chance of rain between midnight and 3am, then a slight chance of rain and sleet after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Rain and sleet likely, becoming all rain after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 41. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

#3507 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:58 pm

Sleeting in downtown New Orleans per my brother.

TideJoe · #3508 Postby **TideJoe** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:58 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Here in P'cola suppose to have near steady temps in the mid 40's today... its 38

We were supposed to see the 40s but it's 36 now. Some sleet, flurries have been seen off and on.

southerngale · #3509 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:59 pm

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#3510 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:59 pm

Here we go!

SunnyThoughts · #3511 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:00 pm

So using my wonderful logic, last time we had sleet when the forecast was only rain, maybe this time when they are actually forecasting sleet...we'll get snow. lolol Im grasping at straws, I know. Fun times anyway... everybody stay safe and warm, be careful driving...could get slippery out there late tonight.

CYCLONE MIKE · #3512 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:00 pm

Hi all. Finally getting a chance to check back in. I see BigB is still at it trying her best to bring us some winter weather

Not sure what to think right now. I see our forecast has been upgraded to a 80% chance of mix this afternoon with a high of 40. Don't see that happpening. High so far today at my house is 33 at almost 3 oclock. The rest of forecast looks the same as this morning cold and rain. We are between weather advisories as well. TX has winter storm watches up and to the east in AL/FL winter wx advisories are up. HPC still is giving us a high chance at seeing some freezing rain and sleet. Sure would like to know if the temps are going to run 8-10 degrees colder tomorrow as they did last night and today? Seems we are right on the line and no one wants to pull the trigger yet. Guess they are waiting til the very last minute hoping the models latch on to the temps and then will know if we will get rain or ice.

#3513 Postby **BigB0882** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:06 pm

I'm a he! lol I probably confused you by mentioning my boyfriend but that would be because I am gay. haha Little off topic but just in case anyone else was confused!

I never went to the store. Maybe later. Anyone else bother to stock up? I don't feel like getting too much because we should thaw out quickly friday.

Metalicwx220 · #3514 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:10 pm

Holy god we have snow in the forecast Next thursday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rain
Hi 49° RealFeel® 41° Day
Thursday
NNW at 9 mph
Gusts: 26 mph
Colder with rain, beginning after temperatures rise above freezing
Max UV Index: 3 (moderate)
Thunderstorm Probability: 0%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.12 in
Amount of Rain: 0.12 in
Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
Amount of Ice: 0.00 in
Hours of Precipitation: 2 hrs
Hours of Rain: 2 hrs
Rain & Snow
Lo 25° RealFeel® 6° Night

NNW at 18 mph
Gusts: 32 mph
Windy and very cold with periods of snow and rain Max UV Index: N/A
Thunderstorm Probability: 31%Amount of Precipitation: 0.00 in
Amount of Rain: 0.01 in
Amount of Snow: 0.1 in
Amount of Ice: 0.00 in
Hours of Precipitation: 2 hrs
Hours of Rain: 1 hrs

timmeister · #3515 Postby **timmeister** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:11 pm

Lots of frozen precip showing up on the radar.

CYCLONE MIKE · #3516 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:14 pm

Sorry B, don't hold it against me. Guess thats what I get for assuming :oops:

I'm not going to worry about stocking up. If anything all the DOTD will do is shut down 10 and 12 at all the overpasses. Most all other roads should remain open. Remember a snow on new years 8 years ago or so in BTR. I was living on east side of town and had to go to work in south BTR. Had 2-3 inches of snow. Not one road was closed except the I-110 which is elevated.

Metalicwx220 · #3517 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:16 pm

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LMAO :uarrow:

#3518 Postby **BigB0882** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:18 pm

Just for sh*ts and giggles, look at the discrepancy in the forecasts:

Baton Rouge projected highs for Thur (2/3)

Weather.com - 34
Accuweather - 45
WAFB (local) - 38
WBRZ (local) - 40 (they called for 45 today)

Accuweather is just a joke. I'm throwing it out completely.

Metalicwx220 · #3519 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:20 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Just for sh*ts and giggles, look at the discrepancy in the forecasts:

Baton Rouge projected highs for Thur (2/3)

Weather.com - 34
Accuweather - 45
WAFB (local) - 38
WBRZ (local) - 40 (they called for 45 today)

Accuweather is just a joke. I'm throwing it out completely.

Is that tomorrow?

#3520 Postby **BigB0882** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:21 pm

Metalicwx220 wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Just for sh*ts and giggles, look at the discrepancy in the forecasts:

Baton Rouge projected highs for Thur (2/3)

Weather.com - 34
Accuweather - 45
WAFB (local) - 38
WBRZ (local) - 40 (they called for 45 today)

Accuweather is just a joke. I'm throwing it out completely.

Is that tomorrow?

Yes, that is for tomorrow.

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