Texas Winter 2010-2011

[iorange55]

It continues to show a big winter storm for the panhandle and oklahoma. Somehow though even with a 1044mb coming down the real cold manages to hold at the red river for a day or two.


We'll see.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

And the GFS backs off again...at least early.

not surprised by this, lets see what the Euro and CMC think.

[Portastorm]

And the GFS backs off again...at least early.

Really? What do you mean by backing off?

I'm looking at the 500mb maps for 12z Tuesday and it looks to me like the trajectory coming out of the Northern Plains and Western Canada is a bit more north-to-south and direct into the Southern Plains. As well, the upper level energy is a bit less progressive than the 0z run. Seems to me to be even a bit more promising for winter weather for Texas than the 0z run.

[iorange55]

And the GFS backs off again...at least early.

Really? What do you mean by backing off?

I'm looking at the 500mb maps for 12z Tuesday and it looks to me like the trajectory coming out of the Northern Plains and Western Canada is a bit more north-to-south and direct into the Southern Plains. As well, the upper level energy is a bit less progressive than the 0z run. Seems to me to be even a bit more promising for winter weather for Texas than the 0z run.

Yeah it looks almost the same as the other runs to me. maybe a bit more moisture. Still frustrating to see all those beautiful lines just stay in place.

[Portastorm]

Hey, I'll defer to txagwxman's judgment as he's a pro and I'm not ... but to me, it looks like a classic overruning type event for much of Texas.

[iorange55]

From 126hr





to the 150hr



Hardly moves.

[srainhoutx]

Common error of the GFS (and other models as well) holding shallow cold air masses too far N. We've seen this so many times through the years, it's not funny. Look at the upper flow (500/700/300) All indications are pointing to a push straight S of that air mass, IMO. Edit to add: Look how long the GFS keeps that air in place. Friday I see, through hour 180.

[CaptinCrunch]

GFS didn't back off, it just didn't see things correctly

[Rgv20]

Look at the Upper Air Pattern (500mb) the cold air is not going to stop at the Red River..........And it looks like most of texas is going to be stuck with clouds.

[Portastorm]

Look at the Upper Air Pattern (500mb) the cold air is not going to stop at the Red River..........And it looks like most of texas is going to be stuck with clouds.

Exactly! The GFS will blow it when it comes to the temps because it always underestimates Arctic airmasses. The key here is the 500mb flow. If that upper-level disturbance lags out west like the 12z shows to some degree ... we'll see light precip mainly for an extended period with some embedded shortwaves which would enhance the precip. Seen this happen a number of times over the years.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[orangeblood]

Look at the Upper Air Pattern (500mb) the cold air is not going to stop at the Red River..........And it looks like most of texas is going to be stuck with clouds.

Exactly! The GFS will blow it when it comes to the temps because it always underestimates Arctic airmasses. The key here is the 500mb flow. If that upper-level disturbance lags out west like the 12z shows to some degree ... we'll see light precip mainly for an extended period with some embedded shortwaves which would enhance the precip. Seen this happen a number of times over the years.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yea, someone is going to get a nasty ice storm out of this, with sleet/snow to the north of that line. Where o where will that line be????

[txagwxman]

And the GFS backs off again...at least early.

Really? What do you mean by backing off?

I'm looking at the 500mb maps for 12z Tuesday and it looks to me like the trajectory coming out of the Northern Plains and Western Canada is a bit more north-to-south and direct into the Southern Plains. As well, the upper level energy is a bit less progressive than the 0z run. Seems to me to be even a bit more promising for winter weather for Texas than the 0z run.

I was looking at Tuesday...it is all OK on Tuesday not DFW.

It is probably wrong anyway...can't wait to see the new GEM.

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian (GEM) is cold with a 1050mb high near the Northern Rockies building S.

[orangeblood]

12Z Canadian a little further north, storm moving across the red river, but still bitterly cold after the storm moves by to the northeast. Someone is going to get a ton of snow and ice with this storm.

[txagwxman]

Yea but not in Texas...more in OK on the latest Canadian.

[srainhoutx]

An interesting thing that the Canadian suggests is something the Euro ensembles suggested yesterday. That is a vort or Upper Level feature will break off the Polar Vortex elongating that feature to the SW. We may need to keep an eye on that trend and see if it continues.

[Ntxw]

Interesting this morning. Canadian wants to phase with northern stream. Onto the Euro!

[Portastorm]

HPC this morning in their analysis threw out the Ukie and Canadian idea of a more potent, progressive low and preferred a sheared system leaving energy behind (and to our west). But, as you'll see below, they also said it's a "low confidence" forecast right now.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
903 AM EST THU JAN 27 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 31 2011 - 12Z THU FEB 03 2011

BROKEN FIBER OPTIC CABLE LIMITED MODEL AVAILIBILITY THIS MORNING
AT TIME OF PRODUCT ISSUANCE. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES OF THE PAST
TWO DAYS CONCERNED THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROF AXIS AND DELIVERY OF
COLD AIR INTO CONUS WITH GFS SHUNTING MORE COLD AIR EASTWARD WITH
ITS EASTWARD ORIENTED TROF AXIS WHILE ECMWF DROVE ITS TROF AXIS
CONSIDERABLY MORE WEST. THIS WAS RESOLVED BY THE USE OF LAGGED
AVERAGE FORECASTS WHICH WERE CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF ENS MEAN. TODAYS
RUNS ARE SHOWING A CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
WITH A SUPRESSION BY THE ECMWF OF ITS DEEP SFC INVERTED TROF IN
THE MS VALLEY WHILE GFS HAS YIELDED ITS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ALLOWING MORE SFC LOW TO COME OUT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
LATE PERIOD. AT THE MID LEVELS GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER TODAY
LEAVING BEHIND A LINGERING POSITIVELY TILTED TROF OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST WHILE TAKING THE MAIN TROF EAST DRIVING COLD
AIR SOUTH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ERN CONUS.

CMC AND UKMET BRING OUT THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AS A AGRETER WHOLE
ENTITY RESULTING IN DEEP CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

LAGGED AVERAGES FOR THE ECMWF ARE UNAVAILABLE. THE GFS ENS MEAN
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD FIRST GUESS SOLUTION WITH REASONABLE CONTINUITY
FROM PRIOR HPC SOLUTIONS AND A REASONABLE CONVERGENCE SOLUTION
BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS IS THE MORNING HPC SOLUTION
FOR TODAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW WILL LEAVE A SWATH OF LT SNOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AND SFC ONSHORE LOW WILL BREAK OUT RAIN ACROSS TX
AND LA AND WORK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO MID WEEK.
SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST SUNDAY
WILL MOVE EASTWARD EITHER COMING OUT BODILY AS PER CMC AND UKMET
INDUCING A STRONG LOWER MS VALLEY LOW OR COME OUT SHEARED LEAVING
BEHIND A CONSIDERABLE TROF AXIS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
LATTER SOLUTION PREFERRED AT THIS TIME BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
CONFIDENCE. THIS SOLUTION WILL BRING A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WED.
THIS SOLUTION HAS A THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER TUES
TO THURSDAY ACROSS NR TX TO OK AND UP THE CENTRAL MS AND OH
VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLC REGIONS AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST WITH THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE NORTHWARD WITH RAIN SOUTH.
ROSENSTEIN

[txagwxman]

HPC this morning in their analysis threw out the Ukie and Canadian idea of a more potent, progressive low and preferred a sheared system leaving energy behind (and to our west). But, as you'll see below, they also said it's a "low confidence" forecast right now.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
903 AM EST THU JAN 27 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 31 2011 - 12Z THU FEB 03 2011

BROKEN FIBER OPTIC CABLE LIMITED MODEL AVAILIBILITY THIS MORNING
AT TIME OF PRODUCT ISSUANCE. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES OF THE PAST
TWO DAYS CONCERNED THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROF AXIS AND DELIVERY OF
COLD AIR INTO CONUS WITH GFS SHUNTING MORE COLD AIR EASTWARD WITH
ITS EASTWARD ORIENTED TROF AXIS WHILE ECMWF DROVE ITS TROF AXIS
CONSIDERABLY MORE WEST. THIS WAS RESOLVED BY THE USE OF LAGGED
AVERAGE FORECASTS WHICH WERE CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF ENS MEAN. TODAYS
RUNS ARE SHOWING A CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
WITH A SUPRESSION BY THE ECMWF OF ITS DEEP SFC INVERTED TROF IN
THE MS VALLEY WHILE GFS HAS YIELDED ITS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ALLOWING MORE SFC LOW TO COME OUT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
LATE PERIOD. AT THE MID LEVELS GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER TODAY
LEAVING BEHIND A LINGERING POSITIVELY TILTED TROF OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST WHILE TAKING THE MAIN TROF EAST DRIVING COLD
AIR SOUTH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ERN CONUS.

CMC AND UKMET BRING OUT THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AS A AGRETER WHOLE
ENTITY RESULTING IN DEEP CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

LAGGED AVERAGES FOR THE ECMWF ARE UNAVAILABLE. THE GFS ENS MEAN
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD FIRST GUESS SOLUTION WITH REASONABLE CONTINUITY
FROM PRIOR HPC SOLUTIONS AND A REASONABLE CONVERGENCE SOLUTION
BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS IS THE MORNING HPC SOLUTION
FOR TODAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW WILL LEAVE A SWATH OF LT SNOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AND SFC ONSHORE LOW WILL BREAK OUT RAIN ACROSS TX
AND LA AND WORK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO MID WEEK.
SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST SUNDAY
WILL MOVE EASTWARD EITHER COMING OUT BODILY AS PER CMC AND UKMET
INDUCING A STRONG LOWER MS VALLEY LOW OR COME OUT SHEARED LEAVING
BEHIND A CONSIDERABLE TROF AXIS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
LATTER SOLUTION PREFERRED AT THIS TIME BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
CONFIDENCE. THIS SOLUTION WILL BRING A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WED.
THIS SOLUTION HAS A THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER TUES
TO THURSDAY ACROSS NR TX TO OK AND UP THE CENTRAL MS AND OH
VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLC REGIONS AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST WITH THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE NORTHWARD WITH RAIN SOUTH.
ROSENSTEIN

Funny because 12z Canadian went more towards the UKMET. ECMWF should provide more insight.

[Ntxw]

Often times there are references to the "southern plains" in posts. What is considered the "southern plains" in relation to weather discussions?

Texas/Oklahoma mostly, sometimes adjacent areas such as southern Kansas, SW Missouri, Western Arkansas.