Texas Winter 2020-2021

[mcallum177]

If these temps verify this is extremely dangerous, even worse than 110 in the summer I'd imagine. Our population isn't prepared for this for sure. I know our own apartment complex has horrid insulation, I'm not even sure dripping our faucets would mitigate below 0 temps so I'm seriously concerned about a pipe busting flood situation at our place.

[orangeblood]

If these temps verify this is extremely dangerous, even worse than 110 in the summer I'd imagine. Our population isn't prepared for this for sure. I know our own apartment complex has horrid insulation, I'm not even sure dripping our faucets would mitigate below 0 temps so I'm seriously concerned about a pipe busting flood situation at our place.

Yep, prep starts now...CMC coming in just as cold! However, it's going to take snow on the ground to get them that low...precip is still much more uncertain

[Ntxw]

At the same time GFS has parts of North Texas below 0, Canadian has near 0.

[rwfromkansas]

It looks like my exterior faucet spigot covers will actually be needed for once. May need to check the attic. Think our insulation is good, but may be worth checking...

[Ntxw]

At what point do we start looking at these extremely low temps as a legit possibility?

Believe it or not the outer perimeter of the Arctic air is on our doorstep right now. Even in the coldest of "modelology" we have never seen so many models and model runs like this leading up to an event (discarding 300+ hour GFS runs). Even if you take a conservative view you are still easily comparing it to the largest outbreaks of the past 20 years. At minimum it's an extended period of much below normal and below freezing.

[orangeblood]

At what point do we start looking at these extremely low temps as a legit possibility?

Believe it or not the outer perimeter of the Arctic air is on our doorstep right now. Even in the coldest of "modelology" we have never seen so many models and model runs like this leading up to an event (discarding 300+ hour GFS runs). Even if you take a conservative view you are still easily comparing it to the largest outbreaks of the past 20 years. At minimum it's an extended period of much below normal and below freezing.

RE: precip chances, Looking over the latest GEFS, there's decent potential for 3 upper level disturbances rotating through the base of this PV across the southern plains over the next week...Thursday, Saturday and early next week

[Ntxw]

At what point do we start looking at these extremely low temps as a legit possibility?

Believe it or not the outer perimeter of the Arctic air is on our doorstep right now. Even in the coldest of "modelology" we have never seen so many models and model runs like this leading up to an event (discarding 300+ hour GFS runs). Even if you take a conservative view you are still easily comparing it to the largest outbreaks of the past 20 years. At minimum it's an extended period of much below normal and below freezing.

RE: precip chances, Looking over the latest GEFS, there's decent potential for 3 upper level disturbances rotating through the base of this PV across the southern plains over the next week...Thursday, Saturday and early next week

SW flow aloft has never wavered after trending a few days ago. The only difference is the models are resolving up north and seeing the reality of the cold air in place moving with some help from HP. Even when there isn't a big storm, there could be ripples within the southward PVa causing light snow etc. It's not going to be stuck in Kansas but rather clearing Mexico.

[TropicalTundra]

Looks like this cold air is just west of Wichita Falls, looks to be pushing through Abilene right now. Is this farther ahead than schedule?

[orangeblood]

Believe it or not the outer perimeter of the Arctic air is on our doorstep right now. Even in the coldest of "modelology" we have never seen so many models and model runs like this leading up to an event (discarding 300+ hour GFS runs). Even if you take a conservative view you are still easily comparing it to the largest outbreaks of the past 20 years. At minimum it's an extended period of much below normal and below freezing.

RE: precip chances, Looking over the latest GEFS, there's decent potential for 3 upper level disturbances rotating through the base of this PV across the southern plains over the next week...Thursday, Saturday and early next week

SW flow aloft has never wavered after trending a few days ago. The only difference is the models are resolving up north and seeing the reality of the cold air in place moving with some help from HP. Even when there isn't a big storm, there could be ripples within the southward PVa causing light snow etc. It's not going to be stuck in Kansas but rather clearing Mexico.

Yep, it won't take much to squeeze moisture out in that type environment....GFS has 210 hrs of below freezing for DFW

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS Still calling for NASTY cold Temperatures & Winter Storms



Radar (Rain/Ice/Sleet/Snow)



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

[Yukon Cornelius]

Temps have dropped 8 degrees up here in the last 30 min.

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET also with the Arctic Hammer....Will be interesting to read the NWS Forecast Discussions from around Texas.

Valentines Morning

[Iceresistance]

12zUKMET also with the Arctic Hammer....Will be interesting to read the NWS Forecast Discussions from around Texas.

Valentines Morning

12z UKMET also calling for some snow in Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas Tuesday thru Thursday

[Ntxw]

12zUKMET also with the Arctic Hammer....Will be interesting to read the NWS Forecast Discussions from around Texas.

Valentines Morning
https://i.imgur.com/Y7u9bLw.png

Low 20s for highs on Saturday. Friday is below freezing for DFW. Considering generally it is a conservative model.

[Ntxw]

12zUKMET also with the Arctic Hammer....Will be interesting to read the NWS Forecast Discussions from around Texas.

Valentines Morning
https://i.imgur.com/Y7u9bLw.png

Low 20s for highs on Saturday. Friday is below freezing for DFW. Considering generally it is a conservative model.

Also vortmax coming down the west coast behind the air mass on the UK. Usually spells big winter storm but it doesn't go out that far. At the very least it will continue to induce SW flow aloft for Pacific moisture within the cold.

[Quixotic]

Must...curb...my....enthusiasm. Heavy snow? Always want. Bitter cold? Always want. The two together? Never seen that here. Maybe February of 1985 or one of the multitude of storms in 78. I'm sure the early 60s probably had something like it. Last time we had blizzard conditions was Christmas Eve 2009.

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET also with the Arctic Hammer....Will be interesting to read the NWS Forecast Discussions from around Texas.

Valentines Morning
https://i.imgur.com/Y7u9bLw.png

Low 20s for highs on Saturday. Friday is below freezing for DFW. Considering generally it is a conservative model.

With this kind of 500mb setup if they ran the UKMET 1 more day I would wager that an impressive winter storm will take place in Central/North Texas. Parts of South Texas will probably have the Austin Special Freezing Drizzle

[PTrackerLA]

I threw in the towel yesterday and now I'm going buy faucet covers and some foam insulation .

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW has upped the precip for Wednesday night to 50% and 50% for Thursday of freezing rain/Sleet

Temps are going to bust big time with current H/L starting tomorrow evening. looking at Wednesday highs remaining in the mid 30's with below freezing Wed night, and Thurs morning. Could see travel impacts across DFW

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC is calling for a wintery mess in the Southern Plains



Total Snowfall (24-hour Kuchera Ratio)