Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

La La land but has backing....could not draw up a better 500mb map for Southern Plains Winter weather!!! Textbook

The PV charging south tapped into the Siberian currently breaking records...MAJOR cross polar flow setup

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1673524800/1674885600-zUeksQiBD9g.png

We're only seeing glimpses of it. Still a way to go yet and maybe nuclear option! You have to like the trends though and Ensembles leading the way.

Is it the Arctic Cannon that is even stronger and more powerful compared to December 2022?

[Ntxw]

La La land but has backing....could not draw up a better 500mb map for Southern Plains Winter weather!!! Textbook

The PV charging south tapped into the Siberian currently breaking records...MAJOR cross polar flow setup

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1673524800/1674885600-zUeksQiBD9g.png

We're only seeing glimpses of it. Still a way to go yet and maybe nuclear option! You have to like the trends though and Ensembles leading the way.

Is it the Arctic Cannon that is even stronger and more powerful compared to December 2022?

More staying power with TPV sitting and spinning, cold factory. Also will reduce the chance of deep cyclogenesis to the north of us. Check out the trends of late.

[Ntxw]

In the coming days we should start seeing some impressive HP systems on the models, you know the drill! Pacific and Arctic ridge is trending towards linkage for big -EPO dive.

[Iceresistance]

This may be at +384 hours, but look at the Super Omega -NAO block with the -EPO ridge! And combine that with a Slight +PNA as the ECR and SE Ridge!


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_65-2.png

[Ntxw]

[orangeblood]

La La land but has backing....could not draw up a better 500mb map for Southern Plains Winter weather!!! Textbook

The PV charging south tapped into the Siberian currently breaking records...MAJOR cross polar flow setup

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1673524800/1674885600-zUeksQiBD9g.png

We're only seeing glimpses of it. Still a way to go yet and maybe nuclear option! You have to like the trends though and Ensembles leading the way.

Is it the Arctic Cannon that is even stronger and more powerful compared to December 2022?

This one looks even more impressive and I hate to even bring it up but IMO, looks as good/better than Feb 2021. The cold across the Arctic and Siberia is much colder than 2021, just check out the cold anomalies streaking across the Arctic into NA...we did not see this as Primed even back to that event. As Ntxw has mentioned, the ensembles are really good at seeing these in the day 10-15 window...

[Ntxw]

We're only seeing glimpses of it. Still a way to go yet and maybe nuclear option! You have to like the trends though and Ensembles leading the way.

Is it the Arctic Cannon that is even stronger and more powerful compared to December 2022?

This one looks even more impressive and I hate to even bring it up but IMO, looks as good/better than Feb 2021. The cold across the Arctic and Siberia is much colder than 2021, just check out the cold anomalies streaking across the Arctic into NA...we did not see this as Primed even back to that event. As Ntxw has mentioned, the ensembles are really good at seeing these in the day 10-15 window...

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1673524800/1674604800-8dNiS2RsiTI.png

Look at that poleward ridge in the Pacific and Arctic. I would bet the farm this potential event is much longer lasting than December.

As it looks on the GEFS classic McFarland signature look.

[orangeblood]

Is it the Arctic Cannon that is even stronger and more powerful compared to December 2022?

This one looks even more impressive and I hate to even bring it up but IMO, looks as good/better than Feb 2021. The cold across the Arctic and Siberia is much colder than 2021, just check out the cold anomalies streaking across the Arctic into NA...we did not see this as Primed even back to that event. As Ntxw has mentioned, the ensembles are really good at seeing these in the day 10-15 window...

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1673524800/1674604800-8dNiS2RsiTI.png

Look at that poleward ridge in the Pacific and Arctic. I would bet the farm this potential event is much longer lasting than December.

As it looks on the GEFS classic McFarland signature look.

https://i.imgur.com/w2osTUm.gif

https://i.imgur.com/cjkm48p.png
https://i.imgur.com/r8uA1Rm.png

Yep, agreed...hopefully everyone restocked their firewood supplies during this thaw!!!

[harp]

This place should start jumping now. Let’s pray it not another dry event!

[rwfromkansas]

Is it the Arctic Cannon that is even stronger and more powerful compared to December 2022?

This one looks even more impressive and I hate to even bring it up but IMO, looks as good/better than Feb 2021. The cold across the Arctic and Siberia is much colder than 2021, just check out the cold anomalies streaking across the Arctic into NA...we did not see this as Primed even back to that event. As Ntxw has mentioned, the ensembles are really good at seeing these in the day 10-15 window...

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1673524800/1674604800-8dNiS2RsiTI.png

Look at that poleward ridge in the Pacific and Arctic. I would bet the farm this potential event is much longer lasting than December.

As it looks on the GEFS classic McFarland signature look.

https://i.imgur.com/w2osTUm.gif

https://i.imgur.com/cjkm48p.png
https://i.imgur.com/r8uA1Rm.png

How does the initial look compare to early December's chatter? I know at first it appeared better for us with less of a +PNA and then it gradually became worse (for a longer duration event, not the initial cold...) as the ridge moved in off the west coast.

This currently shows the ridge off the coast with a nice EC ridge and trough oriented NE to SW, which would be great.

[Ntxw]

This currently shows the ridge off the coast with a nice EC ridge and trough oriented NE to SW, which would be great.

Good question, the answer right now is we don't know. The beginning parts of it is only coming into range so that's all we can see well enough. Beyond that if you look at weeklies, extended ENs, and CFSv2 is that the pattern remains favorable.

Different with December and now is the cold in December was reliant on what came over Siberia. Once you moderate it, that's it. Now there is a TPV sitting over Baffin Bay pooling cold, we can thank in part to PV displacement because of the Strat warming. It prolongs things.

[orangeblood]

This currently shows the ridge off the coast with a nice EC ridge and trough oriented NE to SW, which would be great.

Good question, the answer right now is we don't know. The beginning parts of it is only coming into range so that's all we can see well enough. Beyond that if you look at weeklies, extended ENs, and CFSv2 is that the pattern remains favorable.

Different with December and now is the cold in December was reliant on what came over Siberia. Once you moderate it, that's it. Now there is a TPV sitting over Baffin Bay pooling cold, we can thank in part to PV displacement because of the Strat warming. It prolongs things.

Euro ENS looks good too...NE Pacific ridge retrograding with ULL trough over Hawaii. This should allow cold air to get established ahead of any storm systems which should dig into US southwest with this look . Which is a textbook prolonged cold/multi overrunning type storm system 500 mb look. (if trough east of Hawaii, kicks systems east too much)

[BigB0882]

If this comes to fruition, and that’s a big if, will the SE ridge ruin any chances of fun for us in SELA? Probably too soon for specifics but that’s always a worry for me in these setups. We cashed in with the cold and ice in February 21 but it wasn’t very far to our east at all that they were MUCH warmer. The gradient was steep if I remember correctly.

[Ntxw]

If this comes to fruition, and that’s a big if, will the SE ridge ruin any chances of fun for us in SELA? Probably too soon for specifics but that’s always a worry for me in these setups. We cashed in with the cold and ice in February 21 but it wasn’t very far to our east at all that they were MUCH warmer. The gradient was steep if I remember correctly.

I would take your chances at least with cold around over this +PNA torch we've been in! Trough early January over the SE has produced little.

[bubba hotep]

Ensembles have continued to trend towards keeping the Pacific jet retracted longer. This is one of the keys to keeping a colder pattern in place longer. Also, while not a wet signal ensembles seem to support at least seasonal precipitation amounts.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ensembles have continued to trend towards keeping the Pacific jet retracted longer. This is one of the keys to keeping a colder pattern in place longer. Also, while not a wet signal ensembles seem to support at least seasonal precipitation amounts.

Won't need a ton of qpf if deep cold comes on down and we have a Northern Mexico trough.

[Ntxw]

We already know where this is all heading. But to continue looking at the stratosphere and the breakdown of the PV is pretty spectacular. Not that we need it but it was a symptom of the bottom up disruption, that will continue top down to reinforce the -AO. Another piece to having cold move into the middle latitudes. There is a distinct between good and bad La Nina/El Nino, and the AO often is the difference.





And to think the idea was perceived back in November and early December of PV dismantling, great forecast.

[harp]

We already know where this is all heading. But to continue looking at the stratosphere and the breakdown of the PV is pretty spectacular. Not that we need it but it was a symptom of the bottom up disruption, that will continue top down to reinforce the -AO. Another piece to having cold move into the middle latitudes. There is a distinct between good and bad La Nina/El Nino, and the AO often is the difference.

https://i.imgur.com/3l4kDx9.png

https://i.imgur.com/E8ldpTr.png

And to think the idea was perceived back in November and early December of PV dismantling, great forecast.

So, what you are saying is is that we are headed in the right direction….

[Ntxw]

We already know where this is all heading. But to continue looking at the stratosphere and the breakdown of the PV is pretty spectacular. Not that we need it but it was a symptom of the bottom up disruption, that will continue top down to reinforce the -AO. Another piece to having cold move into the middle latitudes. There is a distinct between good and bad La Nina/El Nino, and the AO often is the difference.

https://i.imgur.com/3l4kDx9.png

https://i.imgur.com/E8ldpTr.png

And to think the idea was perceived back in November and early December of PV dismantling, great forecast.

So, what you are saying is is that we are headed in the right direction….

Post 20th, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan...cold. Book Feb 20th on cold again. . There shouldn't be a hard thaw in Feb though.

[Cpv17]

Well Cosgrove did say a few weeks back that he thinks the cold will be more severe in late January/February than what we saw in December.