Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[orangeblood]

The pattern is ripe for a lot of opportunities the next couple of weeks. Trends my friends.

The AO is forecasted to rebound, but remain slightly negative, as is the NAO. The PNA is forecasted to decrease, but remain slightly positive. As such and to the extent these forecasts verify, there may be some chances for fun and games during the next week to week-and-a-half. IMHO temperatures will moderate mid-month. This moderation may last 1-2 weeks. However, posters in other forums suggest that we may revert to a cold and stormy pattern later in January or February.

Are you seeing things differently with regard to trends?

Moderation to what we are currently seeing and forecasted to see will still put us below normal the next few weeks. The cold air will still be around. We just need these shortwaves to dig in underneath the polar jet and the fun and games will begin.

[Ntxw]

There hasn't been much in the way of reloading period this winter that I've noticed. It just keeps coming and coming. This has been a rather unusual winter compared to as of late. Imo I think it will just continue without much of a halt through March. Srainhoutx has said stepping down many times before and it's doing just that. Also to note I don't think I've ever seen the models try to portray so many winter weather events for Texas even if they don't come true.

[wxman22]

Looks like the 12z GFS has picked up on the cold core low also the only thing diffrent though is that it has it moving through Friday/Saturday of next week vs the Euro which has it moving through Wendsday/Thursday of next week.Ofcourse timing isnt important this early on its just interesting that the gfs is starting to pick up on it also.

[srainhoutx]

Front looks to be moving quickly S. Just N of the OK/TX Panhandle at this hour...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

[Snowman67]

Front looks to be moving quickly S. Just N of the OK/TX Panhandle at this hour...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

Guymon Oklahoma reporting 27F while Amarillo is at 48F

[Tejas89]

Dalhart is reporting 59 right now? With a low of 8 tonight.

[Snowman67]

Dalhart is reporting 59 right now? With a low of 8 tonight.

one site in Amarillo is up to 56F now. Quite a variance from their neighbors just north in the Oklahoma panhandle.

[Tireman4]

Dalhart is reporting 59 right now? With a low of 8 tonight.

one site in Amarillo is up to 56F now. Quite a variance from their neighbors just north in the Oklahoma panhandle.

One will surely know when this front hits, my goodness.

[wxman22]

1130 AM CST WED JAN 6 2010

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO
9 AM CST SUNDAY. THE HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR AROUND
SUNRISE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING BY SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH OF A BRYAN TO CROCKETT LINE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S NORTH OF
AN EDNA TO HOUSTON LINE AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST. STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES
EARLY FRIDAY.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY FAIL TO REACH 32
DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY WARM INTO THE MID 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO HOUSTON TO CLEVELAND LINE AND IN THE LOWER 20S SOUTH
OF THIS LINE. EVEN THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL ENDURE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S. SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIKELY ENDURE 48
TO 60 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

FURTHER DETAILS ON THE DURATION OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PROVIDED AS THE EVENT NEARS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
SENSITIVE PLANTS AND ANIMALS WILL REQUIRE PROTECTION. A HARD
FREEZE CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO EXPOSED PIPES. BEGIN MAKING PLANS FOR
FOLKS THAT MIGHT NEED A LITTLE EXTRA HELP...ESPECIALLY THE ELDERLY
AND THE VERY YOUNG. EXTRA PROTECTIVE CLOTHING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
ANYONE EXPECTED TO BE OUTDOORS AT THESE TIMES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR COMMERCIAL
RADIO FOR THE LATEST ON THIS EVENT...OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/HOUSTON.

[southerngale]

Dalhart is reporting 59 right now? With a low of 8 tonight.

one site in Amarillo is up to 56F now. Quite a variance from their neighbors just north in the Oklahoma panhandle.

Warmer in Amarillo than in SE TX.... sitting at 45° - I wonder if we'll make it into the lower 50s as forecast.

NWS is still messing with my mind... 40% sleet/snow for tomorrow in my forecast. Little to no accumulation expected. I had already accepted the fact that I won't see any of the pretty white stuff.

[drred4]

here is a link to some weather stations/stream flow for LCRA. I use it to look at some temps in various locations west and northwest of Austin when or before I go hunting. In the select Hydromet data to display drop down menu on the left you can choose temp and precip as well as other items. double click on the map to the left to zoom in while onthe site.

http://hydromet.lcra.org/

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Extended Disco..

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
124 PM EST WED JAN 06 2010

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 09 2010 - 12Z WED JAN 13 2010

THE MOST PROMINENT FCST UNCERTAINTY DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
INVOLVES THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
WEST COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SAT AND THEN AMPLIFY INTO
THE PLAINS BY DAY 5 MON. THE PAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED
THAT THIS AMPLIFYING FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAY 7 WED... AND THE 00Z
GFS GOES ALONG WITH THIS SCENARIO AFTER SOME EARLIER RUNS WERE
FLATTER AND/OR MORE PROGRESSIVE. REMAINING MODELS AND 00Z
GEFS/12Z ECMWF-CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW AND PROGRESSIVE SHRTWV EXTREMES. WHILE NOT TO THE GEFS
MEAN EXTREME... ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLES ON AVERAGE ARE STILL MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF. MULTI-DAY MEANS SHOW
A FAIRLY PERSISTENT CORE OF POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER
SRN CANADA... WITH TELECONNECTIONS SUGGESTING A SRN CONUS MEAN
PATTERN THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE TO FAVOR A FASTER
AND/OR LESS CLOSED SOLN THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. A BLEND OF THE
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLNS PROVIDES A REASONABLE WAY TO
GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO TELECONNECTION GUIDANCE.

AS FOR OTHER FCST ISSUES... ONE OR MORE LOW CONFIDENCE IMPULSES
TRAVELING AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE ERN PAC MEAN TROF WILL AFFECT
THE WRN STATES BY MON-WED. THE 00Z GFS IS ON THE EXTREME FAST
SIDE OF THE CURRENT SOLN SPREAD WITH ITS ENERGY THAT TRAVELS OVER
THE WEST ON DAY 7 WED. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE CONUS THE 00Z
GFS/CANADIAN ARE FLATTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST BY NEXT TUE-WED. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE OFFER REASONABLE SUPPORT FOR THE ECMWF AND 00Z
GEFS/12Z ECMWF-CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.

WITH THE GFS LIKELY STARTING OUT TOO AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROF
CROSSING THE ERN CONUS/GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD... THE DAYS 3-4 SAT-SUN FCST STARTS WITH ECMWF WITH AN
INCREASING BLEND OF ECMWF ENS MEANS BY DAY 7 WED.

SERIOUS COLD OUTBREAK THREAT FOR FLORIDA AS THE NEXT COLD SURGE
DRIVES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WITH VERY LOW MID
LEVEL HTS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROF THAT HAS A NEAR -4
STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IN ITS HTS AND A -4.5 TO 5 NEG STANDARDIZED
H850 TEMP ANOMALY BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF WELL BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND DEEP INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN
FLORIDA WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI. THIS
BEGINS TO RIVAL THE DEC 1989 AND POSSIBLY THE JAN 1977 COLD
OUTBREAKS ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED ON DAY 3 BY A COLD
FRONT WITH OVERRUNNING WINTRY TYPE OF PRECIPTAION ACROSS NRN AND
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST 12 GFS CLOSING OFF OF THE MID LEVEL
CENTER COLD POOL OFFERS A THREAT OF COASTAL SNOW ACROSS NERN FL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

RAIN BEGINS TO REACH THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY CONTINUING INTO WED
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL CA COAST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EWD AND A PAC MID LEVEL FLOW DRIVES INTO THE CENTRAL WEST
COAST.

FAIR TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON INVERTED SFC TROF DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WESTERN GLFMX TUES-WED SUPPORTING A COLD RAIN FROM ERN TX INTO
LA/AR AND MS WED.

WINDY COLD ADVECTION FLOW SAT INTO MON WILL CONT TO SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SWD WHERE SNOW PLUMES
IMPACT HIGHER CENTRAL APPLCHNS RIDGES FROM SWRN PA INTO NERN TN
AND WRN NC.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

[Ntxw]

I like how the EC looks

[Portastorm]

I don't think the real Arctic air is just north of the Panhandle yet ... that front may be the initial frontal passage with the true Arctic air bleeding down several hours behind as alluded to by several NWSFOs up in that area.

Here is a link to dewpoints as of 12 noon. You can see that the real dry air is now coming down through northeastern and eastern Colorado.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/imageg.php?dispimg=/surface/dewpoint&imgname=US+Dewpoint+Temperatures

[WacoWx]

its probably the strong southerly winds preceeding the frontal passage causing temps to be higher up north.

[HockeyTx82]

Ok so with a front this cold moving in would it be considered a blue norther'? With that in mind has anyone ever really seen one move in? I have heard stories from people who claim that the sky is a darker shade of blue off to the north due to the air being very dense and cold. Is this true? Does anyone have some pictures or videos of this? To bad this front is moving in overnight........

[Snowman67]

its probably the strong southerly winds preceeding the frontal passage causing temps to be higher up north.

Actually Dalhart has been reporting winds from the NE this morning/aft and a temp of 60F at 12:53pm

[Tejas89]

Ok so with a front this cold moving in would it be considered a blue norther'?

You may not get to see the full show between already cool air in place, cloud cover and time of day (night).

I can remember a few fronts in DFW in the 80's (when these blasts were more common), where we'd drop from near 70F to mid-20's in a matter of hours. Oftentimes you could easily spot the front rolling in from the NW due to the crazy temp difference.

[srainhoutx]

I like how the EC looks

Yep...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[jasons2k]

Ok so with a front this cold moving in would it be considered a blue norther'? With that in mind has anyone ever really seen one move in? I have heard stories from people who claim that the sky is a darker shade of blue off to the north due to the air being very dense and cold. Is this true? Does anyone have some pictures or videos of this? To bad this front is moving in overnight........

Back in the 1988-1992 timeframe I lived in DFW and saw a few on those 'classic' blue northers come through. In one case it was 70-something at my house in Plano and snowing in Wichita Falls. The temp dropped 20-30 degrees in about 20-30 minutes and below freezing within a few hours.

Also, I was indeed outside during a few of these. I distinctly rememeber one of them -- it was a dead, calm still outside and I could hear the front to the north. And, yes, you could actually see a "blueness" to the sky up to the north. Rare, but I've seen it before.